July 12, 2022

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 2.1pts to 81.6 – lowest rating for a month

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9020
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On a State-based level Consumer Confidence was down in all four of the largest States but increased slightly in South Australia. The biggest driver of this week’s decline was an increase in people expecting ‘bad times’ for the economy over the next year.

Current financial conditions

  • Now 22% of Australians (up 1ppt) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 45% (up 2ppts), that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially (the highest figure for this indicator for over two years since March 2020).

Future financial conditions

  • Looking forward, fewer than a third of Australians, 30% (unchanged) expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to 34% (up 3ppts), that expect to be ‘worse off’.

Current economic conditions

  • However, only 7% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to 42% (up 4 ppts), that expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator for nearly two years since September 2020).

Future economic conditions

  • In the longer term, only 12% (down 1ppt) of Australians are expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 20% (up 1ppt) expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • When it comes to buying intentions now just 25% (down 1ppt) of Australians, say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 47% (unchanged), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

Block Quote

Consumer confidence declined for a second straight week, driven by concerns about both the economic outlook and household finances. The RBA’s 50bp rate hike last week weighed on sentiment, with confidence falling for those people paying off a mortgage by a sharp 5.4%. This continues the trend in place since late April when the high March quarter inflation report brought forward rate hike expectations. Since then, confidence amongst mortgage holders has fallen 25%, while confidence for renters is down just 4%. Inflation expectations lifted as petrol prices hover near record highs. Global oil prices dropped last week, boding well for Australia’s retail petrol prices over the coming weeks.”

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

Related Findings

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