September 30, 2022

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence unchanged at 85.4 in September 2022

Topic: Consumer Confidence, Press Release
Finding No: 9061
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ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was unchanged in September at 85.4.

  • The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item was up 3% points to 28% while those saying its a bad time to buy major household items dropped 6% points to 45% with the net overall figure increasing a significant 8 points to -17, its highest read since January (though still very low). A gap is emerging in this indicator between those with mortgages and those without.
  • Inflation expectations were little changed at 5.1%, versus 5.0% last month.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index was unchanged in September at subdued levels. Living costs are rising, house prices are falling, and mortgage rates are going up. However, the big win for households is the still super-tight labour market, which is contributing to strong job security and solid wage growth.

Turning to the detail:

  • Perceptions of current personal financial situations lifted 7 points to -18%.
  • A net 4% expect to be better off this time next year, up 3 points.
  • A net 25% of households think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item, down 8. This series bottomed in May at -30%.
  • Perceptions regarding the economic outlook in 12 months’ time improved from -35% to -32% – still pretty pessimistic. The five-year-ahead measure fell from +2% to -3%.
  • House price inflation expectations fell to just 0.5%. They are highest in Auckland (2%) and weakest in Wellington (-0.7%).
  • CPI inflation expectations held up, at 5.1% versus 5.0% last month.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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