Roy Morgan Research
July 21, 2020

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence slips 0.9 pts to 90.7 but down 2.6pts to 84.8 in Melbourne as COVID-19 cases surge

Topic: Consumer Confidence, Press Release
Finding No: 8470

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence dropped 0.9pts to 90.7 this week – and is now at its lowest for over two months since May 9/10, 2020 (90.3). The drop in Consumer Confidence was driven by a decline of 2.6pts in Melbourne to only 84.8.

The Victorian capital is now well below the national average as it battles a renewed outbreak of COVID-19. Consumer Confidence in Adelaide (92.8) and Sydney (91.0) was also down, although both are slightly above the national figure. Perth is the most confident city in Australia with Consumer Confidence surging 7.3pts to 103.4 as the city welcomed the AFL and football crowds back on the weekend.

Consumer Confidence is now 25.6pts lower than a year ago on the comparable weekend of July 20/21, 2019 (116.3) and 4.1pts below the 2020 weekly average of 94.8.

Current financial conditions

  • Now 23% (up 2ppts) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year (the lowest figure for this indicator for nearly three months since April 25/26, 2020) and 34% (unchanged) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

Future financial conditions

  • In addition 32% (down 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year compared to 20% (up 2ppts) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

Current economic conditions

  • However just 7% (unchanged) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months while 49% (up 1ppt), expect ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator for three months since April 18/19, 2020).

Future financial conditions

  • In the longer term, 18% (down 1ppt) of Australians are expecting ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next five years compared to 21% (up 1ppt) expecting ‘bad times’ (the highest figure for this indicator for nearly three months since April 25/26, 2020).

Time to buy a major household item

  • However, an increasing number of Australians, 35% (up 2ppts), say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 38% (up 2ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

Block Quote

“Confidence continues to decline as the situation in Melbourne worsens and the number of cases in Sydney rises. The decline in sentiment is nowhere near as severe as the fall seen in mid-March, however. The resilience shown by the ‘current finances’ sub-index, which has actually risen a touch since the end of May as overall sentiment has fallen by almost 8%, is also encouraging. Australia’s success in combating the first surge in the pandemic, as well as the expectation that the Government stands ready to extend support if required, is underpinning this resilience.”

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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