Roy Morgan Research
March 31, 2023

New Zealand: National/Act on 45% are now just ahead of Labour/Greens on 43.5% but Maori Party holds the key

Topic: Federal Poll
Finding No: 9222
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Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll for March 2023 shows support for both Labour (33%) and National (32%) remaining unchanged while support dropped slightly for both of their potential coalition governing partners.

Support for the Greens was down 2% points to 10.5% while support for Act NZ was down 0.5% points to 13% in March – new Prime Minister Chris Hipkins’ second full month in the top job.

These changes meant support for both potential governing coalitions was down slightly in March with support for the Labour-led Government down 2% points to 43.5% and now just behind the support for a potential National/Act NZ governing coalition on 45%, down 0.5% points.

The results for March continue to show the New Zealand Election later in 2022 is on a knife-edge with the crossbench set to determine who will form New Zealand’s next Government.

Maori Party remains in the box seat to determine New Zealand’s next Government

The results for March suggest neither Labour/Greens nor National/Act NZ will have enough support to form a majority Government later this year and the party in the box seat to determine the next Government is the Maori Party on 2%, down 1.5% points.

Support for New Zealand First increased in March but is still short of the 5% threshold, up 1% point to 3% and not enough support to win seats in New Zealand’s next Parliament.

A further 6.5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament, up 3% points from a month ago including 3.5% (up 1% point) who support The Opportunities Party and 1% (up 0.5% points) who support the New Conservative Party.

A potential 59 seats for a National/Act NZ coalition and 58 seats for a potential Labour/Greens coalition puts the Maori Party in the box seat to determine the next New Zealand Government

If these results were repeated at this year’s New Zealand Election the National/Act NZ coalition would score 59 seats, just ahead of the 58 seats for a potential Labour/Greens coalition – not enough for a majority of 61 seats for either side of politics.

The projected results show the Maori Party with 3 seats in New Zealand’s next Parliament would be in the box seat to determine who New Zealand’s Prime Minister after this year’s election would be – either Chris Hipkins (Labour) or Christopher Luxon (National).

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 945 electors during March. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 5%, up 2.5% points, did not name a party.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating dropped 9pts to 86 in March

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped 9pts to 86 in March – reversing some of the increases seen with the change of Prime Minister over the last two months.

In March 2023 a majority of 52.5% (up 5% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to fewer than two-fifths, 38.5% (down 4% points), who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’.

Both women and men narrowly favour a National/Act NZ coalition over Labour/Greens

There is no clear result when considering the two potential coalitions by gender and age. A narrow plurality of 45% of women now favour a potential National/ Act NZ coalition, only 1% point ahead of the current governing Labour/ Greens coalition on 44%.

Interestingly, it is now women aged 18-49 who support a potential National/ Act NZ coalition on 46% compared to 39.5% who support the current governing Labour/ Greens coalition.

In contrast, women aged 50+ narrowly favour a Labour/ Greens coalition on 48% compared to 44% who support a potential National/ Act NZ coalition government.

A plurality of 44.5% of men support a potential National/ Act NZ coalition, only 1.5% points ahead of the current governing Labour/ Greens coalition on 43%.

There was a split between men of different ages. Men aged 18-49 have thrown their support behind a potential Labour/Greens coalition on 48.5% compared to 36.5% supporting National/Act NZ.

However, there was overwhelming support for a potential National/Act NZ coalition amongst men aged 50+ on 52.5% compared to only 37% supporting a Labour/Greens coalition.

Support for the Greens is far higher amongst both younger women and younger men than their older counterparts. Around one-in-seven women aged 18-49 (15%) and one-in-six men aged 18-49 (16.5%) support the Greens compared to only 7% of women aged 50+ and just 3% of men aged 50+.

The Maori Party attracts the support of 3% of women including 4% support from women aged 18-49 and 2.5% support from women aged 50+. The Maori Party attracts the support of only 1% of men including 1.5% of men aged 18-49 and 1% of men aged 50+.

