June 09, 2021

ALP (51%) leads L-NP (49%) on a two-party preferred basis the back of big lead in Victoria

Topic: Federal Poll, Press Release
Finding No: 8726
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During the Victorian lockdown in early June, support for the ALP is 51% on a two-party preferred basis, up 0.5% points since March 2021 and increasing their lead over the L-NP on 49% (down 0.5% points) despite a relatively well received Federal Budget delivered in May according to the latest Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention.

If a Federal Election were held now it would be too close to call with a higher than usual 5.5% of electors undecided about who they would vote for and with the real possibility Australia would have a hung Parliament for the first time in nearly a decade. Normally around 3-4% of electors can’t say who they would vote for.

Interviewing for the latest Morgan Poll was conducted over the weekends of May 29/30 & June 5/6, 2021 with a nationally representative cross-section of 2,817 Australian electors using  a combination of telephone and online interviews (multi-mode).

Primary Voting Intention for the L-NP drops to 40% while ALP support increases to 35.5%

Primary support for the L-NP is now at 40% (down 1% point since March) compared to the ALP on 35.5% (up 1% point). Greens support has dropped by 1% point to 11.5%.

Support for the minor parties and independents has increased with support for One Nation up 0.5% points to 3% while support for Independents/Others has increased 0.5% points to 10%.

Federal Voting Intention by State shows ALP lead built on strength in Victoria

Voting analysis by State shows the ALP’s national two-party preferred lead is built upon a strong two-party preferred result in Victoria with the ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5% in the State enduring its fourth lockdown – although set to end this Friday after two weeks.

This result represents a swing of 0.4% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.

In New South Wales the ALP also holds a narrow two-party preferred lead of ALP 50.5% cf. L-NP 49.5% representing a swing of 2.3% points to the ALP in NSW since the 2019 Federal Election.

The L-NP holds two-party preferred leads in the other mainland States and holds its biggest lead in Queensland with the LNP 53% cf. ALP 47% on a two-party preferred basis. However, despite this comfortable lead this represents a swing of 5.4% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

In Western Australia the L-NP holds a narrow two-party preferred lead in WA of L-NP 51% cf. ALP 49% which represents a swing to ALP of 4.6% points since the 2019 Federal Election.

The two major parties are almost even in South Australia with the L-NP 50.5% just ahead of the ALP 49.5% on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a swing of 1.2% to the L-NP since the 2019 Federal Election, the only State in which L-NP support has increased over the last two years.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence is down to 113 in June – lowest since February 2020

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 5pts from March 2021 to 113 and now at its lowest since the COVID-19 pandemic began just over a year ago. Now 48.5% (down 3% points since March) of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while more than a third, 35.5% (up 2% points) say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The latest Government Confidence Ratings by State paint a contrasting picture. Government Confidence in Western Australia is at a very high 133 in early June – 20pts above the national figure.

Government Confidence is also high in South Australia at 120 and above average in Queensland at 116. All three States have the L-NP in front on a two-party preferred basis.

However, in NSW the Government Confidence Rating is in line with the national figure at 113 while in Victoria it is only 102.5 – over 10pts lower than the national figure. Government Confidence in Tasmania is lower still at only 92, below the neutral level of 100.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan says if a Federal Election were held now the ALP has a narrow advantage and would be likely to enter government with the support of the Greens and left-leaning independents:

“Today’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP on 51% marginally in front of the L-NP on 49% on a two-party preferred basis in early June. The ALP’s support has increased 0.5% points since mid-March on the back of strong support in Victoria – which is now enduring its fourth lockdown since the COVID-19 pandemic began.

“A worrying sign for the Government is that Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s high-spending Federal Budget in mid-May hasn’t provided a boost in support and the latest lockdown in Victoria is causing political problems for both the Victorian State Government as well as the Federal Government – which must go to an election before its counterparts in Victoria.

“Federal voting intention in Victoria shows the ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5% on a two-party preferred basis – a swing to the ALP of 0.4% points since the 2019 Federal Election. There have also been swings to the ALP in NSW (+2.3% points), Queensland (+5.4% points) and WA (+4.6% points).

“The Federal Government holds 70 seats in the four biggest States of NSW, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia compared to 56 for the ALP. Any swing against the L-NP Government in these four States is likely to cost the Government its majority in the House of Representatives.

“Although the latest ABS GDP figures for the year to March 2021 released last week showed the Australian economy grew 1.1% over the year since the COVID-19 pandemic began, the economic momentum may have stalled as Government subsidies were reduced at the end of March.

“The latest Roy Morgan unemployment estimates shows 1.49 million Australians (10.3% of the workforce) were unemployed in May 2021 – an increase of 186,000 on April 2021. The increase in unemployment came a month after the end of the $89 billion JobKeeper wage subsidy and until a much higher proportion of Australians are vaccinated the economy will remain vulnerable to COVID-19 outbreaks that cause large-scale lockdowns – as we are seeing now in Melbourne.

“There is plenty of blame to go around for the latest outbreak and lockdown in Melbourne with the hotel quarantine outbreak originating in South Australia. However, most scrutiny has rested with the Victorian Government’s handling of the outbreak and decision to lockdown the State and the Federal Government’s role in providing quarantine facilities and also delivering vaccination doses around the country.

“All three Governments face elections next year in 2022 but it is the Federal Government who will be the first to face the judgment of voters with the Federal Election due by May 2022.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing last weekend. Roy Morgan interviewed 2,817 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of May 29/30 & June 5/6, 2021. A higher than usual 5.5% of electors (down 1% point from March) can’t say who they support.

Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2021)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–Jun 2021. Base: Australian electors 18+.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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