November 01, 2019

ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence up 4.5pts to 118.4 in October

Topic: Consumer Confidence, Press Release
Finding No: 8190
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Consumer confidence rose 4 points in October to 118, reversing last month’s fall.

  • The Current Conditions Index rose 2 points, while the Future Conditions Index rose 6 points. Both indexes reversed last month’s moves.
  • The proportion of households who think it’s a good time to buy a major household item fell 5 points to 36%, back where it was late last year.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index rose 4 points to 118 in October. The overall index, the Current Conditions Index (up 2 to 128) and the Future Conditions Index (up 6 to 112) all came very close to precisely reversing last month’s falls.

Turning to the detail:

  • Consumers’ perceptions of their current financial situation is the best it’s been since 2007, rising 9 points to a net 20% feeling financially better off than a year ago.
  • A net 29% of consumers expect to be better off financially this time next year, up 6 points versus last month.
  • A net 36% think it’s a good time to buy a major household item, down 5.
  • Perceptions regarding the next year’s economic outlook rose 7 points to a net 3% expecting conditions to worsen. The five-year outlook rose 6 points to +10%.
  • Confidence rose in every region, but most sharply in the North Island outside of Auckland and Wellington. Wellington remains the most optimistic region, and the South Island ex-Canterbury the least.
  • House price inflation expectations lifted a touch in Auckland (2.5%, up 0.5%pts) but fell in Wellington (2.8%, down 1.0%pts) and Canterbury (1.4%, down 1.0%pts). General inflation expectations were little changed at 3.3%.

Consumer confidence lifted 4 points this month to 118, close to its historical average of 120. Confidence in both current and future conditions lifted. Consumers remain warier about the future than about how things currently stand.

Courtesy of a still-tight labour market and lower interest rates, households are feeling pretty good. The one black mark in the survey was a lower proportion of people thinking it is a good time to buy a major household item, but the 5 point fall just took it back to where it sat late last year. Firms’ employment intentions and job ads have deteriorated in recent months, but we are yet to find out how this will feed through into employment.

Our confidence composite gauge combines business expectations and intentions with overall consumer sentiment to capture both the demand and supply side of the economy and give a better indicator for growth than either series alone.

The composite was little changed, remaining within recent (low) ranges (figure 2). It is consistent with our view that while firms are doing it a bit tough at the moment as the economy battles headwinds, the fundamentals for the New Zealand economy remain decent.

Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Releases

Latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand & Asia-Pacific Consumer Confidence Data Tables

Related Research Reports

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Monthly Report is available on the Roy Morgan Online Store. It provides demographic breakdowns for Age, Sex, State, Region (Capital Cities/ Country), Generations, Lifecycle, Socio-Economic Scale, Work Status, Occupation, Home Ownership, Voting Intention, Roy Morgan Value Segments and more.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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