Support for the Andrews Government up since the Victorian Election; Pesutto’s handling of Moira Deeming had a negative impact on his job approval as leader

Support for the ALP Government of Daniel Andrews in Victoria increased to 61.5% (up 6.5% points since the 2022 Victorian State Election) and is now further ahead of the L-NP Coalition on 38.5% (down 6.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis, according to a Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll conducted from May 17-22, 2023, with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,095 Victorian electors aged 18+.

The Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll shows a swing of 6.5% points to the ALP on the eve of tonight’s Victorian State Budget – the first since last year’s State Election.

Primary voting intention for the ALP is up significantly at the expense of the Liberals

Primary vote support for the ALP has increased significantly since the Victorian State Election, up 5.3% points to 42%. In contrast, support for the Liberal-National Coalition is down 6% points to 28.5%.

Support for the Greens is up 1% point to 12.5% while support for other minor parties and independents attracts 17% of the vote, almost unchanged from last year’s State Election (down 0.3% points).

Among the minor parties support for Legalise Cannabis – who are now the fifth largest party in the Victorian Parliament behind the ALP, Liberals, Nationals and Greens, attract 1.5% support, up 1.3% points since the Victorian State Election equal with the Animal Justice Party on 1.5% (down 1% point).

There are 9% of Victorian electors who support Independents (including ‘Teal Independents’), up 3.4% points since the election and a further 5% who support other parties (down 4% points).

Andrews is preferred nearly 2:1 over Opposition Leader John Pesutto as ‘Better Premier’ although approval for Premier Daniel Andrews is down since November

Electors were then asked “Thinking of Premier Daniel Andrews and Opposition Leader John Pesutto. In your opinion, who would make the ‘Better Premier’?”

Premier Daniel Andrews has a large lead over Opposition Leader John Pesutto as the preferred Premier in the first head-to-head poll Roy Morgan has conducted between the two leaders.

Now 64% of electors say Premier Daniel Andrews would make the ‘Better Premier’ compared to only 36% who say John Pesutto – a margin of 28% points in favour of the Premier.

Analysis by gender shows 68% of women preferring Premier Daniel Andrews as ‘Better Premier’ compared to only 32% supporting John Pesutto while for men it is a narrower result with 60% preferring Daniel Andrews compared to 40% supporting John Pesutto.

However, despite a big lead on ‘Better Premier’ there has been a drop in the job approval for Premier Daniel Andrews. Now 52.5% (down 5% points since November) of Victorian electors approve of the way Premier Daniel Andrews is handling his job, while 47.5% (up 5% points) disapprove.

In contrast, a majority of 53.5% of Victorian electors disapprove of the job Liberal Leader John Pesutto is doing and only a minority of 46.5% approve.

IBAC Report is a driver of Premier Daniel Andrews’ rising disapproval while Liberal Leader John Pesutto’s decision to expel Liberal MP Moira Deeming has hit his approval ratings

Electors were also asked why they disapproved, or approved, of the job performance of Premier Daniel Andrews and Liberal Leader John Pesutto.

For Premier Daniel Andrews there were many respondents who raised allegations of corruption against the Premier and the content of the IBAC (Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission) Report in which his government was heavily scrutinized and many mentioned his arrogance and being a ‘bully’.

Some examples of these comments include:

“He isn’t trustworthy. So much grey corruption involving his government and all he does is spin his way out of any accountability.”

“He is managing the state’s finances poorly, and allows ministers and staffers to interfere with the bureaucracy too often. Too much "grey area" corruption. I want a Labor government, but I think Daniel Andrews should go.”

“He’s arrogant and dismissive of real concerns, like the recent corruption report.”

“He is a full-on bully and is not responding ethically to the IBAC reports.”

“Recently he has showed he is getting too close to the dodgy line regarding the red shirts and the recent IBAC report where he said ‘that was a learning’, was not good enough. It’s time to step down Dan. I am Labor but that was the last straw. New talent needed.”

Liberal Leader John Pesutto’s decision to force the expulsion of his Liberal Party colleague Moira Deeming from the Parliamentary Liberal Party due to her attendance at a ‘Let Women Speak’ rally in mid-March, and her subsequent attempts to have Pesutto release a joint statement with her clearing her name, which led to a second, and successful, motion of expulsion have negatively impacted Pesutto’s approval ratings. Although the overwhelming majority of comments on Pesutto’s handling of Moira Deeming were negative, there was some positive feedback – mainly from non-Liberal voters.

Some examples of these comments include:

“His treatment of Moira Deeming has been disgraceful. He is a bully and wants to prevent women from speaking when we want to talk about our rights.”

“He’s not effective. And his treatment of Moira Deeming proved to everyone he’s not capable of running his own party, let alone the State of Victoria.”

“He handled the Deeming saga poorly. It seemed reactionary to protect the image of the party rather than balanced and nuanced to the competing rights issues trans/feminism and people’s right to a personal opinion.”

“He’s doing a great job in moderating the party’s views and taking some positive stances on things that I think are important especially around Deeming. He feels at times more progressive and moderate than Andrews.”

“He has only been in the position for a short period and he has been faced with the difficult position of managing Moira Deeming. I feel he gave her an option which she chose to ignore so he took the only option available.”

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says the re-elected Victorian ALP Government has hit the ground running in its third term as the opposition has descended into in-fighting rather than holding Premier Daniel Andrews and his team to account:

This special Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll was conducted with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,095 Victorian electors aged 18+ conducted from Wednesday May 17, 2023, to Monday May 22, 2023.

Full demographic breakdowns by Gender, Age, City/Country including Voting Intention and detailed quantitative and qualitative verbatim responses to the open-ended questions relating to how Victorians view the each of the two leaders are available on a subscription basis, contact Morgan Poll Manager Julian McCrann. By Email: julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com. By Phone: 9224 5365.

Victorian two-party preferred results 2018-2023

Source: Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll in Sept. 2020, Nov. 11, 2021, Nov. 24, 2021, July 2, 2022, Aug. 13, 2022, Nov. 10 & Nov. 23, 2022 and May 17-18, 2023. Roy Morgan multi-mode polls in Aug., Sept. & Oct. 2022. Base: Victorian electors aged 18+.

Victorian Two-Party Preferred Voting Intention – Trends.

Primary Voting Intention

“If a State Election for Victoria were being held today, which party would receive your first preference?"

Victorian Primary Voting Intention – Trends.

*August 2022, September 2022 and October 2022 results are from Roy Morgan surveys done throughout the months via online and telephone interviewing. Results for November 2022 & May 17-22, 2023 are from Roy Morgan Snap SMS surveys. #Includes Independents.

For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or Julian McCrann 0434 361 298 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.