Roy Morgan Research
August 10, 2021

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence drops below neutral level of 100 after SE Queensland & Victoria plunged into lockdown

Topic: Consumer Confidence, Press Release
Finding No: 8775
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped by 3.2pts to 98.6 this week after new lockdowns were imposed covering South-East Queensland and Victoria and more than 15 million people were placed under stay-at-home orders. Consumer Confidence is well below the 2021 weekly average of 109.9, however it remains 12.1 points higher than the same week a year ago, August 8/9, 2020 (86.5).

The new lockdowns in South-East Queensland and Victoria helped drive Consumer Confidence under the neutral level of 100 for the first time since early November 2020. Consumer Confidence in Queensland was down 7.8% on a week ago and Victoria was down 3.0%.

However, although still the lowest of all the States, Consumer Confidence in NSW increased by 3.7% on a week ago as curbs on some industries were relaxed with Construction resuming in much of Sydney. Interestingly, it was the same weekend a year ago, the first weekend in August, that Consumer Confidence bottomed during Victoria’s second wave as case numbers peaked at over 700.

The indices to drive Consumer Confidence lower this week were those related to personal financial situations and whether now is a ‘good/bad time to buy’ major household items.

Current financial conditions

  • Now only 24% (down 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the lowest figure for this indicator so far this year) and 31% (up 4ppts), say their families are ‘worse off’ financially (the highest figure for this indicator so far this year).

Future financial conditions

  • In addition, a plurality of 34% (down 3ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, compared to 18% (up 3ppts) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

Current economic conditions

  • Although there was a slight improvement this week only 13% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months while 28% (down 1ppt), expect ‘bad times’.

Future economic conditions

  • In the longer term, just a fifth of Australians, 20% (up 1ppt), are expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 17% (unchanged) expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • A significant factor behind this week’s decrease related to whether now is a good or bad time to buy major household items with 32% (down 4ppts), of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items (the lowest figure for this indicator for nearly a year since late August 2020) while 36% (up 4ppts) saying now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

"Consumer confidence dropped by 3.1% last week as fresh lockdowns were announced in parts of Queensland and Victoria. As a result, confidence dropped by 7.5% in Brisbane and 1.6% in Melbourne. Sydney and the rest of NSW, on the other hand, saw an increase in confidence of 3.7% and 2.1% respectively as the vaccination rate picked up and some restrictions on construction work were eased. Sentiment is still above the level reached during Victoria’s long second lockdown, but it is now in pessimistic territory for the first time since early November last year. Our research suggests we can’t be sure the low in confidence in the current cycle has been reached until COVID case numbers start to trend lower."

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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