November 25, 2022

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down 4.7pts to 80.7 in November 2022

Topic: Consumer Confidence, Press Release
Finding No: 9132
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ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was down 4.7pts to 80.7 in November.

  • The proportion of people who believe it is a ‘good time to buy’ a major household item fell 5% points to 21% while a majority of New Zealanders, 52% (up 4% points) now say it is a ‘bad time to buy’ a major household item – a net reading of -31 (down 9 points) – the lowest reading since early in 2020.
  • Inflation expectations lifted to 5.3%, from 5.0% last month.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index fell 5 points in November to 80.7, its lowest level since June. Sharp increases in the cost of living and interest rates (not to mention falling house prices) are clearly hurting confidence, but excellent job security and strong wage growth have so far seen spending hold up far better than this level of confidence would normally imply. This dynamic is likely to be on borrowed time.

Turning to the detail:

  • Perceptions of current personal financial situations lifted 2 points to -16%.
  • A net 0% expect to be better off this time next year, down 4 points.
  • A net 31% of households think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, a 9 point deterioration to the lowest level since COVID first hit.
  • Perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time deteriorated from -39% to -41%. The 5-year-ahead measure fell sharply from +1% to -9%.
  • House price inflation expectations fell from 0.5% to 0%. They are negative in Auckland, Wellington and the South Island ex Canterbury.
  • CPI inflation expectations rose from 5.0% to 5.3%, breaking a downward trend.
  • The proportion of mortgage-paying households who think it’s a good time to spend continues to be lower than renters.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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