Roy Morgan Research
November 08, 2021

Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales predicted to hit $5.4 billion

Topic: Press Release
Finding No: 8838

Australian retailers can look forward to a sales frenzy over the Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping period, with a record $5.4 billion predicted to be spent in stores and online according to research from the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) in conjunction with Roy Morgan.

Australian retailers can look forward to a sales frenzy over the Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping period, with a record $5.4 billion predicted to be spent in stores and online according to research from the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) in conjunction with Roy Morgan.

The four-day shopping period (this year, Friday 26 November to Monday 29 November 2021) originated in the United States to tie in with the Thanksgiving holiday and has taken off massively in Australia and is continuing to grow in popularity.

ARA CEO Paul Zahra said November is now Australia’s biggest shopping month of the year, and that can be mostly attributed to the spike in sales we see over Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

“For the past two years, November has beaten December as the biggest month for Australian retail sales throughout the year. Black Friday and Cyber Monday can be credited with this trend as people snap up some bargains and shop early for Christmas,” Mr Zahra said.

“We’re forecasting consumers to spend $5.4 billion over the four-day sales period. What began as an American shopping tradition has been embraced by Australians in a big way.

“This event is renowned for having the biggest pre-Christmas in-store and online bargains.

“The Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales provide strong momentum for Australian retailers heading into Christmas. The Christmas trading quarter is the most critical time of year on the retail calendar when most discretionary retailers make up to two thirds of their profits.

“However, consumers are cautioned. With our supply chains under significant pressure, consumers need to be shopping early if they want their products to arrive in time for Christmas. There are several issues that retailers are navigating at the moment - everything from Covid impacts, shipping delays and threats of industrial action from port workers and delivery drivers. There’s a perfect storm of issues so consumers need to get in quick to ensure they get the products they want.”

Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine says retail sales in November can expect a significant boost after around half of Australia’s population emerged from extended lockdowns during October.

“Retail sales for the Black Friday and Cyber Monday four-day shopping period are forecast to drive a surge in retail spending in November as Australians get in early for their Christmas gifts,” Ms Levine said.

“The end of long lockdowns in Sydney, Melbourne and Canberra will drive strong retail spending during the month to match, or even exceed, last year’s records.”


Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine and social scientist Dr. Ross Honeywill present the latest forecasts for the pre-Christmas retail environment and the prospects for Australian retail going forward into 2022. 

Roy Morgan has partnered with the Australian Retailers Association (ARA) to model the expected retail sales in the run-up to Christmas and Roy Morgan's data scientists are predicting pre-Christmas retail sales to match last year's record high of $58 billion, up a strong 11.3% from the pre-COVID level of 2019. Retail sales are forecast to be strong in the key States of NSW (up 10% from 2019) and Victoria (up 11.5%) that have been locked down. 

There are also strong results presented in detail for the other States that have largely remained free of lockdowns. On a category basis Hospitality is expected to have an especially strong season after being heavily impacted by COVID-19 over the last 18 months. 

Roy Morgan's data scientists have also forecast record sales for the Black Friday/Cyber Monday weekend. Retail sales growth is predicted to remain strong in Q1 2022, but Roy Morgan has identified several key threats to a strong retail recovery in 2022. 

The top five threats are 

  1. Rising Inflation; 
  2. Future Lockdowns; 
  3. Return of the Experience Economy; 
  4. Delivery delays slowing digital acceleration and 
  5. Australian retailers' price obsession. 

These risks to a strong retail environment in 2022 are explored in detail in this special 15-minute Micro Webinar on the Future of Retail.

About Roy Morgan
Roy Morgan is Australia’s largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state, as well as in the U.S. and U.K. A full-service research organisation, Roy Morgan has over 75 years’ experience collecting objective, independent information on consumers.

About the Australian Retailers Association
The Australian Retailers Association (ARA) is Australia’s oldest, largest and most diverse retail body, representing a $360bn sector which employs 1.3 million Australians. As Australia’s leading retail representative group, the ARA informs, advocates, educates, protects and unifies around 7500 independent, national and international retail members with more than 100,000 retail shop fronts. To learn more about ARA’s exclusive benefits and more, visit

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0418 224 072

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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