PDI-P’s Ganjar (38%) has the edge over Prabowo (30%) and Anies (25%) in three-way Presidential race
The latest Roy Morgan Poll on 2024 Indonesian Presidential voting intention shows Governor of Central Java province Ganjar Pranowo on 38% (up 10% points since March quarter 2023) is clearly the leading candidate according to surveying conducted in July – September 2023 with 2,630 Indonesian electors aged 17+.
Ganjar, who is the candidate for incumbent President Joko Widodo’s Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) was well ahead of 2019 runner-up Prabowo Subianto on 30% (up 13% points) and former Governor of Jakarta, Anies Rasyid Baswedan on 25% (up 10% points).
Only 7% of Indonesian electors can’t decide between any of the three leading candidates and nominated another candidate who is unlikely to be in the running.
The surveying for this poll was conducted before the three leading candidates officially announced their Vice-Presidential running mates and registered with the General Elections Commission to confirm their candidacy in late October 2023.
The choice of vice-presidential running mates is set to have a significant impact on the results of the Indonesian Presidential Election.
The Anies Baswedan–Muhaimin Iskandar and Ganjar Pranowo–Mahfud MD pairs officially registered with the General Elections Commission on 19 October 2023 and the Prabowo Subianto–Gibran Rakabuming pair officially registered the next week on 25 October 2023.
The race has consolidated around these three candidates with party coalitions lining up behind each candidate. These parties are all standing in the Indonesian Legislative Elections which will be held on the same day as the Indonesian Presidential Election – February 14, 2024.
Ganjar leads the Alliance of Political Parties which consists of the PDI-P (34.5% support), PPP (2.5%), Perindo (1%) and Hanura (negligible support) – a total of 38% support spread between the four parties.
Prabowo leads the Advanced Indonesia Coalition which consists of Gerindra (16.5% support), Demokrat (12%), Golkar (8%), PAN (2%) and minor parties PSI, PBB, Garuda, Gelora and PA all with negligible support – a total of 39.5% support spread between the nine parties.
Anies leads the Coalition of Change for Unity which consists of PKS (10% support), NasDem (4%), PKB (5%) and minor parties Unmat, PDA, SIRA and PAS Aceh all with negligible support – a total of 19% support spread between the seven parties.
The three main candidates officially announced their Vice-Presidential running mates and registered with the General Elections Commission to confirm their candidacy in late October 2023.
President Joko Widodo, who won election in 2014 and re-election five years later in 2019, is term limited and prevented from running for the position again next year.
The Indonesian general elections, including Presidential and legislative, are due to be held on February 14, 2024, with run-off elections scheduled four months later for mid-June 2024 if required.
Ganjar leads strongly in Java while Prabowo is level pegging with Ganjar in Sumatra
The PDI-P’s Ganjar leads strongly on Indonesia’s most populated island of Java with 41% support, over 10% points ahead of challengers Prabowo (29%) and Anies (25%).
However, on Indonesia’s second most populated island of Sumatra, home to 60 million people, it is a tie between Prabowo (33%) and Ganjar (33%) with Anies (28%) close behind in third.
Minister of Defence Prabowo has the advantage on Indonesia’s two next most populated islands with around 20 million people each – Sulawesi and Kalimantan. On Sulawesi it is Prabowo (42%) in front of Ganjar (33%) and Anies (22%) and Prabowo (30%) also leads narrowly over Ganjar (25%) and Anies (25%) on the island of Kalimantan.
Legislature Voting Intention (July–Sep. 2023): PDI-P well ahead of Gerindra and Demokrats
Today’s Roy Morgan Poll shows President Jokowi’s political party the PDI-P with support of 34.5% in July – September 2023 and over twice the support of Gerindra, the party of Presidential candidate Prabowo, now in second place with 16.5% support.
In third place is the Demokrat Party on 12% followed by the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) on 10%, Golkar on 8% and the National Awakening Party (PKB) on 5%.
Other parties attracting 4% support or less include NasDem on 4%, the United Development Party (PPP) on 1.5%, the National Mandate Party (PAN) on 2%, the Indonesian Unity Party (Perindo) on 1% and a suite of other minor parties with less than 0.5% support.
Michele Levine, Chief Executive Officer, Roy Morgan says the Indonesian Presidential and legislative elections are in just over two months (February 14, 2024) and the clear favourite to become Indonesia’s next President is PDI-P candidate Ganjar:
“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Indonesian voting intentions at the upcoming Presidential and legislative elections shows the former Governor of Central Java, Ganjar, on 38% support, is still in prime position to replace current President Jokowi – also from the Party of Democratic Struggle (PDI-P).
“Ganjar holds a significant lead over current Defence Minister Prabowo (30%) and the former Governor of Jakarta, Anies (25%) – although none of the three candidates are within striking distance of a majority of support. This means a run-off election four months later in mid-June is likely.
“The three candidates officially registered their campaigns, and their Vice-Presidential running mates, with the General Elections Commission in late October. Ganjar is running with Coordinating Minister for Political, Legal and Security Affairs Mahfud MD, Anies is running with Deputy Speaker Muhaimin Iskandar and, most interestingly, Prabowo is running with Gibran Rakabuming, Mayor of Surakarta and son of current President Jokowi.
“Party coalitions have coalesced around the three candidates in recent months with Ganjar heading a four-party coalition known as the ‘Alliance of Political Parties Supporting Ganjar Pranowo.’ The coalition consists of the PDI-P, United Development Party (PPP), the People’s Conscience Party (Hanura) and the Indonesian Unity Party (Perindo). Together these four parties are attracting the support of 38% of electors ahead of the legislative elections.
