January 14, 2020

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence bounces to 107.3

Topic: Consumer Confidence, Press Release
Finding No: 8260
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Confidence gained 1% last week, recovering a bit more than half the loss seen in the prior survey. The bounce was primarily due to strength in the economic conditions sub-indices, which is not surprising, given that these were the aspects of the survey that fell sharply in last week’s report.

  • Current economic conditions gained 6.1% after the fall of 12.9% in the previous reading, while the future economic conditions figure almost reversed its previous loss by gaining 8.6%.
  • Current finances declined by 5.5%, dropping to its lowest level since June, while future finances gained 0.6% for the third consecutive increase.
  • The four-week moving average of ‘inflation expectations’ was down by 0.1ppt to 3.9%.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

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“The weekend’s consumer confidence survey is of considerable interest given the plunge in sentiment in economic conditions recorded over the first weekend of January. With milder weather seeing the intensity of fires diminish, though not by enough to prevent further tragic loss of life, and some better economic news in the form of building approvals, job vacancies and retail sales, it is not surprising that much of the weakness in economic conditions reversed. This was enough to push overall sentiment 1% higher. This offers some hope for some recovery in consumer spending after what appears to be a very subdued Christmas retail season.”

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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