August 16, 2022

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rebounds, up by 3.9pts to 84.2 – highest since late June 2022

Topic: Consumer Confidence
Finding No: 9045
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was up 3.9pts to 84.2 this week and is now 16.9pts below the same week a year ago, August 14/15, 2021 (101.1). In addition, Consumer Confidence is now 7.5pts below the 2022 weekly average of 91.7 and is now at its highest since late June 2022.

The increase in Consumer Confidence came a week after the plunge following the RBA’s decision to raise interest rates for a fourth straight month on the first Tuesday of August. Notably, average petrol prices dropped to $1.69 per litre last week – the first time they have been below $1.70 per litre since late April and the lowest they have been since mid-April ($1.66 per litre).

On a State-based level Consumer Confidence was up in the two largest States of NSW and Victoria, as well as WA, but down in Queensland and SA. The indicators to power this week’s increase were related to personal finances and prospects for the Australian economy over the next year.

Current financial conditions

  • Now 25% of Australians (up 3ppts) say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year compared to 41% (down 2ppts), that say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

Future financial conditions

  • Looking forward, fewer than a third of Australians, 32% (up 3ppts), expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to 31% (down 4ppts), that expect to be ‘worse off’.

Current economic conditions

  • Only 6% (unchanged) of Australians expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next twelve months compared to 37% (down 8ppts), that expect ‘bad times.’

Future economic conditions

  • In the longer term, just 13% (down 1ppt) of Australians are expecting ‘good times’ for the economy over the next five years compared to 20% (down 2ppts) expecting ‘bad times.’

Time to buy a major household item

  • When it comes to buying intentions now just 23% (unchanged) of Australians, say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 49% (up 1ppt), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

Block Quote

There was a notable recovery in consumer confidence over the past week, with the loss in the week of the RBA’s August rate hike more than completely reversed. Across the major states, confidence was up very strongly in Western Australia and made solid gains in New South Wales and Victoria. Confidence declined in Queensland and South Australia, however. It was notable that sentiment about ‘future financial conditions’ is now in positive territory, if only just, for the first time since late May. In our view this speaks to the strength of the labour market, which we expect to be confirmed by the data due later this week. But we aren’t getting carried away. Sentiment toward ‘future financial conditions’ is still well below average and overall confidence is deeply negative.”

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

Related Findings

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