November 21, 2023

Roy Morgan Update November 21, 2023: ALP Support drops, Consumer Confidence & Mortgage Stress

Topic: Press Release
Finding No: 9539
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In this week's Market Research Update, we present the latest data on Primary Voting Intention, Consumer Confidence & Mortgage Stress.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly Update.

And today we see support for the Albanese Government dropped for the third straight week in mid-November, down 0.5% to 49.5% on a two-party preferred basis and behind the Liberal-National Coalition on 50.5%

Roy Morgan Government Confidence saw an increase of 3.5 points to 69.5 – recovering from a record low last week. (You may recall last week Government Confidence dropped 15 points to 66).

A large majority of Australians (58%) still say the country is heading in the wrong direction and only 27.5% say the country is heading in the right direction.

In terms of primary voting intention now 37.5% say they would vote for the Coalition, up 1% on a week ago and well ahead of the Labor Party on only 29.5%, down 0.5%.

A further 13.5% support the Greens, 6.5% support One Nation while 7% support Independents and 6% support Other Parties.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged this week at 74.7.

Inflation Expectations increased slightly this week, up 0.1% to 5.6%.

Australians are now expecting annual inflation to be 5.6% over the next two years – an increase over the monthly figure for the month of October of 5.3%.

The price of petrol is a very visible sign of inflation and a key reason for rising Inflation Expectations.

Australian petrol prices have now spent a record 15 straight weeks above $1.90 per litre and were at an average retail price of $2.02 per litre this week – although far higher in many parts of the country.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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