A Roy Morgan Poll conducted over the last week shows the ALP extending its large lead over the L-NP after NSW Liberal Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells criticised Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s credentials to be Prime Minister on the night of the Federal Budget.
The ALP is now on 57% (up 1.5% points from a week ago) compared to the L-NP 43% (down 1.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held today the ALP would win a clear majority.
Analysis by State shows the ALP now leads in all six States on a two-party preferred basis and gained support in New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania while L-NP support increased only in South Australia.
The latest Roy Morgan Poll was conducted in the week of the Federal Budget but any ‘bounce’ the Government may have expected didn’t happen after Senator Fierravanti-Wells attacked Prime Minister Morrison’s character in a blistering speech to the Senate later that same night.
This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing of 1,367 Australian electors aged 18+ from Monday March 28 - Sunday April 3, 2022. There were a higher than usual 7% of electors (up 2% points) who wouldn’t say who they support.
ALP leads L-NP by 6.5% points on primary vote as bullying allegations surround PM Morrison
Primary support for the ALP increased 4% points to 39.5% (all from minor parties and independents) in the first week of April as bullying allegations swirled around Prime Minister Scott Morrison following last week’s Federal Budget. The ALP now leads the L-NP by 6.5% points on primary support as L-NP support was unchanged at 33%.
As ALP support increased Greens support dropped 1.5% points to 11%. Support for One Nation was unchanged at 3.5%, while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party was unchanged at 1%. Support for Other Parties decreased by 1.5% points to 3% while support for Independents was down 1% point to 9%.
Voting Intention by State shows the ALP leading in all six States – including Queensland
Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in all six States during the past week after regaining a narrow two-party preferred lead in Queensland.
The ALP’s lead in NSW has increased from a week ago with the ALP now on 55% (up 2% points from a week ago) compared to the L-NP on 45% (down 2% points). This result represents a large swing of 7.3% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
The ALP’s lead in Victoria is virtually unchanged from a week ago with the ALP now on 60.5% (up 0.5% points from a week ago) compared to the L-NP on 39.5% (down 0.5% points). This result represents a large swing of 7.4% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.
The ALP has regained a narrow advantage in Queensland with the ALP on 50.5% (up 1.5% points from a week ago) now just ahead of the L-NP on 49.5% (down 1.5% points). This result represents a large swing of 8.9% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
The ALP has increased its lead in Western Australia with the ALP on 59% (up 2% points from a week ago) cf. L-NP 41% (down 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis. This result represents a large swing of 14.6% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
In South Australia, there has been a swing back to the L-NP following two consecutive swings to the ALP surrounding the recent ALP State Election victory. Support for the ALP is now on 56% (down 7.5% points from a week ago) cf. L-NP on 44% (up 7.5% points).
Despite this week’s strong swing to the L-NP in South Australia the result is still more favourable to the ALP than it was three weeks ago. This represents a swing of 5.3% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The ALP has a large lead in Tasmania with the ALP 74% cf. L-NP 26%, a swing of 15% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence up 1pt to 81 after last week’s Federal Budget and following a plunge in the petrol price over the last week
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 1pt to 81 in early April. Although a rise in Government Confidence usually goes hand-in-hand with a rise in support for the Government, the large drop in the average petrol price, down by around 30 cents per litre over the last two weeks, explains the small gain in Government Confidence despite primary support for the L-NP remaining unchanged.
Now a third of Australians, 33% (up 0.5% points), of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while a majority of 52% (down 0.5% points) say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Government Confidence remains below 100 in all six States however, there remains a wide divergence of nearly 30pts between different States. Government Confidence is above average and highest in Western Australia on 94.5, Queensland on 88, South Australia on 85.5 and Victoria on 82.5.
In the other two States Government Confidence is below average at 77 in New South Wales and well below average at only 65.5 in Tasmania. Only 25% of Tasmanians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 59.5% that say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says NSW Liberal Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells’ blistering attack on Prime Minister Scott Morrison as well as allegations of ‘skullduggery’ by Morrison to win pre-selection in the seat of Cook in 2007 have blunted any ‘Budget bounce’ for the L-NP:
“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP 57% (up 1.5% points from a week ago) increasing its lead over the L-NP 43% (down 1.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis after NSW Liberal Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells’ attacked several members of her own party – including Prime Minister Scott Morrison – in a blistering speech following the Federal Budget last Tuesday night.
“There is an old political axiom that ‘Disunity is Death’ – and the factional rivalries on display currently in the NSW Liberal Party, and highlighted by the fiery speech by Senator Fierravanti-Wells, are still yet to fully play out. The Liberal infighting is set to go to the NSW State Court of Appeals for a ruling on whether this week’s ‘Captain’s Pick’s by PM Morrison for the upcoming Federal Election in several key seats can stand.
“Senator Fierravanti-Wells attacked the character of the Prime Minister describing Mr. Morrison as ‘unfit for office’, an ‘autocrat’, with ‘no moral compass’ and a ‘bully’. Senator Fierravanti-Wells claimed Morrison is ‘not fit to be Prime Minister’ and that he and fellow NSW Liberal MP Alex Hawke had ‘destroyed the Liberal Party in NSW’.
“The attack on her fellow Liberal Party colleagues came barely an hour after Treasurer Josh Frydenberg handed down the 2022 Federal Budget – clearly aimed at winning back support for the Government in the run-up to this year’s Federal Election due to be called any day now.
“One of the big ticket headlines in the Federal Budget was a slashing of the fuel excise by 22c per litre (+2.2c GST) – a cut of around 25c per litre to the petrol price. This cut to the fuel excise has been positively received but, at least for now, has been overshadowed by the continuing infighting within the Liberal Party.”
Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022)
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–April 2022. Base: Australian electors 18+.
Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022) – Female Electors
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=1,000. May 2019–April 2022. Base: Female electors 18+.
Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022) – Male Electors
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=1,000. May 2019–April 2022. Base: Male electors 18+.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|Sample Size||Percentage Estimate|
|40% – 60%||25% or 75%||10% or 90%||5% or 95%|