May 10, 2022

ALP 54.5% leads the L-NP 45.5% on a two-party preferred basis as early voting begins this week

Topic: Federal Poll, Press Release
Finding No: 8967
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The ALP has a large lead of 9% points over the L-NP on a two-party preferred basis when the preferences of minor party voters are allocated based on preference flows at the 2019 Federal Election according to the latest Roy Morgan Poll conducted from May 2-8, 2022.

When looking at primary support, and including those who can’t say who they support, the ALP was at 33%, support for the L-NP was at 31.5% and there were 35.5% of people who either supported a minor party, independent or who couldn’t (or wouldn’t) say who they supported – a higher proportion of electors than supported either of the major parties.

Allocating preferences based on how people voted at the 2019 Federal Election shows the ALP on 54.5% (up 0.5% points from a week ago) compared to the L-NP on 45.5% (down 0.5% points).

Roy Morgan has previously published preference flows based on how people say they will direct their preferences. Under this method the ALP leads the L-NP by a larger margin of 12% points: ALP 56% (up 0.5% points in a week) compared to the L-NP on 44% (down 0.5% points).

We believe that as the election draws closer and early voting has now begun – starting yesterday – it is more accurate to estimate a two-party preferred result based on the voting pattern of the most recent Federal Election in 2019.

To see how the two methods produce slightly different two-party preferred results visit the Roy Morgan two-party preferred voting intention trends page here: https://www.roymorgan.com/morganpoll/federal-voting/2pp-voting-intention-recent-2016-2022.

The weekly Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating fell a further 3pts to 81 this week after the RBA raised interest rates by 0.25% points to 0.35% - the first increase in official interest rates for over a decade since November 2010.

There are now far more Australians, 51% (up 1% point), who say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to just under a third of Australians, 32% (down 2% points), who say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’.

If a Federal Election had been held last weekend the ALP would have won a clear majority.

Analysis by State shows the ALP leads in four States including NSW, Victoria, Western Australia and South Australia while the L-NP leads in Queensland and Tasmania.

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing of 1,401 Australian electors aged 18+ from Monday May 2 – Sunday May 8, 2022. There were an unchanged 7% of electors who wouldn’t say who they support.

The ALP has the edge on primary support at 35.5% cf. L-NP 34%

Primary support for the ALP was up slightly by 0.5% points to 35.5% this week and is now ahead of the L-NP on 34% (down 1% point). Support for the Greens was unchanged at 13%.

Support for One Nation increased by 1% point to 4% while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party was unchanged at 1%. Support for Other Parties was up 0.5% points to 4% while support for Independents was down 1% point to 8.5%.

Voting Intention by State shows the ALP leading in four of six States – including NSW & Victoria

Voting analysis by State has all been calculated based on how preferences flowed at the 2019 Federal Election and therefore can’t be directly compared to the results published a week ago which used respondent-allocated preferences. The results this week show the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in four States with the L-NP leading in Queensland and Tasmania.

The ALP leads in NSW on 51.5% compared to the L-NP on 48.5%.This result represents a swing of 3.3% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP leads strongly in Victoria with the ALP on 61% well ahead of the L-NP on 39%. This result represents a large swing of 7.9% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.

The LNP leads in Queensland on 53.5% ahead of the ALP on 46.5%. This result still represents a swing of 4.9% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

Although from a small sample, the ALP now leads in Western Australia on 57.5% compared to the L-NP on 42.5% after the ALP launched their campaign in Perth for the first time just over a week ago. This result represents a swing of 13% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

In South Australia, the ALP on 62.5% is well ahead of the L-NP on 37.5%. This result represents a large swing of 11.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election and would reproduce the results of the recent South Australian Election which was a clear victory for the ALP.

