NZ: In April, for a third straight month, both the National-led Government and Parliamentary opposition were under 50% support
Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Poll for April 2025 shows the National-led Government (National, ACT & NZ First) on 49% (up 2% points) and the Labour-Greens-Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 47% (down 0.5% points) with both failing to muster a majority of support.
This is the fourth straight month the two main blocks representing both sides of politics have fallen short of a majority of support. This is also the seventh straight month no single party has managed to garner a third of the electorate’s support.
There were changes in the composition of support for the National-led Government with National down 1.5% points to 31%, however, support for both of their governing partners increased. Support for ACT increased 1.5% points to 9%, and support for NZ First increased 2% points to 9%, now at their highest level of support since the New Zealand Election held in October 2023.
For the Parliamentary Opposition, support for Labour increased 1% point to 28.5% while support for the Greens was virtually unchanged at 14%. Support for the Maori Party dropped 1% point to 4.5%.
A further 4% (down 1.5%) of electors supported a minor party outside Parliament. This includes 2.5% (down 1.5% points) who support The Opportunities Party (T.O.P.) and a further 1.5% (unchanged) who support other minor parties including the New Conservatives, NewZeal, NZ Outdoors, the Freedom Party and the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party.
National/ ACT/ NZ First would win a narrow majority of 61 seats in a 120 seat Parliament
The survey results for April would lead to 61 seats (down seven seats from the election) being won by the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition and just ahead of the current Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition with the 59 seats (up four seats).
For the governing coalition National’s support would win 39 seats (down ten seats), support for ACT would equal 11 seats (unchanged) and NZ First would win 11 seats (up three seats).
For the three Opposition parties Labour’s support would secure 36 seats (up two seats), Greens support would mean 17 seats (up two seats) and the Maori Party would win six seats (unchanged).
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 829 electors from March 24 – April 20, 2025. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 5% (up 1.5% points) did not name a party.
New Zealand Government Confidence Rating jumped 17.5pts to 97.5 in April
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating jumped 17.5pts to 97.5 in April. Now a plurality of 43% (down 9.5% points) of electors say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to 40.5% (up 8.5% points) who said New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was up 5.1pts to 98.3 in April and is about 15 points above the Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 83.4 on April 21 – 27, 2025.
Men favour National/ ACT/ NZ First by over 15%; women favour Labour/ Greens/ Maori by 10%+
The ‘gender split’ continues in April with a majority of 55.5% of men favouring the National/ ACT/ NZ First coalition government compared to 39% supporting the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party.
In contrast, on an overall basis women remain heavily behind the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 55% - well ahead of the governing National/ ACT/ NZ First on 42.5%.
Support for the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition is highest amongst older men aged 50+ at a massive 70.5% compared to only 29% for the opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party. Support for all three governing parties including National (41%), ACT (17.5%) and NZ First (12%) is higher amongst this demographic than any other age or gender group analysed.
Although men aged 50+ are strongly in support of the governing National-led coalition, younger men aged 18-49 are more evenly split and now favour the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party Parliamentary Opposition on 48.5% ahead of the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition on 41.5%.
Younger women aged 18-49 drive the support for the Opposition and heavily favour the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 66%, more than double the support of the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition on only 29%. Support for Labour (34.5%), the Greens (24%) and the Maori Party (7.5%) is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
In contrast, older women aged 50+ are in favour of the National/ ACT/ NZ First governing coalition on 53.5% ahead of the Opposition Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party on 45.5%. The combined support for the two major parties, National (34.5%) and Labour (30.5%) at a total of 64.5% is higher amongst this group than any other gender and age group analysed.