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

  Total Women Men
  All 18-49 50+ All 18-49 50+
  % % % % % % %
Labour 33 33 24.5 41 33 32 34
Greens 10.5 11 15 7 10 16.5 3
Labour/ Greens 43.5 44 39.5 48 43 48.5 37
               
National 32 34.5 34.5 34.5 29.5 26 33.5
Act NZ 13 10.5 11.5 9.5 15 10.5 19
National/ Act NZ 45 45 46 44 44.5 36.5 52.5
               
Maori Party 2 3 4 2.5 1 1.5 1
NZ First 3 2 1 3 4.5 4 5
Others 6.5 6 9.5 2.5 7 9.5 4.5
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
               
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
Right Direction 38.5 37 37 36.5 40.5 46 34
Wrong Direction 52.5 53.5 58 49 51.5 45 58.5
Government Confidence Rating 86 83.5 79 87.5 89 101 75.5
Can’t say 9 9.5 5 14.5 8 9 7.5
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is lowest for older men at only 75.5 in March

The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating fell significantly in March, down 9pts to 86 with the largest fall amongst younger women.

Among women overall now a majority of 53.5% (up 8% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while 37% (down 6.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of only 83.5 (down 14.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 was down significantly by 25pts to 79 while it was down by 3.5pts to 87.5 for women aged 50+.

A slim majority of men, 51.5% (up 2% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while just over two-fifths of men, 40.5% (down 1% point), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 89 (down 3pts). The Government Confidence Rating of younger men aged 18-49 was down 8.5pts to 101 while for older men aged 50+ it was at only 75.5, up by 3.5pts.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says support for both major parties was unchanged in March but neither a Labour-Greens coalition nor a National-Act NZ coalition currently has the level of support required for a clear election victory in October:

Block Quote

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows support for a potential National-Act NZ coalition at 45% (down 0.5% points) in March now just ahead of a potential Labour-led Government in coalition with the Greens at 43.5% (down 2% points).

“If these results were repeated at this year’s New Zealand Election National/Act NZ would hold 59 seats and Labour/Greens would hold 58 seats – leaving the Maori Party on 2% support (and a projected 3 seats) in the box seat to determine who would form Government.

“However, there is growing concern that New Zealand may already be in a recession – its first for three years. The latest Stats NZ figures on the New Zealand economy show GDP contracted by 0.6% in the December quarter 2022 – the sharpest contraction for just over a year.

“The key Roy Morgan indicators continue to show weakness in March. The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence figure for March 2023 is 77.7, down 2.1pts from February. The indicator averaged 80.0 in the December quarter 2022 and has averaged only 80.3 during the March quarter 2023 – barely changed.

“As well as near record low Consumer Confidence, the latest Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has plunged 9pts to 86 in March – erasing much of the gains made earlier this year and following the resignation of former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.

“Now a majority of 52.5% (up 5% points from February) of electors say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to only 38.5% (down 4% points) that say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’.

“The driving factor behind this negative sentiment is the rapid increases to interest rates over the past 18 months. Since late 2021 the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has increased interest rates from a record low of 0.25% to 4.75% – an overall increase of 4.5% points since October 2021.

“Official interest rates in New Zealand are over 1% point higher than in Australia (3.6%) – which managed GDP growth of 0.5% in the December quarter 2022. As long as inflation in New Zealand remains high (currently at 7.2% in the 12 months to December 2022) interest rates are likely to stay at an elevated rate and cause more economic pain throughout the rest of the year.

“These economic challenges are set to play the key role in this year’s election and if conditions remain fragile this should help Opposition Leader Christopher Luxon make the argument that National are the better economic managers and should be returned to power.

“However, the latest polling results show that as things stand this year’s New Zealand election remains far too close to call six months before polling day.”

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-23

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – March 2023.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 936.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – March 2023.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 936
.

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – March 2023.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 936.

Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

  Labour Party-led Government

(Labour, Greens)

Parliamentary
Opposition Parties
(National & Act NZ)
NZ Election, October 17, 2020* 57.87 33.17
ROY MORGAN NEW ZEALAND POLL    
Labour wins the NZ Election and, despite securing a majority of seats in Parliament,
signs a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens – October 31, 2020
2021    
January 2021 58.5 34
February 2021 58.5 36.5
March 2021 57.5 34
April 2021 55 38.5
May 2021 56 37.5
June 2021 51 41
July 2021 49.5 42
August 2021 51.5 38
September 2021 55 39
October 2021 50 42
November 2021 46.5 44
December 2021 44 50
2022    
January 2022 43.5 48.5
February 2022 43 49.5
March 2022 42.5 47
April 2022 44 47.5
May 2022 43 50
June 2022 43.5 48.5
July 2022 44.5 46
August 2022 44 46
September 2022 42 48.5
October 2022 44.5 44.5
November 2022 37.5 50
December 2022 38.5 49.5
2023    
January 2023 42 45.5
February 2023 45.5 45.5
March 2023 43.5 45

*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the October 17, 2020, General Election:

PARTY VOTE Labour Green Party* National ACT NZ Maori Party** NZ First TOP** Other
ELECTIONS % % % % % % % %
                 
October 12, 1996* 28.19 10.10 33.87 6.10 n/a 13.35 n/a 8.39
November 27, 1999 38.74 5.16 30.50 7.04 n/a 4.26 n/a 14.30
July 27, 2002 41.26 7.00 20.93 7.14 n/a 10.38 n/a 13.29
September 17, 2005 41.10 5.30 39.10 1.51 2.12 5.72 n/a 5.15
November 8, 2008 33.99 6.72 44.93 3.65 2.39 4.07 n/a 4.25
November 26, 2011 27.48 11.06 47.31 1.07 1.43 6.59 n/a 5.06
September 20, 2014 25.13 10.70 47.04 0.69 1.32 8.66 n/a 6.46
September 23, 2017 36.89 6.27 44.45 0.50 1.18 7.20 2.44 1.07
October 17, 2020 50.01 7.86 25.58 7.59 1.17 2.60 1.51 3.70
ROY MORGAN POLL                
December 2020 44 10.5 28 10 2 2 2 1.5
2021                
January 2021 47 11.5 25 9 2 2 1.5 2
February 2021 45 13.5 29 7.5 1 1.5 1 1.5
March 2021 45.5 12 23 11 1 2.5 2 3
April 2021 41.5 13.5 29.5 9 2.5 1 0.5 2.5
May 2021 45 11 28.5 9 1.5 2 1.5 1.5
June 2021 38.5 12.5 29.5 11.5 2.5 1.5 2 2
July 2021 39.5 10 29 13 2.5 2 3 1
August 2021 39.5 12 25 13 2.5 2.5 2 3.5
September 2021 45.5 9.5 23 16 2 1.5 1.5 1
October 2021 39.5 10.5 26 16 2 2.5 1 2.5
November 2021 36 10.5 26.5 17.5 3 2.5 1.5 2.5
December 2021 35.5 8.5 31.5 18.5 1 2 1 2
2022                
January 2022 33 10.5 35 13.5 2.5 2.5 1.5 1.5
February 2022 32 11 38 11.5 2 2 1 2.5
March 2022 32 10.5 38 9 2 4 1.5 3
April 2022 33.5 10.5 37.5 10 1.5 2.5 2 2.5
May 2022 31.5 11.5 40 10 1 3 1 2
June 2022 33.5 10 39 9.5 1.5 1.5 2 3
July 2022 34 10.5 35 11 4 1.5 2.5 1.5
August 2022 35 9 35.5 10.5 5 1.5 1 2.5
September 2022 29.5 12.5 36 12.5 3.5 1 2.5 2.5
October 2022 29 15.5 32 12.5 3 3.5 3 1.5
November 2022 25.5 12 39 11 4 3.5 2.5 2.5
December 2022 27.5 11 35 14.5 4 4 2.5 1.5
2023                
January 2023 30 12 32 13.5 4.5 5 1.5 1.5
February 2023 33 12.5 32 13.5 3.5 2 2.5 1
March 2023 33 10.5 32 13 2 3 3.5 3

