Roy Morgan Update July 25, 2023: Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence & Mortgage Stress

In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Federal Vote, Consumer Confidence & Mortgage Stress.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly Update.

First up is politics, and for the third straight week the political momentum is all in one direction – in favour of the Coalition.

After winning the Fadden by-election the Coalition has gained further ground on the Labour Government.

On a two-party preferred basis support for the Albanese Government is down another 1% to 52%, and now just ahead of the Coalition on 48%, up 1%.

This is the closest result so far this year and is virtually the same as last year’s election result which gave the ALP a bare majority of 1 seat.

For the first time this year a majority of men favour the Coalition (51.5% to 48.5%), while in the States the Coalition now leads in New South Wales (51% to 49%) and Queensland (53.5% to 46.5%).

However, despite ALP Premier Daniel Andrews cancellation of the Commonwealth Games the Albanese Government still leads in Victoria (55.5% to 44.5%) and leads even more strongly in Western Australia (58.5% to 41.5%) on a two-party preferred basis.

This week West Australians in the State electorate of Rockingham, until now held by former Premier Mark McGowan, will vote for a new candidate in a test of the State Government’s standing. The key issue will be the Aboriginal Cultural Heritage Act.

In better news Government Confidence – whether people think the country is going in the right direction or the wrong direction – is up by 1 point to 81.

This is below the neutral level of 100 because a majority of 51.5% of Australians still believe the country is ‘Heading in the Wrong Direction’ – and just under a third, 32.5%, say the ‘Right Direction’.

There was more good news with Consumer Confidence increasing 2.6 points to 75.2 – the highest it has been since early June.

The increase came after the Federal Government decided not to re-appoint current RBA Governor Phil Lowe and replace him with long-time deputy Michele Bullock who will become the RBA’s first female Governor in September.

Despite the increase, Consumer Confidence has now spent 21  weeks below 80 – fast approaching a record period at this mark and the longest period at these recessionary levels since 1990-91.

The big driver of the increase this week was Renters – Their Consumer Confidence was up 7.9 points to 79.3.

There was a small increase for People Paying Off Their Homes – but this group (the mortgage holders) still has clearly the lowest Consumer Confidence at only 69.1 and also a small decrease for Home Owners.

There was also better news on the inflation front this week with the index dropping 0.2% points to 5.4%.

Australians now expect annual inflation to be 5.4% over each of the next two years.

The ABS is set to release its monthly, and quarterly, inflation results for the year to June 2023 later this week which will have a large impact on next week’s RBA interest rates meeting.

It’s worth remembering that the ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations series showed a rise in Inflation Expectations during the month of June and this has often been a leading indicator of the ABS results released a month later.