Party vote analysis by Gender & Age
| 2023 NZ Election | April 2025 | Women | Men | |||||
| All | 18-49 | 50+ | All | 18-49 | 50+ | |||
| % | % | % | % | % | % | % | % | |
| National | 38.1 | 31 | 28 | 19.5 | 34.5 | 34 | 27 | 41 |
| ACT | 8.6 | 9 | 4.5 | 1 | 8 | 13.5 | 10 | 17.5 |
| NZ First | 6.1 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 8 | 4.5 | 12 |
| National/ ACT/ NZ First | 52.8 | 49 | 42.5 | 29.5 | 53.5 | 55.5 | 41.5 | 70.5 |
| Labour | 26.9 | 28.5 | 32.5 | 34.5 | 30.5 | 24.5 | 29.5 | 19.5 |
| Greens | 11.6 | 14 | 17 | 24 | 11 | 11 | 14 | 8 |
| Maori Party | 3.1 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 4 | 3.5 | 5 | 2 |
| Labour/ Greens/ Maori Party | 41.6 | 47 | 55 | 66 | 45.5 | 39 | 48.5 | 29 |
| Others | 5.6 | 4 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 1 | 5.5 | 10 | 0.5 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating | ||||||||
| Right Direction | 31 | 40.5 | 36 | 27 | 44.5 | 45 | 41.5 | 49.5 |
| Wrong Direction | 57.5 | 43 | 45.5 | 50 | 42 | 40.5 | 43 | 37.5 |
| Government Confidence Rating | 73.5 | 97.5 | 90.5 | 77 | 102.5 | 104.5 | 98.5 | 112 |
| Can’t say | 11.5 | 16.5 | 18.5 | 23 | 13.5 | 14.5 | 15.5 | 13 |
| Total | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.
Government Confidence Rating is again highest for older men and lowest for younger women
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating increased significantly in April 2025, up 17.5pts to 97.5 and now at its highest so far this year.
An increasing plurality of men, 45% (up 9% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ while 40.5% (down 3.5% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating marginally in positive territory at 104.5 (up 12.5pts).
The increase in Government Confidence for men in April was driven by increases in Government Confidence for men of all ages including an increase of 12pts to 98.5 for younger men aged 18-49, and an increase of 12.5pts to 112 for older men aged 50+ - once again, clearly the highest of any gender and age group analysed.
Among women overall now a plurality of 45.5% (down 14.5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while just over a third, 36% (up 8% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 90.5 (up 22.5pts). The Government Confidence Rating for women aged 18-49 increased 15.5 points to 77 and again the lowest of any gender and age group analysed, while the Government Confidence Rating for women aged 50+ increased a large 27.5 points to 102.5 – easily the largest increase of any gender and age group analysed.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the National-led Government has gained a narrow edge on the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition in April after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates in early April 3.5% - the lowest rate since late 2022:
“Support for the National-led Government (National, ACT, NZ First) has increased marginally in April up 2% points to 49% and now just ahead of the Parliamentary Opposition (Labour Party, Greens, Maori Party) on 47% (down 0.5% points).
“The rise in support for the Government was due to increasing support for NZ First, up 2% points to 9% to their highest level of support since the last election, and an increase in support for ACT, up 1.5% points to 9%. However, support for National softened, down 1.5% points to 31%.
“Despite the improvement for the National-led Government, neither side has gained a majority of support in the electorate so far this year indicating just how tight the political contest in New Zealand is. The country faces a national election in around 18 months in late 2026.
“If a New Zealand Election were held now these support levels would result in 61 seats for the National-led Government and 59 seats for the Labour-led Parliamentary Opposition – a narrow majority of only two seats in the 120 seat Parliament – depending on any potential ‘overhang seats’ that may occur if a party won seats without gaining at least 5% support at the election.
“The edge in support for the National-led Government comes as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continues a series of interest rate cuts that began nearly a year ago in August 2024. Since then, the RBNZ has cut interest rates on five occasions by a total of 2% points from a high of 5.5% (May 2023 – August 2024) to 3.5% in mid-April.
“The interest rate cuts have clearly provided a boost to confidence. Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating for April is up 17.5pts to 97.5 and ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence increased 5.1pts to 98.3 – both at their highest so far this year.
“Government Confidence increased across all gender and age groups in April led by older women aged 50+ – up by a massive 27.5pts to 102.5. Older men aged 50+ again have clearly the highest Government Confidence at 112, up 12.5pts from a month ago. For both of these groups, more New Zealanders say the country is ‘going in the right direction’ than the ‘wrong direction’.
“However, although still below the neutral level of 100, there were significant increases in Government Confidence for both younger men aged 18-49, up 12pts to 98.5, and for their female counterparts, up 15.5pts to 77.”
For comments or more information about Roy Morgan’s New Zealand Voting Data and profiles of supporters of Labour, National and other parties, please contact:
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Office: +61 (3) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