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties.
**The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Seat Predictor

The following table compares the projected seats to be won by the various New Zealand political parties based on the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the results from previous MMP Elections:

SEAT COUNT ELECTIONS Labour Green Party* National ACT NZ Maori Party** NZ First Other
% % % % % % %
October 12, 1996* 37 0 44 8 0 17 14*
November 27, 1999 49 7 39 9 0 5 11*
July 27, 2002 52 9 27 9 0 13 10*
September 17, 2005 50 6 48 2 4 7 4*
November 8, 2008 43 9 58 5 5 0 2*
November 26, 2011 34 14 59 1 3 8 2*
September 20, 2014 32 14 60 1 2 11 1*
September 23, 2017 46 8 56 1 0 9 0
October 17, 2020 65 10 33 10 2 0 0
ROY MORGAN SEAT PREDICTOR              
2021              
May 2021 57 14 36 11 2 0 0
June 2021 49 16 37 15 3 0 0
July 2021 50 13 37 17 3 0 0
August 2021 51 16 33 17 4 0 0
September 2021 57 12 29 20 2 0 0
October 2021 51 13 33 20 3 0 0
November 2021 46 14 34 22 4 0 0
December 2021 45 11 40 23 1 0 0
2022              
January 2022 42 13 45 17 3 0 0
February 2022 41 14 48 15 2 0 0
March 2022 42 14 50 12 2 0 0
April 2022 43 13 49 13 2 0 0
May 2022 40 15 51 13 1 0 0
June 2022 43 13 50 12 2 0 0
July 2022 43 13 45 14 5 0 0
August 2022 44 12 45 13 6 0 0
September 2022 38 16 46 16 4 0 0
October 2022 38 20 42 16 4 0 0
November 2022 34 16 51 14 5 0 0
December 2022 36 14 46 19 5 0 0
2023              
January 2023 37 15 40 17 5 6 0
February 2023 42 16 41 17 4 0 0
March 2023 44 14 42 17 3 0 0

*Other seats won at elections from 1996 - 2014 include: 1996 – 14 seats: Alliance (13 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 1999 – 11 seats: Alliance (10 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 2002 – 10 seats: United Future (8 seats) & Progressive (2 seats); 2005 – 4 seats: United Future (3 seats) & Progressive (1 seat); 2008 – 2 seats: Progressive (1 seat) & United Future (1 seat); 2011 – 2 seats: United Future (1 seat) & Mana Party (1 seat); 2014 – 1 seat: United Future (1 seat).

Fourth National Government (1990 – 1999): 1996 NZ Election: National (44 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (17 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.

Fifth Labour Government (1999-2008): 1999 NZ Election: Labour (49 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with Alliance (10 seats) and the support of the Greens (7 seats) for a total of 66 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2002 NZ Election: Labour (52 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (2 seats) and confidence and supply from United Future (8 seats) for a total of 62 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2005 NZ Election: Labour (50 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (1 seat) and confidence and supply from New Zealand First (7 seats) and United Future (3 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).

Fifth National Government (2008-2017): 2008 NZ Election: National (58 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Act NZ (5 seats), the Maori Party (5 seats) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 69 seats in the 122 seat Parliament (including 2 ‘overhang’ seats). 2011 NZ Election: National (59 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (3 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat). 2014 NZ Election: National (60 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (2 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).

Sixth Labour Government (2017-?): 2017 NZ Election: Labour (46 seats) ‘wins’ the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (9 seats) and the confidence and supply of the Greens (8 seats) for a total of 63 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2020 NZ Election: Labour (65 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the cooperation of the Greens (10 seats) for a total of 75 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.

For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:

Roy Morgan Enquiries
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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