The L-NP leads in Tasmania on 60% ahead of the ALP 40% which represents a swing of 16% points to the L-NP since the 2019 Federal Election although these results are based on a very small sample size.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence drops 3pts to 81 after the RBA increases interest rates for the first time in over a decade to 0.35% (up 0.25% points)

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped 3pts to 81 after the RBA increased interest rates for the first time since November 2010 last week – up 0.25% points to 0.35%. Interest rates are still below their level of just over two years ago at the beginning of the pandemic (0.75% in February 2020).

There are now far more Australians, 51% (up 1% point), who say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to just under a third of Australians, 32% (down 2% points), who say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’.

Government Confidence is now below the neutral level of 100 in all six States but is clearly highest in South Australia at 95.5 and Western Australia at 92.5.

In New South Wales Government Confidence is at 81.5, just above the national average of 81, while it is well below the national average in Victoria (77), Tasmania (75.5) and Queensland (75).

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says there are an unprecedented proportion of Australians – over a third of electors (35.5%) – who say they will vote for either one of the minor parties, an independent, or can’t say who they would support only two weeks before the election:

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“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP holds an election winning lead with 54.5% support ahead of the L-NP on 45.5% on a two-party preferred basis when preferences are allocated based on preference flows at the 2019 Federal Election.

“However the two-party preferred result doesn’t tell the full story. When electors are asked who they support, over a third, 35.5%, say they support either other parties, independents or can’t say who they would support – a higher level of support than for either the ALP (33%) or L-NP (31.5%).

“This large cohort of voters not voting for their major parties makes predicting the final two-party preferred result particularly difficult and increases the chances of a large number of cross-benchers being elected at next week’s Federal Election.

“On current trends, the ALP will win a majority of seats at the Federal Election and any cross-benchers elected will not hold the balance of power. However, a late swing to L-NP over the last two weeks of the election campaign could still produce a hung Parliament with the ALP favoured to be able to form Government with cross-bench support.

“Although many pundits refer to the ‘unexpected’ victory of the Scott Morrison-led L-NP at the 2019 Federal Election, in reality, the polls – including the Roy Morgan Poll – were a lot closer three years ago. In early May 2019 the Roy Morgan Poll consistently showed the ALP had a narrow two-party preferred lead of ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49% – within the margin of error.

“The L-NP made a late surge three years ago and increased their two-party preferred vote by 2.5% points over the last two weeks of the campaign. A similar swing for the L-NP now would not be enough for the L-NP to retain Government at next week’s Federal Election.

“One of the most significant differences between now and three years ago is that Prime Minister Scott Morrison is now well-known around Australia – which was not the case in 2019 – and the news is not good for Morrison.

A special Roy Morgan Poll into ‘trust’ and ‘distrust’ of Australia’s politicians showed that Prime Minister Scott Morrison has the highest ‘Net Distrust’ score of any current Australian politician – just ahead of Defence Minister Peter Dutton and Nationals Leader Barnaby Joyce.

“The lack of trust in Morrison relates to many issues including the government’s failure to legislate for a Federal corruption commission during this term of Parliament, issues surrounding the acquisition and roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines during 2021, and questions about Morrison’s trustworthiness raised by former colleagues such as former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.

“Early voting has now commenced across Australia and with just over a week to go until next week’s Federal Election the ALP is firmly favoured to win Government at next week’s election – and likely with a majority of seats.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–May 2022. Base: Australian electors 18+. Preferences allocated by how people stated their preference until May 1, 2022. Preferences have been allocated by voting patterns at the 2019 Federal Election for results after May 1, 2022.

Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022) – Female Electors

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–May 2022. Base: Australian electors 18+. Preferences allocated by how people stated their preference until May 1, 2022. Preferences have been allocated by voting patterns at the 2019 Federal Election for results after May 1, 2022.

Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022) – Male Electors

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–May 2022. Base: Australian electors 18+. Preferences allocated by how people stated their preference until May 1, 2022. Preferences have been allocated by voting patterns at the 2019 Federal Election for results after May 1, 2022.

For comments or more information please contact:
Roy Morgan - Enquiries
Office: +61 (03) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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