May 29, 2020

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence up 12.5pts to 97.3 in May

Topic: Customer Satisfaction, Press Release
Finding No: 8326
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Consumer confidence bounced 12 points in May to 97.3, still well below par.

  • The net proportion of households who think it’s a good time to buy a major household item recovered 36 points to -15%.
  • The bounce is similar to what we’ve seen in Australia as fiscal and monetary policy measures ease the immediate pressure. But tough times lie ahead.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index bounced in May, but remains at very subdued levels.

Turning to the detail:

  • Consumers’ perceptions of their current financial situation lifted a mere 4 points to 0. The same number of respondents feel financially worse off as better off than a year ago. The wage subsidy scheme and lower interest rates have countered job losses so far.
  • A net 23% of consumers expect to be better off financially this time next year, up 9 points and the same level as September last year.
  • A net 15% think it’s not a good time to buy a major household item, a big bounce but still well under par for this series.
  • Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook lifted 10 points but remains very low at -46%. This series is most correlated with business confidence. The five-year outlook lifted 4 points to 24%.
  • House price inflation expectations fell into negative territory at -0.2%, driven by the regions, particularly the South Island outside of Canterbury (-1.5%). Inflation expectations eased 0.3%pts to 2.9%.

New Zealand consumers are catching their breath. Life is normalising as we move down the lockdown levels and COVID-19 is on the run, but job security has deteriorated markedly, and house prices are expected to go nowhere fast (figure 2). The willingness to by major household items has bounced to about where it troughed in the last recession – it’s hard to know if that’s good or bad news. But the upshot is that retailers will continue to do it tough well beyond the COVID-19 disruptions.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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