Roy Morgan Research
February 01, 2024

Prabowo (43%) surges to within sight of a possible victory in the first round of Presidential Election in mid-February

Topic: Press Release
Finding No: 9414

The latest Roy Morgan Poll on 2024 Indonesian Presidential voting intention shows 2019 runner-up Prabowo Subianto has surged into a strong lead on 43% (up 13% points since September quarter 2023) and is on the verge of winning the Presidential Election in the first round according to surveying conducted in December 2023 with 1,255 Indonesian electors aged 17+.

Prabowo has a large lead over challengers Ganjar Pranowo on 30% (down 8% points) and Anies Baswedan on 24% (down 1% point) who are both still in contention to finish second – but that might not be enough to prevent Prabowo’s victory in the first round of voting on February 14, 2024.

Only 3% (down 4% points) of Indonesian electors can’t decide between any of these candidates.

The surveying for this poll was conducted after the three candidates officially announced their Vice-Presidential running mates and registered with the General Elections Commission to confirm their candidacy in late October 2023.

The Anies Baswedan–Muhaimin Iskandar and Ganjar Pranowo–Mahfud MD pairs officially registered with the General Elections Commission on 19 October 2023 and the Prabowo Subianto–Gibran Rakabuming pair officially registered a few days later on 25 October 2023.

The choice of vice-presidential running has had a clear impact on the latest results with support for Prabowo jumping substantially after the candidate selected the Mayor of Surakarta (Solo) Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the eldest son of popular incumbent President Joko Widodo, as his running mate.

Prabowo’s selection of Gibran has undercut support for PDI-P candidate Ganjar and also reduced the number of Indonesians who couldn’t decide between the three candidates.

The race between these three candidates has party coalitions lining up behind each of them – these parties are all standing in the Indonesian Legislative Elections which will be held on the same day as the Indonesian Presidential Election – February 14, 2024.

Prabowo leads the Advanced Indonesia Coalition which consists of Gerindra (21.5% support), Demokrat (11.5%), Golkar (10.5%), PSI (3%), PAN (2.5%) and minor parties PBB, Garuda, Gelora and PA all with negligible support – a total of 49% support (up 9.5% points since September quarter 2023) spread between the nine parties.

Ganjar leads the Alliance of Political Parties which consists of the PDI-P (26.5% support), PPP (2%), Perindo (0.5%) and Hanura (negligible support) – a total of 29% support (down 9% points since September quarter 2023) spread between the four parties.

Anies leads the Coalition of Change for Unity which consists of PKS (9% support), PKB (6.5%), NasDem (3%) and minor parties Ummat, PDA, SIRA and PAS Aceh all with negligible support – a total of 18.5% support (down 0.5% points since September quarter 2023) spread between the seven parties.

President Joko Widodo, who won the election in 2014 and re-election five years later in 2019, is term limited and prevented from running for the position again this year.

The Indonesian general elections, including Presidential and legislative, are due to be held in two weeks on February 14, 2024, with run-off elections scheduled four months later for mid-June 2024 if required.

Prabowo now leads strongly in Java, Sumatra, Sulawesi and Kalimantan

Minister of Defence and leading presidential candidate Prabowo has now surged into the lead in all the main population centres around Indonesia. Prabowo leads strongly on Indonesia’s most populated island of Java with 41% support, 8% points ahead of Ganjar (33%) and 16% points ahead of Anies (25%).

However, in Central Java (Jawa Tengah), the home province of Ganjar, the PDI-P candidate maintains a clear lead on 56% well ahead of Prabowo (40%) with Anies well behind on only 4%.

Prabowo has a larger lead on Indonesia’s second most populated island of Sumatra, with Prabowo capturing almost half the vote on 49%, almost double second placed Anies (26%) and more than double Ganjar (23%).

Prabowo also has the advantage on Indonesia’s two next most populated islands of Sulawesi and Kalimantan. On Sulawesi it is Prabowo (56%) in front of Ganjar (24%) and Anies (17%) and on the island of Kalimantan Prabowo (28%) leads both Anies (23%) and Ganjar (14%).

