May 30, 2023

Roy Morgan Update May 30, 2023 – Consumer Confidence, The Voice & Federal Vote

Topic: Press Release
Finding No: 9364
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In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Consumer Confidence, The Voice & Federal Vote.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly Update – and the latest results from a special Roy Morgan Poll on ‘The Voice’.

But first, a look at the key weekly indicators. Support is holding up for the Government despite other indicators moving in a negative direction.

Support for the Albanese Government was unchanged at 55.5% on a two-party preferred basis while support for the Coalition was unchanged at 44.5%.

This is still up about 3.5% points on last year’s Federal Election result which the ALP won with 52.1% of the vote.

However, Government Confidence dropped 5 points to 88.5 this week. Now 48.5% of Australians (up 3% points) say the country is ‘Heading in the Wrong Direction’ and only 37% (down 2% points) say the ‘Right Direction’.

Consumer Confidence was down this week, by 1.1 points to 76.2.  Consumer Confidence has now spent 13 weeks below the mark of 80 – the longest period at recession levels since the index begun.

Consumer Confidence remains clearly the lowest for people Paying Off Their Home at only 70.2.

However, the biggest drop this week was for people Renting – down 6.6 points to 77.3. This drop came after a post-Budget bounce for this group following the increased JobSeeker payments.

And ahead of next week’s crucial Reserve Bank meeting on interest rates we look at the key indicator of Inflation Expectations.

Australians now expect annual inflation of 5.3% over each of the next two years – that’s up 0.2% this week.

Inflation Expectations are once again in line with the 5.3% average so far this year – and well below the high of 6.8% reached in early November last year.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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