January 29, 2020

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence virtually unchanged at 108.0

Topic: Consumer Confidence, Press Release
Finding No: 8262
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After two straight weekly gains, confidence declined 0.3% last week.

  • ‘Overall financial conditions’ was flat, as a decline of 0.5% in ‘current finances’ was balanced by a similar increase in future finances. 
  • ‘Current economic conditions’ fell 1.8%, while ‘future economic conditions’ gained 3.5% last week.
  • ‘Time to buy a major household item’ was down 2.4% compared to a gain of 4.7% previously. The four-week moving average of ‘inflation expectations’ was stable at 3.9%.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics, David Plank, commented:

Block Quote

“Confidence declined modestly last week, despite the strong employment number. The news flow around the coronavirus and the potential implications for Chinese and Australian growth likely acted as a material offset to the more positive local news. There are a number of unusual influences on sentiment at present, such as the bushfires and coronavirus and the offsetting impact of strength in the labour market. This makes it more difficult than usual to assess how consumer spending will respond. We think this difficulty will see the RBA opting to wait for more information before it considers a further reduction in the cash rate.”

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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