Legislature Voting Intention (December 2023): PDI-P lead reduced over Gerindra and Demokrats

In the latest Roy Morgan Poll shows President Jokowi’s political party the PDI-P with support of 26.5% (down 8% points since the September quarter 2023) in December and now just ahead of second-placed Gerindra on 21.5% (up 5% points).

In third place is the Demokrat Party on 11.5% (down 0.5% points) just ahead of Golkar on 10.5% (up 2.5% points) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) on 9% (down 1% point).

Other parties attracting less than 7% support include PKB on 6.5% (up 1.5% points), NasDem on 3% (down 1% point), the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI) on 3% (up 2.5% points), the National Mandate Party (PAN) on 2.5% (up 0.5% points), the United Development Party (PPP) on 2% (down 0.5% points), the Indonesian Unity Party (Perindo) on 0.5% (down 0.5% points) and a suite of other minor parties with less than 0.5% support.

Ira Soekirman, Director Roy Morgan Indonesia, says Prabowo’s choice of Jokowi’s son Gibran as his vice-presidential running mate has proved to be a masterstroke with the incumbent Defence Minister surging to the brink of possible victory in the first round of the Presidential election:

Block Quote

“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Indonesian voting intentions at the upcoming Presidential and legislative elections shows Defence Minister Prabowo surging into a clear lead on 43% – up a stunning 13% points since the September quarter 2023 – the last published Roy Morgan Indonesia survey results.

“To win a first round election victory a Presidential candidate must receive more than 50% of the vote in the first round with a minimum 20% in half of all the provinces. Prabowo’s surge means he is within sight of possibly achieving a first round victory.

“Prabowo’s selection of Jokowi’s son Gibran as his vice-presidential running mate in late October has significantly boosted his support and undercut the support of previous favourite, PDI-P candidate Ganjar – now on 30% (down 8% points from September quarter 2023). In third place is Anies on 24% (down 1% point from September quarter 2023).

“As support for Prabowo has surged, so has support for the parties in Prabowo’s eight-party ‘Advanced Indonesia Coalition’ up 9.5% points to 49% – almost into majority. The coalition is led by Prabowo’s party Gerindra and joined by Golkar, Demokrats, PAN, PSI, PBB, Garuda and Gelora.

“Support for second placed Ganjar’s ‘Alliance of Political Parties Supporting Ganjar Pranowo’ has dropped away – down 9% points to 29% as fortunes have shifted. The coalition is led by the governing PDI-P and joined by the PPP, Hanura and Perindo.

“Anies is supported by a four-party coalition including Nasdem, PKB, PKS and Ummat. There are also several supporting parties from the autonomous Indonesian province of Aceh at the northern tip of the island of Sumatra supporting Anies. Support for this coalition has barely changed over the last few months and now at 18.5%, down 0.5% points.

“When it comes to the legislative elections it is President Jokowi’s Party of Democratic Struggle (PDI-P) with over a quarter of the support (26.5%) that still holds the lead – although this is down by a large 8% points since September quarter 2023. Support for second-placed Gerindra (Prabowo’s party) has surged, up 5% points to 21.5%.

“There are three parties vying for third place including Demokrat (11.5%), Golkar (10.5%) and PKS (9%) while a further 21% of electors support other parties.”

Electors were asked: "If general elections for members of DPR were being held today, for which party's candidate would you vote?" And for the Presidential poll Which one of these three candidates would you be most likely to vote for as President and Vice-President in the next election?”

Finding No. 9414 – This Roy Morgan Poll on Indonesian Presidential and Parliamentary voting intention was conducted from October - December 2023 with an Indonesian-wide cross-section of 2,561 electors aged 17+ Face-to-face interviews were conducted in 17 provinces, with effort made to ensure a balanced sample representing the electorate both geographically and demographically. There were 7% of electors in the Presidential poll and 1.5% of electors in the legislative poll couldn’t say who they support.

For further information:

Ira Soekirman:+62 21 5297 1562

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2
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