June 01, 2021

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops 2.8pts to 111.4 as Melbourne & Victoria enter “Lockdown 4.0”

Topic: Consumer Confidence, Press Release
Finding No: 8710
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 2.8pts to 111.4 this week as Melbourne and Victoria were plunged into a fourth lockdown. Consumer Confidence is now almost level with the 2021 weekly average of 111.3 but is 13.1pts higher than the same week a year ago, May 30/31, 2020 (98.3).

This week’s decrease was driven by a drop in Melbourne, but there were also drops in other Capital Cities including Sydney and Brisbane. Moving lower this week was sentiment about the Australian economy over the next five years and whether now is a good time to buy major household items.

Current financial conditions

  • Now 31% (unchanged) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year and 26% (up 3ppts), say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

Future financial conditions

  • In addition, 40% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to only 16% (up 2ppts) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

Current economic conditions

  • Once again one-in-five Australians, 20% (unchanged), expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months while only 15% (unchanged), expect ‘bad times’.

Future economic conditions

  • In the longer term, just under a fifth of Australians, 19% (down 4ppts), are expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years (the lowest figure for this indicator for eight months since Victoria’s second lockdown in September 2020) compared to only 14% (up 1ppt) expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • A plurality of Australians, 42% (down 2ppts), say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 24% (up 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

"The announcement of a seven-day lockdown in Victoria in response to an outbreak of COVID-19 has impacted consumer confidence around the country. Confidence fell 3.8% in Melbourne, but was actually down more sharply in Brisbane (-4.7%) and Sydney (-4.5%). ANZ-Roy Morgan survey data show that short lock-downs don’t have a lasting impact on consumer sentiment. Nor has Victoria’s experience of lockdowns in 2020 driven a wedge between sentiment in that state and the rest of the country. This offers the prospect that even an extension of the current lockdown may not have too dramatic an impact on consumer sentiment. Of course, the absence of JobKeeper for this episode means we need to alert to worse results than the experience to date."

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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