July 01, 2022

ANZ Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down 1.8pts to 80.5 in June 2022

Topic: Consumer Confidence, Press Release
Finding No: 8997
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ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence was down 1.8pts to 80.5 in June, a touch above its record low, but still deep within the “something to worry about” zone.

  • The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, the best indicator for spending, was up 7% points to 28% while there were now 49%, down 2% points, who said now is a bad time to buy a major household item. This is a decent bounce, with the net indicator up 9 points to -21, but it’s too early to call this a recovery. This indicator is still dire in an absolute sense.

  • Inflation expectations reversed last month’s decline, up from 5.1% to 5.6%. Clearly, the RBNZ’s war on inflation isn’t won yet.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index fell 1.8 points in June. Households are dealing with a lot right now: incomes not keeping up with inflation, lifting interest rates, falling house and other asset prices, and ongoing COVID and general economic uncertainty. The good news: with the labour market so tight, job security is still looking good.

Turning to the detail:

  • Perceptions of current personal financial situations fell 5 points to -22%.

  • A net 3% expect to be worse off this time next year, down 2 points. It’s very unusual for this series to be negative.

  • Households continue to think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item with only 28% (up 7% points) saying it’s a ‘good time to buy a major household item’ compared to 49% (down 2% points) saying it’s a ‘bad time to buy’. These movements led to some improvement in the overall index in June with the net rating up 9 points to -21 but in an absolute sense this is extremely low and worrying for retailers.

  • Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook deteriorated to -47%. The five-year measure pared gains made in May, back at -5%.

  • House price inflation expectations lifted from 1.1% to 1.4%. Still low.

  • CPI inflation expectations lifted 0.5%pts to 5.6%, fully reversing last month’s decline.

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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