ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence listed 1.4pts to 81.9 in July 2022
ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence lifted 1.4 points in July to 81.9 but is still very low.
- The proportion of people who believe it is a good time to buy a major household item was down 3% points to 25% while those saying its a bad time to buy major household items increased 2% points to 51% with the net overall figure down 4.4 points to -25, unwinding half of the previous month’s bounce.
- Inflation expectations eased from 5.6% to 4.9% in July, the lowest rate in a year. That’s a win, as it shows monetary tightening is gaining traction.
The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index was basically flat in July at very subdued levels. Households are understandably worried, with strong inflation eating into budgets, interest rates higher, house prices falling, and uncertainty ongoing. But in aggregate we haven’t seen a big pull-back in spending, which likely reflects the fact that there are job vacancies everywhere you look, and wages are rising.
Turning to the detail:
- Perceptions of current personal financial situations rose 6 points to -16%.
- A net 2% expect to be worse off this time next year, pretty steady.
- A net 25% of households think it’s a bad time to buy a major household item. This is extremely low, and a worry for retailers. But with the labour market so tight and weekly spending holding up, it’s not clear that a sharp slowdown is imminent.
- Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook improved slightly from -47% to -43%. The five-year-ahead measure remained at -5%.
- House price inflation expectations fell from 1.4% to just 0.7%, the lowest since May 2020.
- CPI inflation expectations fell 0.7% pts to 4.9%.
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Related Research Reports
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|Sample Size||Percentage Estimate|
|40% – 60%||25% or 75%||10% or 90%||5% or 95%|