September 28, 2021

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence increases for third straight week to 103.7 as Australians focused on domestic issues

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 8815
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was up for the third straight week, up by 0.4pts to 103.7 in late September. The small increase came as Australians focused on domestic issues in recent weeks after Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews outlined the State’s re-opening plan a week ago and both NSW and Victoria are now set to re-open during October. Despite the increase Consumer Confidence remains well below the 2021 weekly average of 108.5 but is now 8.7 points higher than the same week a year ago, September 26/27, 2020 (95.0).
This week's result shows that Prime Minister Scott Morrison's trip to the United States to cement the recently announced 'AUKUS' defence agreement with the United States and United Kingdom to secure nuclear submarines for Australia has had negligible impact on people back in Australia. The announcement of 'AUKUS' is the most important defence agreement for Australia since World War II.

Consumer Confidence this week was up slightly in Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia and down slightly in the other States. In good news for retailers, driving this week’s increase was an increasing proportion of Australians saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items. 

Current financial conditions

  • Now 28% (up 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year and an equal proportion of 28% (down 2ppts), say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

Future financial conditions

  • A decreasing plurality of 37% (down 1ppt) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year, compared to 14% (up 1ppt) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

Current economic conditions

  • An unchanged 14% of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months while 25% (up 1ppt), expect ‘bad times’.

Future economic conditions

  • However, in the longer term, just under a fifth of Australians, 18% (down 4ppts), are expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 18% (unchanged) expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • Buying intentions improved this week with 38% (up 4ppts) of Australians, saying now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 31% (down 1ppt) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

"Consumer confidence gained 0.4% nationally last week, even as Melbourne recorded its highest number of daily cases amidst anti-lockdown protests and tremors from a nearby 6.0 magnitude earthquake. Given the circumstances, sentiment in Melbourne held up quite well with a decline of just 0.9%. Confidence remained practically unchanged in Sydney with a rise of just 0.1% as daily cases started to descend. A more striking development this week is the rise in weekly inflation expectations to 4.8%. This has pushed the four week moving average to 4.7%, its highest level since 2014 – not long after the survey started collecting weekly data on inflation expectations. High inflation expectations at a time of weak wage growth could drag on overall consumer confidence if people start to worry about the cost of living."

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

Related Findings

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