July 30, 2021

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence down 1pt to 113.1 in July

Topic: Consumer Confidence, Press Release
Finding No: 8770
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New Zealand Consumer Confidence was down 1pt to 113.1 in July.

New Zealand Consumer Confidence was down 1pt to 113.1 in July.

  • The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item, a key retail indicator, rose 2 points to +24.
  • Inflation expectations remain extremely high at 4.9%, while house price inflation expectations lifted from 5.8% to 6.4%.

Turning to the detail:

  • Perceptions of current financial situations dropped 6 points to +8%.
  • A net 23% expect to be better off this time next year, up 1.
  • A net 24% think it is a good time to buy a major household item, up 2 points to a fresh post-COVID high. This is the single best retail indicator in the survey.
  • Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook fell 5 points to -2%. The five-year outlook rose 2 points to +12%.
  • House price inflation expectations rose from 5.8% to 6.4%. They lifted again in Auckland (from 6.2% to 6.9%) and also rose in the South Island outside Canterbury from 5% to 6.7%.
  • CPI inflation expectations eased from 5.1% to 4.9%, still extremely high versus a more typical historical reading of around 3½%.

Households’ confidence about buying major items continues to lift. This likely reflects wealth effects from the housing boom for those lucky enough to own a house, as well as excellent job security in an exceptionally tight labour market.

Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Releases

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

Related Findings

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