Roy Morgan Business Confidence down 9.3pts to 96.7 in April before weekend’s Federal Election
In April 2025, Roy Morgan Business Confidence dropped 9.3pts to 96.7 in the weeks leading up to last weekend’s Federal Election. There was a similar trend three years ago when Business Confidence plunged by 12.8pts in the month leading up to the last Federal Election.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese called the Federal Election at the end of March and the month of April was consumed by election campaigning, as well as school holidays and consecutive long weekends later in the month surrounding Easter and ANZAC Day.
In early April there was also US President Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs announcements which led to massive volatility, and falls, in share-markets worldwide and in currency markets. This volatility and uncertainty persisted for several weeks during April amidst the uncertainty of an election campaign.
The largest drop was for businesses assessing their prospects over the year ahead with only 36% (down 8.8% points) of businesses expecting to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year and only 24.3% (down 6.6% points) saying they are ‘better off’ financially compared to this time a year ago.
Looking forward, businesses are concerned about the long-term prospects for the Australian economy with a rising majority of 61% (up 5.1% points) expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the long-term compared to only 26.5% (down 3.6% points) expecting ‘good times’.
Business Confidence is now 13.5pts below the long-term average of 110.2, but 9.2pts higher than the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence of 87.5 for April 28 – May 4, 2025.
Roy Morgan Monthly Business Confidence - Australia
Source: Roy Morgan Business Single Source, Dec 2010-April 2025. Average monthly sample over the last 12 months = 1,534.
Business Confidence is down slightly from a year ago with the biggest falls in South Australia and Tasmania, and small declines in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland
Business Confidence for the month of April dropped by 9.3pts from a month ago but is down a more modest 2.6pts from April 2024. The decrease in Business Confidence has been driven by large drops in South Australia and Tasmania, and small declines in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland.
In contrast to all other States, Business Confidence in Western Australia, is now higher than a year ago at 109.8, up 1.3pts on a year ago and the highest Business Confidence of any State. West Australians voted in a State Election in March at which the ALP Government led by Premier Roger Cook was re-elected winning 46 seats out of 59 with a large two-party preferred lead of ALP 57.1% cf. L-NP 42.9%.
There were large declines in Tasmania, down 17.1pts to 86.4, and now clearly the lowest of any State, and a large decline in South Australia, down 10.2pts to 88.1.
There were small declines in line with the national result in Queensland, down 2.5pt to 102, in Victoria, down 2.2pts to 96.6, and in New South Wales, down 1.6pts to 91.7.
Business Confidence by State in April 2024 vs April 2025
Source: Roy Morgan Business Single Source, April 2024, n=1,986, April 2025, n=1,549. Base: Australian businesses. *Tasmanian Business Confidence is measured over two months: March & April 2024 cf. March & April 2025.
Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Services, Financial & Insurance Services and Accommodation & Food Services are the three most confident industries during March and April 2025
Over the last two months there were 12 industries with Business Confidence in positive territory above the neutral level of 100 led by Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Services, Financial & Insurance Services, Accommodation & Food Services, Education & Training, Administration & Support Services, Public Administration & Safety and Professional, Scientific & Technical Services filling out the top seven industries.
There were two industries with confidence over 20pts above the average in March and April 2025 led by Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Services on 126.9, up a large 44.9pts on a year ago, and Financial & Insurance Services on 124.0, and up a marginal 2.2pts on a year ago.
Filling out the top four are Accommodation & Food Services on 118.4, but down 12pts on a year ago – the biggest drop of any industry over the last year, just ahead of Education & Training on 117.7, and virtually unchanged on a year ago, down by only 1.4pts. Education & Training has now been amongst the top five most confident industries for nearly three years since June 2022.
There were only two industries with Business Confidence deep in negative territory below 90 during the last two months and the least confident industry is Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing on 78.3, and an average Business Confidence over the last two years of only 82.1. Only slightly higher is Transport, Postal & Warehousing on 79.3, and also the industry with the lowest average Business Confidence over the last two years of only 81.4.
Business Confidence for Top 5 and Bottom 5 Industries in March & April 2025
Source: Roy Morgan Business Single Source, March & April 2025, n=3,033. Base: Australian businesses.
Note: In the chart above, green bars represent Business Confidence in positive territory above the national average, red bars represent Business Confidence well below the national average and below the neutral level of 100 while the dark blue bar represents Business Confidence above the neutral level of 100 but still below the national average.
