ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increased 2.2pts to 100.1 during the third week of January. Notably, Consumer Confidence is still a significant 11.1pts below the same week a year ago, January 23/24, 2021 (111.2).
The largest State-based increases for Consumer Confidence were in Victoria (+7.5pts) and Western Australia (+8.4pts) during a week in which WA Premier Mark McGowan announced an extension to his State’s border closure. There were small declines in New South Wales and South Australia.
Driving the small increase were negative movements across the index with particularly large falls personal finances compared to a year ago current buying intentions.
Current financial conditions
- Now 27% (up 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 27% (down 3ppts), that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.
Future financial conditions
- Just over a third of Australians, 35% (down 1ppt), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, compared to only 17% (down 2ppts) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.
Current economic conditions
- However, just 11% (down 2ppts), of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to 28% (down 1ppt), that expect ‘bad times’.
Future economic conditions
- In the longer term, just under a fifth of Australians, 17% (unchanged), are expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 17% (unchanged) expecting ‘bad times’.
Time to buy a major household item
- In good news sentiment towards buying intentions has marginally improved with 34% (up 1ppt) of Australians, saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 35% (down 4ppts) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’
ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:
Consumer confidence increased 2.2% last week, rising above the neutral level of 100. The recovery came in the same week that the unemployment rate was reported as dropping to its lowest in more than 13 years. COVID cases appear to have peaked, though deaths unfortunately made new highs. Confidence was driven by rises of 7.7% in Victoria, 8.8% in WA and 3.7% in Queensland. But it dropped in NSW (-2.4%) and SA (-2.6%). The live entertainment of the Australian Open tennis and great weather might have added to Victoria’s positive outlook. Ahead of the Q4 2021 CPI data, inflation expectations recorded a 0.1ppt rise to match the recent high of 5% reached in December.
Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|Sample Size||Percentage Estimate|
|40% – 60%||25% or 75%||10% or 90%||5% or 95%|