September 10, 2019

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence falls to 113.3

Topic: Consumer Confidence, Press Release
Finding No: 8104
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence fell 1.0% last week. The fall was accentuated by a sharp decline of 7.1% seen in the ‘Time to buy a major household item’ sub-index.

  • Current finances fell by 1.2%, the second decline in a row, while future finances gained 1.7%. Both the indices are well above their long term averages.
  • Current economic conditions gained 1.4% after five straight declines. Future economic conditions gained 1.8% for its third consecutive increase. Australians are still wary of the economic outlook considering both the subindices are below their long terms averages.
  • Inflation expectations were stable at 4% on the four-week moving average.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

Block Quote

“A steep fall in the ‘Time to buy a major household item’ led to a decline in the overall confidence index to just above its long-run average. This sub-index fell to its lowest level since April and is well below average. It seems that tax cuts, lower interest rates and the associated turn in the housing market are not yet motivating people to consider a major household purchase. Interestingly, sentiment toward the economic outlook improved despite the weak Q2 GDP report. In saying this, we need to be mindful that sentiment toward the current economic outlook had declined for five consecutive weeks to its lowest level in more than two years. So the bounce in this sub-index is only modest.”

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Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian & Asia-Pacific Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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