Roy Morgan Update January 23, 2024: Australia Day poll result, ALP Support up & Consumer Confidence

In this week's Update, we present the latest data on the Australia Day poll result, Primary Voting Intention & Consumer Confidence.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly Update and today we have the latest results from a special survey on views of Australia Day.

The third Roy Morgan survey of the year shows support for the Government increasing for a second straight week. Support for the Labor Government increased 1% to 52.5% and is now clearly ahead of the Coalition on 47.5% on a two-party preferred basis.

This is a marginally better result than the last election and would result in a slightly increased Labor majority.

Government Confidence has also increased 3.5 points to 85 – its highest since mid-September – but still well below 100, the neutral point where equal numbers of people think the country is going in the right direction and wrong direction.

Government Confidence is 85 because 50% of Australians say the country is heading in the wrong direction and only 35% say the country is heading in the right direction.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was unchanged this week at 84.4.

Inflation Expectations were up slightly this week by 0.2% points to 5.2% and have now been in a narrow band from 5.0-5.3% since mid-December.

Australians now expect annual Inflation to be 5.2% over the next two years. This is clearly above the official figure of 4.3% for the year to November 2023.

The rise in Inflation Expectations this week is unsurprising given the price of petrol. Average retail petrol prices in Australia have now spent a record 28 weeks (more than six months) above $1.80 per litre – although have trended down in recent weeks.

And now, turning to the most topical issue of the week – how Australians feel about our national holiday – Australia Day.

It’s a complicated and contentious issue.

For the last four years Roy Morgan has surveyed Australians on the issue by asking the following question: “On January 26, 1788, Captain Arthur Phillip landed at Sydney Cove. In your opinion should January 26 be known as Australia Day or Invasion Day?”

Following the defeat of ‘The Voice’ referendum late last the latest results show an increase in support for continuing to call January 26 ‘Australia Day’.

68.5% of Australians now say January 26 should be known as ‘Australia Day’ and only 31.5% say the day should be known as ‘Invasion Day’.

Australians are more evenly divided on whether the date of Australia Day should be moved. 58.5% say the date should remain the same while 41.5% say the date should be moved.

The real interest in the question comes from diving into the results by different demographics.

Men are far more likely to be in favour of calling January 26 Australia Day than women (men 76.5% women 61.5%) – a difference of 15% points.

Conversely, a slim majority of 50.5% of Women say the date of Australia Day should be moved compared to only 32.5% of men – a difference of 18% points.

Australians of all ages say the date should be known as Australia Day, but the result is far more conclusive for older Australians.

82.5% of people aged 65+ say the date should be known as ‘Australia Day’ compared to 56.5% of people aged 18-34

It is worth remembering when considering this issue that Australia Day has only been celebrated nation-wide on January 26 for less than 30 years.

As recently as 1994 the Australia Day public holiday was taken on Monday January 31 – the first Monday after January 26.