November 12, 2019

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence down to 111.1

Topic: Consumer Confidence, Press Release
Finding No: 8132
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The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence index made a U-turn last week, falling 2.1%. All the subindices were in the negative, except future economic conditions.

  • After two weeks of strength, the financial conditions subindices faltered. Current finances fell 3.2%, while future finances declined 1.6%.
  • Economic conditions subindices were mixed, with current economic conditions declining 1.6%, while future economic conditions rose a marginal 0.3%.
  • The ‘Time to buy a household item’ continued with its see -saw pattern, falling 3.9% after a gain of 1.3% last week. The four-week moving average of inflation expectations (IE) remained stable at 4.0%, though the weekly reading saw an increase to back above 4%.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

Block Quote

“The fall in consumer confidence was a bit disappointing amidst strengthening global macroeconomic conditions and some reasonable domestic news in the form of a huge trade surplus and continued good news on housing. These data points were clearly not enough to offset a fall in the volume of retail sales for the September quarter, the first drop in annual retail volumes since the early 1990s recession, and a soft ANZ job ads. The defining feature of the survey remains the divergence between financial and economic conditions. The RBA will be pleased to see an up-tick in inflation expectations.”

Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Releases

Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian & Asia-Pacific Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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