November 11, 2021

ALP (53.5%) lead over the L-NP (46.5%) cut slightly as PM Scott Morrison attends G20 & COP26 meetings

Topic: Federal Poll, Morgan Poll Review, Press Release, Public Opinion
Finding No: 8852
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ALP support is now at 53.5% (down 0.5% points since late October) cf. L-NP on 46.5% (up 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted over the last two weekends.

ALP support is now at 53.5% (down 0.5% points since late October) cf. L-NP on 46.5% (up 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted over the last two weekends.

The small swing to the L-NP came while Prime Minister Scott Morrison attended the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Rome on October 30/31 and then the United Nations Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) the following week in Glasgow, Scotland.

Prime Minister Morrison announced at the COP26 Summit that Australia was committed to a target of “Net Zero” carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. However, the Government resisted calls to make further commitments on methane gas reductions and closing coal-fired power stations early.

If a Federal Election were held now the ALP would be elected with a similar margin to that won by John Howard at the 1996 Federal Election (ALP 53.6% cf. L-NP 46.4%).

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing over the last two weekends. Roy Morgan interviewed 2,723 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of October 30/31 & November 6/7, 2021. A higher than usual 7% of electors (down 1% point from late October) can’t say who they support.


Primary Voting Intention unchanged for the major parties in early November

Primary support for the L-NP was unchanged at 36.5% in early November and is still ahead of the ALP which was also unchanged at 35%.

Despite the UN Climate Change Conference being prominent in the news over the last few weeks support for the Greens dropped by 2% points to 11.5%. Support for One Nation was also down, by 0.5% points to 3% while support for Independents/Others was the big winner, up 2.5% points to 14%.


Voting Intention by State shows the ALP leading in NSW & Victoria, LNP leads in Queensland

Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in five States including Victoria, NSW, WA, SA and Tasmania. In contrast, the LNP leads only in Queensland. However, the L-NP picked up ground over the last two weeks in the key States of Victoria, NSW, Queensland and WA, but is well behind in SA and Tasmania.

The ALP leads in Victoria on 55% (down 1.5% points since late October) compared to the L-NP on 45% (up 1.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a swing of 1.9% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.

The L-NP’s improvement in Victoria comes after large protests against the Andrews Government on a range of issues including new legislation on ‘extraordinary’ powers for the Premier to declare a pandemic, the Andrews’ Government enforcement of vaccine mandates and tough restrictions on Victorians who are choosing to remain unvaccinated against COVID-19.

Despite continuing to trail, the Government has made up ground in NSW over the last two weeks. The ALP is now on 53.5% (down 1.5% points since late October) compared to the L-NP on 46.5% (up 1.5% points). This result represents a swing of 5.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The continued success of the NSW Liberal Government’s re-opening plans is demonstrated by the continued easing of restrictions in the state which is not leading to a spike in cases of COVID-19 as feared.

In Queensland the LNP has increased its lead over the last two weeks and is now on 53% (up 1.5% points since late October) cf. ALP 47% (down 1.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. Despite the LNP’s lead this represents a swing of 5.4% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s trip to the UN Climate Change COP 26 Summit in the last fortnight did include a commitment to reduce Australia’s carbon dioxide emissions to “Net Zero” by 2050, but importantly for Queensland’s significant coal-mining and agricultural industries there was no commitment made to reducing Australia’s methane gas emissions or pledging to close coal-mines by 2030.

The situation in Western Australia has also moved slightly in the L-NP’s favour, although the ALP still holds a clear lead. The ALP on 53.5% (down 1.5% points since late October) ahead of the L-NP on 46.5% (up 1.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a massive swing of 9.1% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP leads strongly in both of the smaller States. In South Australia the ALP is on 57.5% (up 9% points since late October) well ahead of the L-NP on 42.5% (down 9% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This represents a swing of 6.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The ALP continues to enjoy a strong lead in Tasmania with the ALP 57.5% cf. L-NP 42.5% - a swing of 1.5% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence down by 2.5pts to 95.5 following international trip

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has dropped by 2.5ps to 95.5 in early November. Now 40% (down 1% point) of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while 44.5%, up 1.5% points, say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

However, there remains a wide divergence of almost 20pts between different States with Government Confidence above 100 in two States (Western Australia and Queensland) and below the neutral level of 100 in the four other States (NSW, Victoria, Tasmania and South Australia).

Government Confidence is highest in Queensland at 103.5 in early November while the measure is also in positive territory in Western Australia at 103. Both States have now announced re-opening plans although those dates remain some way off.

Despite the easing of restrictions in NSW the Government Confidence is just below the neutral level of 100 at 96 in early November, slightly higher than in South Australia at 93.

In contrast, Government Confidence is well below the neutral level of 100 in Victoria at 88 in early November and is at only 85.5 in the tourism-dependent Tasmania. Tasmanian borders are set to remain closed for at least another month until mid-December.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan says the ALP’s lead over the L-NP has narrowed slightly over the last fortnight as Prime Minister Scott Morrison attended international gatherings in Rome and Glasgow and made new pledges on Australia’s Climate Change targets:

Block Quote

“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP 53.5% (down 0.5% points since late October) continuing to hold a clear election-winning lead over the L-NP 46.5% (up 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis.

“The ALP leads on a two-party preferred basis in the key States of NSW, Victoria and WA although the L-NP has made small gains in all three States over the last fortnight. The L-NP’s best performance is again in Queensland – the only State in which the Morrison Government holds a two-party preferred advantage: LNP 53% cf. ALP 47%.

“The LNP’s performance in Queensland is key to the Morrison Government’s prospects of re-election next year with the Coalition holding 23/30 seats in Queensland (77%) compared to only 6/30 seats for the ALP (20%).

“The improvement for the L-NP over the last two weeks comes despite a significant diplomatic ‘spat’ between Prime Minister Scott Morrison and French President Emmanuel Macron at the G20 meeting in Rome regarding Australia’s decision to ‘dump’ the submarines contract with the French.

“Although many in the Australian media were quick to point the finger at Prime Minister Morrison for alleged ‘duplicity’ in relation to the French, the impact of President Macron’s assertion that he was lied to by Morrison has had negligible impact on the voting intentions of Australians.

“On more substantive issues, Prime Minister Morrison pledged at the UN COP26 Climate Summit in Glasgow for Australia to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to “Net Zero’ by 2050 for the first time. However, at the same time, Morrison rejected committing Australia to reducing its methane gas emissions or closing down coal-mines.

“This balanced approach to the issue of Climate Change is credited by many with being the key to the Coalition’s unexpected victory at the 2019 Federal Election. By focusing on protecting jobs and livelihoods as well as making measured commitments on Climate Change the Coalition was able to paint Labor’s more far-reaching and substantive commitments on reducing carbon dioxide emissions as more costly and economically ‘reckless’.

“It appears that balancing these the competing priorities of adhering to global Climate Change commitments as well as protecting the jobs and livelihoods of the average Australian will again form a key part of the Morrison Government’s arguments for re-election to a fourth term in 2022.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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