“Second placed Prabowo leads an eight-party coalition called the ‘Advanced Indonesia Coalition’. This coalition includes his own party Gerindra (Great Indonesian Movement Party), as well as Golkar (Party of Functional Groups), Demokrats, PAN (National Mandate Party), PSI (Solidarity Party), PBB (Crescent Star Party), Garuda (Change Indonesia Guardian Party) and Gelora (Indonesian People’s Wave Party). Together these eight parties are attracting the support of 39.5% of electors ahead of the legislative elections.
“The outsider and independent candidate, Anies, is heading up a four-party coalition including Nasdem, PKB (National Awakening Party), PKS (Prosperous Justice Party) and Ummat. There are also several supporting parties from the autonomous Indonesian province of Aceh at the northern tip of the island of Sumatra supporting Anies. Together these parties are attracting the support of 19% of electors ahead of the legislative elections.
“The PDI-P, which is backing Ganjar, is the most powerful party in the Indonesian legislature and currently holds 128 seats in the legislature – more than 40 seats more than second placed Golkar (85 seats). Importantly, the support of the PDI-P, has propelled their chosen candidate, Ganjar, into a sizeable lead on Indonesia’s most important and populous island of Java with 41% support, over 10% points ahead of either Prabowo (29%) or Anies (25%).
“When it comes to the legislative elections, due to be held at the same time in mid-February, it is the President Jokowi’s, and candidate Ganjar’s, Party of Democratic Struggle (PDI-P) with over a third of the support – 34.5%. This is more than double the support of the second-placed Gerindra (16.5%), third-placed Demokrat on 12% and fourth-placed PKS (10%).
“The results of this Roy Morgan poll conducted shows there is set to be a continuation of the current policies of President Joko Widodo with his party the PDI-P set to be the big winners at next year’s election.”
Electors were asked: "If general elections for members of DPR were being held today, for which party's candidate would you vote?" And for the Presidential poll "I am going to show you a list of candidates for President and Vice-President. Which one would you be most likely to vote for as President and Vice-President in the next election?”
Finding No. 9379 – This Roy Morgan Poll on Indonesian Presidential and Parliamentary voting intention was conducted from April – June 2023 with an Indonesian-wide cross-section of 2,635 electors aged 17+ and from July – September 2023 with an Indonesian-wide cross-section of 2,630 electors aged 17+. Face-to-face interviews were conducted in 17 provinces, with effort made to ensure a balanced sample representing the electorate both geographically and demographically. There were 9% of electors in the Presidential poll and 1.5% of electors in the legislative poll couldn’t say who they support.
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Indonesian Presidential Voting Intention
| Presidential Candidates & Potential People to Vote For | Dec. Qtr. 2022 | March Qtr. 2023 | June Qtr. 2023 | Sept. Qtr. 2023 |
| % | % | % | % | |
| Ganjar Pranowo | 27 | 28 | 29 | 38 |
| Prabowo Subianto | 17 | 17 | 17 | 30 |
| Anies Rasyid Baswedan | 17 | 15 | 19 | 25 |
| Others | 39 | 40 | 35 | 7 |
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Indonesian Presidential Voting Intention – By Province/ Island*
| By Island* | ||||||
| Presidential Candidates & Potential People to Vote For | Electors | *Island of Java | *Island of Sumatra | *Island of Sulawesi | *Island of Kalimantan | Bali |
| % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| Ganjar Pranowo | 38 | 41 | 33 | 33 | 25 | 63 |
| Prabowo Subianto | 30 | 29 | 33 | 42 | 30 | 19 |
| Anies Rasyid Baswedan | 25 | 25 | 28 | 22 | 25 | 4 |
| Others | 7 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 14 |
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Note: The percentage of electors saying ‘Can’t say’ for each island was as follows: Java (8%), Sumatra (12%), Sulawesi (1%), Kalimantan (18%) and Bali (24%).
Indonesian Legislative Voting Intention Trends (June Qtr. 2021 – September Qtr. 2022)
| Political Parties | Legislative Election April 2019 | June Qtr. 2021 | Sept. Qtr. 2021 | Dec. Qtr. 2021 | March Qtr. 2022 | June Qtr. 2022 | Sept. Qtr. 2022 |
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| PDI-P | 19.3 | 32 | 30 | 32 | 34.5 | 33.5 | 36 |
| Gerindra | 12.6 | 14.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 |
| Demokrat | 7.8 | 13.5 | 18.5 | 13.5 | 12 | 13 | 11.5 |
| PKS | 8.2 | 8.5 | 8 | 7 | 7.5 | 8 | 7 |
| Golkar | 12.3 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 11 | 11 | 10.5 | 9 |
| PKB | 9.7 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 5.5 |
| NasDem | 9.1 | 1.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 3 | 2.5 | 4 |
| PPP | 4.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 1.5 | 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 |
| PAN | 6.8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1.5 | 2 | 1.5 |
| Perindo | 2.7 | 0.5 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 1 | 1 |
| Others* | 7 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 6 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Indonesian Legislative Voting Intention Trends (December Qtr. 2022 – September Qtr. 2023)
| Political Parties | Legislative Election April 2019 | Dec. Qtr. 2022 | March Qtr. 2023 | June Qtr. 2023 | Sept. Qtr. 2023 |
| % | % | % | % | % | |
| PDI-P | 19.3 | 33 | 34.5 | 32 | 34.5 |
| Gerindra | 12.6 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 16.5 |
| Demokrat | 7.8 | 12.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 12 |
| PKS | 8.2 | 8 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 10 |
| Golkar | 12.3 | 10 | 9 | 9.5 | 8 |
| PKB | 9.7 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 5 |
| NasDem | 9.1 | 4.5 | 3 | 3.5 | 4 |
| PPP | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| PAN | 6.8 | 2 | 2 | 1.5 | 2 |
| Perindo | 2.7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Others* | 7 | 4 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| TOTAL | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
