Roy Morgan Research
August 25, 2020

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence up 4.1pts to 92.7 as new cases of COVID-19 in Victoria plunge to lowest since early July

Topic: Consumer Confidence, Press Release
Finding No: 8500
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ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was up 4.1pts to 92.7 on August 22/23, 2020 and is at its highest since late June. Consumer Confidence is 21.4pts lower than a year ago on the comparable weekend of August 24/25, 2019 (114.1) and 1.2pts below the 2020 weekly average of 93.9.

Driving the increase this week was increasing confidence across all five indices led by confidence improving about Australia’s economic performance over the next year and next five years.

Current financial conditions

  • Now 25% (up 1ppt) of Australians say their families are ‘better off’ financially than this time last year and 34% (down 1ppt) say their families are ‘worse off’ financially.

Future financial conditions

  • In addition, 36% (up 2ppts) of Australians expect their family to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year (the highest figure for this indicator for over two months since mid-June) compared to 18% (down 1ppt) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially.

Current economic conditions

  • An increasing 7% (up 1ppt) expect ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next 12 months while 46% (down 5ppts), expect ‘bad times’.

Future financial conditions

  • In the longer term, just under a fifth, 19% (up 3ppts) of Australians are expecting ‘good times’ for the Australian economy over the next five years compared to 21% (down 1ppt) expecting ‘bad times’.

Time to buy a major household item

  • An increasing proportion of Australians, 33% (up 4ppts), say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items, while 37% (down 2ppts), say now is a ‘bad time to buy’.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

"In an encouraging development consumer confidence built on the gain seen in the previous week, with the strongest weekly gain for some time. The substantial decline in active cases in Melbourne and continued low numbers in Sydney have raised hopes that the pandemic can be contained without a broadening of lockdowns beyond those already in place. Although only one subcomponent is above the neutral level of 100, the gains made in the last two weeks have bought other subcomponents closer to that point, though ‘current economic conditions’ is still 38% below the neutral level. Confidence was up firmly across all states except Victoria and NSW, where the gains were more subdued. Sentiment is now above neutral in Perth and Adelaide."

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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