September 27, 2022

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases 1.8pts to 87.8 – the highest for nearly four months since late May 2022

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9075
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was up by 1.8pts to 87.8 this week and is now a large 15.9pts below the same week a year ago, September 25/26, 2021 (103.7). In addition, Consumer Confidence is now 3pts below the 2022 weekly average of 90.8.

The increase in Consumer Confidence has mainly been driven by improving sentiment in regards to the performance of the Australian economy over the next year and five years. There was no clear trend on a State-by-State basis with NSW, Queensland and WA up for a second straight week but Victoria down for a second straight week.

Current financial conditions

  • Now 24% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to an unchanged 42% that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

Future financial conditions

  • Looking forward, now fewer than a third of Australians, 32% (down 2ppts), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while 31% (up 2ppts), expect to be ‘worse off’.

Current economic conditions

Future economic conditions

  • There has been a marked improvement in terms of sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term with over one-in-six, 17% (up 5ppts) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years (the highest figure for this indicator for over five months since mid-April) compared to 16% (down 1ppt) expecting ‘bad times’ (the lowest figure for this indicator for over seven months since mid-February).

Time to buy a major household item

  • When it comes to buying intentions now 24% (up 1ppt) of Australians, say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while almost twice as many, 45% (down 1ppt), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Senior Economist, Catherine Birch, commented:

Block Quote

Consumer confidence rose 2.1% last week, hitting a four-month high of 87.8. While confidence was still well below the neutral level of 100, at least two of the five confidence subindices exceeded 100 for the first time since early March. The increase in headline confidence was mainly driven by improved sentiment around Australia’s economic conditions. Continued strength despite 225bp of rate hikes over the past five months may be quelling fears of a sharp downturn. ANZ-observed spending data show household spending was solid in the first half of September, including on discretionary goods and services. The sharp drop in inflation expectations to a seven-month low of 5.0%, despite higher petrol prices, also likely supported confidence.

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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