Roy Morgan Update March 5, 2024: ALP Support up to 53.5%, Consumer Confidence & Super Satisfaction

In this week's Update, we present the latest data on Primary Voting Intention, Consumer Confidence & Superannuation Satisfaction.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly Update.

The latest Roy Morgan survey on voting intention shows a significant swing to the Labor party, up 3.5% to 53.5% and well ahead of the Coalition on 46.5% on a two-party preferred basis.

If a Federal Election were held now the Albanese Government would be re-elected with an increased majority the latest Roy Morgan survey shows.

The swing to the Government came on the weekend the Labor Government easily retained the seat of Dunkley despite a swing of 3.6% to the Liberal Party. The 2pp vote in Dunkley currently stands at 52.6% Labor 47.4% Liberal.

The Labor primary vote increased by 0.9%, The Liberal primary vote increased 6.8% to 39.3%. However this result is still below the 40.4% received by the Liberal Party, United Australia Party and One Nation at the last election.

The seat of Dunkley is diverse and swings to the ALP in suburbs such as Seaford South and Frankston South were enough to counteract swings to the Liberal candidate, local Mayor Nathan Conroy, in places including Mt. Eliza and Langwarrin.

To win the seat the Coalition needed to secure swings across all the different areas, and it failed to do so.

There was also good news for the Labor Government on the inflation front last week- with the ABS reporting lower than expected inflation in January of 3.4% – all but removing the chance of an interest rate rise in mid-March and a definite positive for the Government.

Government Confidence was down slightly this week to 81 - well below the neutral level of 100 because only 33.5% of Australians say the country is heading in the right direction while 52% say the country is heading in the wrong direction.

There was also dour news with Consumer Confidence.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence fell 2.2 points to 81.0 this week – the lowest the index has been so far this year, although its 1.1 points higher than this time a year ago.

Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 57 weeks below the level of 85.

Although the Reserve Bank have not increased interest rates since November, the momentum in mortgage stress and cost of living pressures continues unabated – keeping a lid on Consumer Confidence.

Inflation Expectations were down 0.2% to 4.9%. Australians now expect annual Inflation to be 4.9% over the next two years.

This is the equal lowest level of Inflation Expectations for over two years since February 2022.

On three occasions previously Inflation Expectations have dipped to 4.9% - in September 2023 and a month ago in early February.

On each previous occasion, Inflation Expectations have soon bounced back higher to 5% and above.

Part of the reason Inflation Expectations keep bouncing back quickly is the continuing high price of petrol.

The average retail petrol price increased by 4 cents last week to $1.97 per litre.

Average retail petrol prices in Australia have now spent a record 34 weeks (more than seven months) above $1.80 per litre.

Petrol prices did dip early in January but have now been above $1.90 per litre since late January.

Now, to superannuation satisfaction.

Roy Morgan measures customer satisfaction with the financial performance of their superannuation monthly and the results show a turnaround in recent months as the ASX 200 has soared to record highs above 7,700.

In January 66.7% of Australians with superannuation said they were satisfied with the financial performance of their super.

This is up 1.7% points from a recent low in July 2023 – six months ago.

The result for January is also over 8% points higher than the long-term average of 58.3% over the last 17 years and higher than the level of satisfaction reached at any point prior to the pandemic.

In particular, it is satisfaction with Self-Managed Funds, up 2.4% to 76.8% and Industry Funds, up 1.8% to 68.6% that have driven the increase in satisfaction.

Satisfaction with Public Sector Funds and Retail Funds is up by less than 1% over the last six months.

For more details on what’s driving the increase in satisfaction with the financial performance of super visit the Roy Morgan website.