Business Confidence dropped to 96.7 in April driven by falls in confidence about the next 12 months for both the business’ own prospects and the performance of the Australian economy:
- In April, under a quarter of businesses, 24.3% (down 6.6ppts), said their business is ‘better off’ financially than this time a year ago – the lowest figure for this indicator for over four years since September 2020 during the pandemic,while 36.7% (down 1.2ppts), said the business is ‘worse off’;
- Businesses’ views on their prospects for the next year dropped significantly in April with 36% (down 8.8ppts) expecting the business will be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the lowest figure for this indicator for six years since April 2019), while over a quarter, 25.6% (up 8.3ppts), expect the business will be ‘worse off’ (the highest figure for this indicator for over a year since February 2024);
- Confidence regarding the performance of the Australian economy over the next year dropped, with a falling majority of 58.1% (down 2.6ppts), expecting ‘good times’ while 37.2% (up 2.9ppts) expect ‘bad times’;
- Businesses’ views on the long-term future of the Australian economy over the next five years dropped in April with 26.5% (down 3.6ppts) expecting ‘good times’ over the next five years compared to an increasing majority of 61% (up 5.1ppts) expecting ‘bad times’;
- Net sentiment on whether now is a ‘good or bad time to invest in growing the business’was down in April with 38.2% (down 5.2ppts) saying the next 12 months will be a ‘good time to invest’ in growing the business and slightly more, 38.9% (up 4.5ppts) who say the next 12 months will be a ‘bad time to invest’.
Michele Levine, CEO of Roy Morgan, says Business Confidence dropped 9.3pts to 96.7 in April after a month of upheaval and uncertainty with President Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement in early April and a Federal Election campaign throughout the rest of the month:
“Roy Morgan Business Confidence dropped 9.3pts to 96.7 in April, its largest drop for over two years since February 2023. Business Confidence is now in negative territory below the neutral level of 100 for the first time so far this year.
“All five Business Confidence indicators fell during April as global uncertainty sparked by President Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, as well as the political uncertainty of an election campaign, caused a sharp fall in confidence about business prospects and the state of the Australian economy.
“Although President Trump’s tariffs on Australian exports were at the base rate of 10%, there were significantly higher tariffs on Australia’s main trading partner – China. The uncertainty caused by a potential trade war between the world’s two largest economies led to significant share-market falls worldwide – including in Australia.
“There was also a hit to the value of the Australian Dollar as uncertainty gripped the markets and many decision makers. Despite the initial shock, the uncertainty in markets began to subside after Trump suspended many of the threatened tariffs for 90 days and set about inking new trade deals.
“There was also a hotly contested Federal Election campaign, called in late March by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, that played out throughout April and led to the thumping election win for the incumbent Labor Government over the weekend.
“The uncertainty about policy settings both locally and globally during April hit businesses’ confidence about their own prospects with only 36% (down 8.8% points from a month ago) expecting to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year – the lowest figure for this indicator for six years since April 2019.
“On a State-by-State basis Business Confidence was in positive territory in only two States in April led by Western Australia at 109.8 following the re-election of the WA Premier Roger Cook’s ALP Government for a third term in a landslide winning 46 out of 59 seats in the WA Legislative Assembly.
“There was also positive Business Confidence in Queensland at 102. However, Business Confidence is below the neutral level of 100 in the two largest States of Victoria (96.6) and New South Wales (91.7), and also in the two smallest States of South Australia (88.1) and Tasmania (86.4).
“At an industry level, it is Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Services on 126.9 and Financial & Insurance Services on 124 which are once again clearly the two most confident industries well over 20 points higher than the national average. Other confident industries include Accommodation & Food Services on 118.4 and Education & Training on 117.7. Education & Training has now been amongst the top five most confident industries for nearly three years since June 2022.
“At the other end of the scale is Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing on only 78.3 just below Transport, Postal & Warehousing on 79.3 and the lowest average Business Confidence over the last two years of only 81.4. These are the only two industries with Business Confidence in negative territory well below the neutral level of 100.”
The latest Roy Morgan Business Confidence results for April are based on 1,549 detailed interviews with a cross-section of Australian businesses from each State and Territory. Detailed findings are available to purchase on a monthly or annual subscription as part of the Roy Morgan Business Confidence Report.
For comments or more information please contact:
Michele Levine
CEO, Roy Morgan
Office: +61 (3) 9224 5215
Mobile: 0411 129 093
To learn more about Roy Morgan’s Business Confidence, Consumer Confidence and Inflation Expectations data call (+61) (3) 9224 5309 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.
About Roy Morgan
Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
| Sample Size | Percentage Estimate |
| 40% – 60% | 25% or 75% | 10% or 90% | 5% or 95% | |
| 1,000 | ±3.0 | ±2.7 | ±1.9 | ±1.3 |
| 5,000 | ±1.4 | ±1.2 | ±0.8 | ±0.6 |
| 7,500 | ±1.1 | ±1.0 | ±0.7 | ±0.5 |
| 10,000 | ±1.0 | ±0.9 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 |
| 20,000 | ±0.7 | ±0.6 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 |
| 50,000 | ±0.4 | ±0.4 | ±0.3 | ±0.2 |
