November 08, 2022

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 1.2pts to 78.7 – lowest since early in the pandemic in April 2020

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9105
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 1.2pts to 78.7 this week and is now a large 30.3pts below the same week a year ago, November 6/7, 2021 (109.0). In addition, Consumer Confidence has now dropped for six straight weeks (the longest series of declines for over two years since August 2020) and is now 10.9pts below the 2022 weekly average of 89.6.

Although the broad-based decline in Consumer Confidence continued this week there was a mixed picture when looking at the States with the measure up in Victoria, Queensland, and Western Australia, but down in NSW and South Australia. Across the index the questions that drove the drop related to sentiment regarding the performance of the Australian economy going forward.

Current financial conditions

  • Now 23% of Australians (up 2ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 47% (unchanged) that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially (the equal highest figure for this indicator since March 28/29, 2020 (rounded) and the highest figure for this indicator (47.0%) to one decimal place since August 1992 – 48.4%).

Future financial conditions

  • Looking forward, just over a quarter of Australians, 29% (up 1ppt), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year while 38% (up 1ppt), expect to be ‘worse off’.

Current economic conditions

  • Only 6% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to more than two-fifths, 43% (up 2ppts), that expect ‘bad times.’

Future economic conditions

  • Sentiment regarding the Australian economy in the longer term has deteriorated this week with 11% (down 2ppts) of Australians expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 21% (up 2ppts) expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • When it comes to buying intentions now 23% (up 1ppt) of Australians, say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while more than twice as many, 50% (up 3ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

Block Quote

Consumer confidence dropped 1.5% last week as the RBA raised interest rates by 25bp. This was a sixth consecutive weekly decline in confidence, taking the index to levels last seen in early April 2020. Household inflation expectations climbed to 6.8%, its highest level since these data were first collected in April 2010. Falling confidence and rising inflation expectations creates a difficult mix for the RBA. Consumer concerns about the economy are reflected in the ‘economic conditions next year’ subindex, which has dropped seven times over the past nine weeks for a total decline of 17%. Confidence among people paying off their mortgages surprisingly increased 2.6% but remained lower than those who own their home (down 3.1%) or those renting (down 2.6%).

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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