October 18, 2022

ALP increases its large election-winning lead over the Liberal-National Coalition in Victoria in September: ALP 60% cf. L-NP 40%

Topic: State Poll
Finding No: 9088
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The ALP has increased its large election winning lead over the Liberal-National Coalition in Victoria with the ALP now on 60% (up 2% points since August) and well ahead of the L-NP on 40% (down 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis less than two months before the State Election.

The latest result on the multi-mode Roy Morgan survey in September is in line with a Roy Morgan Snap SMS Poll taken in mid-August showing a strong lead for the ALP: 60.5% cf. L-NP 39.5%.

If a Victorian State Election were held today the ALP would win the election easily according to the Roy Morgan Poll on State voting intention conducted during the month of September with a representative cross-section of 1,379 Victorian electors aged 18+ of whom 8% couldn’t say who they support.

Primary vote for the ALP up in September, but L-NP virtually unchanged

The ALP primary vote is 42% (up 5.5% points since August 2022) and has now moved even further ahead of the L-NP on 28% (down 1% point).

Despite the increase in support for the ALP in September, support for both major parties has dropped since the 2018 Victorian Election, down by 0.9% points for the ALP (42.9% in the 2018 Victorian Election) and down by 7.2% points for the L-NP (35.2% in the 2018 Victorian Election).

Support for the minor parties is up significantly since the 2018 Victorian Election – mirroring the trend seen at the recent Federal Election when 34.1% of Victorians voted for a minor party.

Overall, nearly a third of Victorians (30%) say they will vote for a minor party or independent in the State Election in November. The Greens attract the most support from these voters at 14.5% (up 0.5% points since August 2022) and a further 15.5% is spread between an array of minor parties and independents:

One Nation: 2%; Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party (UAP): 1%; Liberal Democrats: 1%; Animal Justice Party: 1%; Shooters, Fishers & Farmer’s Party: 0.5%; Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party: 0.5%; Legalise Cannabis Party: 0.5%; ‘Teal Independents’: 1%; Other Independents: 7%; and Other parties: 1%.

At the last Victorian State Election in 2018 a total of 11 parties were elected to the Victorian Parliament and three independents. Transport Matters secured a seat in the Victorian Legislative Council with only 0.6% of the State-wide vote.

Question 1:

“If a State Election for Victoria were being held today, which party would receive your first preference?"

Victorian Primary Voting Intention – Trends.

  Victorian Electors 18+  
PRIMARY 2018 Vic
Election
Oct
2020
Nov
2020
Nov 11,
2021
Nov 24,
2021
Jun 30 – Jul 2, 2022 Aug 11-13, 2022 Aug. 2022 Sept.
2022*
VOTE % % % % % % % % %
ALP 42.9 40 45 43 45 43.5 40.5 36.5 42
Liberal 30.4 36 30.5 28 27 27 24.5 27 26
National 4.8 4 4 3 2 2.5 3 2 2
L-NP 35.2 40 34.5 31 29 29.5 27.5 29 28
Greens 10.7 9 11 11 10.5 12 14 14 14.5
Total Others 11.2 11 9.5 15 15.5 15 18 20.5 15.5
One Nation n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 2 2
UAP: United Australia Party n/a n/a n/a 3 4 2 2 0.5 1
Liberal Democrats 0.1 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1.5 1
Animal Justice Party 1.8 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1 1
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers (SFF) Party 0.7 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.5 0.5
Justice Party n/a n/a n/a 2 2 1 1.5 0.5 0.5
Legalise Cannabis Party n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 0.5 0.5
‘Teal Independents’ n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 3 5 1 1
‘Other Independents’ 6.1 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 5.5 7
Other Parties 2.5 11 9.5 10 9.5 9 9.5 7.5 1
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

*August 2022 and September 2022 results are from Roy Morgan surveys done throughout the month of August via online and telephone interviewing. Previous results for September 2020 – August 11-13, 2022 are from Roy Morgan Snap SMS surveys.

Victorian Two-Party Preferred Voting Intention – Trends.

  Victorian Electors 18+  
  2018 Vic
Election
Oct
2020
Nov
2020
Nov 11,
2021
Nov 24,
2021
Jun 30 – Jul 2, 2022 Aug 11-13, 2022 Aug. 2022 Sept.
2022
2PP % % % % % % % % %
ALP 57.3 51.5 58.5 58 59.5 59.5 60.5 58 60
L-NP 42.7 48.5 41.5 42 40.5 40.5 39.5 42 40
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says that the ALP Government of Premier Daniel Andrews has extended its lead over the Liberal-National Coalition and now leads by 20% points and is heading for an easy election victory next month:

Block Quote

“The latest Roy Morgan Poll conducted online and via telephone in September in Victoria shows the ALP on 60% (up 2% points on August) is well ahead of the L-NP on 40% (down 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis less than two months out from this year’s Victorian State Election.

“Support for the ALP has strengthened in September with the primary support increasing 5.5% points to 42% in September over 10% points ahead of the L-NP on 28% (down 1% point). The Greens are largely unchanged on 14.5% – although that does represent an increase of 3.8% points on their 2018 Victorian State Election result.

“The Greens are targeting several seats to build on their record performance in 2018. The Greens won three seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly in 2018 including Melbourne, Prahran and for the first time Brunswick. The Greens are confident they can provide a strong challenge, and potentially win three other seats this time around including Richmond, Albert Part and Northcote – formerly held by Victorian Federal Senator Lidia Thorpe in 2017-18.

“As well as the Greens attempting to build on their success at the Federal Election there are several community independents mounting strong challenges in several key Melbourne seats including Kew (Sophie Torney), Hawthorn (Melissa Lowe), Caulfield (Nomi Kaltman), Brighton (Felicity Federico OAM) and Mornington (Dr. Kate Lardner).

“After the success of the so-called ‘Teal Independents’ at the Federal Election in May when six Independent MPs were elected in formerly ‘blue-ribbon’ Liberal-held seats in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth – one shouldn’t discount the possibility of a similar wave at the Victorian Election.

“The Roy Morgan Poll for September shows Independents attracting 8% of the State-wide support, up from 6.1% at the last State Election. Although support for ‘Teal Independents’ is at only 1%, this likely understates the support for ‘Teal candidates’ in particular and also reflects these candidates are only standing in a handful of seats.

“Overall, nearly a third of Victorians (30%) say they are going to vote for someone other than the two major parties – up from 21.9% at the last State Election four years ago. This represents a potential increase of 8.1% points from the 2018 Victorian State Election compared to the increase of 6.5% points seen when comparing the last two Federal Elections in 2019 and 2022.

“Although all the signs point to a clear victory for the ALP at next month’s Victorian State Election there is a strong possibility we will see a larger cross-bench after the election with new Greens and Independent members set to increase their standing in the Parliament.”

This special Roy Morgan Poll multi-mode poll was conducted via telephone and online interviewing with a cross-section of 1,379 Victorian electors aged 18+ conducted during the month of September 2022.

To purchase full demographic breakdowns by Gender, Age, City/Country including Voting Intention, Approval or Disapproval of Premier Daniel Andrews, Better Premier between Daniel Andrews and Matthew Guy and detailed quantitative and qualitative verbatim responses to the open-ended questions regarding concerns about a re-elected ALP Government led by Daniel Andrews or a potential Liberal-National Government led by Opposition Leader Matthew Guy for $9,800 contact Morgan Poll Manager Julian McCrann.
By Email: julian.mccrann@roymorgan.com. By Phone: 9224 5365.

For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.

About Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 80 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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