November 27, 2020

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down 1.8pts to 106.9 in November

Topic: Consumer Confidence, Press Release
Finding No: 8582
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Consumer confidence was down 1.8pts to 106.9 in November, with the current and future conditions indexes falling by similar amounts. Consumer confidence remains under par – its historical average is around 120.

  • The key retail spending indicator in the survey is still very weak, suggesting the sharp overshoot in retail sales seen in Q3 is likely to fade relatively quickly. But inflation expectations are the highest in 10 years.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index eased 2 points in November. Unlike businesses, consumer confidence remains well short of levels prevailing last year.Turning to the detail:

  • Consumers’ perceptions of their current financial situation fell 2 pts to +1.
  • A net 27% of consumers expect to be better off financially this time next year, down 1.
  • A net 11% think it is a good time to buy a major household item, unchanged. That’s consistent with tough times ahead for the retail sector,
    but recent strength in retail sales has belied this indicator.
  • Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook lifted 3 points to a still-nervous -18%. The five-year outlook fell 7 points to +15%.
  • House price inflation expectations jumped another 1.8%pts to 6.4%. They rose in every region, and are strongest in the North Island excluding Auckland and Wellington (7.2%).
  • CPI inflation expectations rose 0.9%pts to 4.7%. The RBNZ discounts household expectations, but it’s notable that this is the highest read since the question was first asked in late-2009 – by far. This might reflect temporary supply disruptions reducing discounting on retail items.

Households are increasingly confident that the housing boom is going to continue, though this indicator does tend to lag the market rather than predict it. But they remain wary about whether it is a good time to buy a major household item. The latter has historically been the best retail spending indicator in the survey. It did not presage the sharp lift in retail sales seen in Q3. But there’s no reason to think that the indicator will be wrong once the volatility subsides. Accordingly, we expect that as one-offs wane, retail spending growth will drop back to something more sustainable.

Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Releases

Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand & Asia-Pacific Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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