March 07, 2022

Honeymoon continues for National Leader Christopher Luxon with National support now at 38% – highest since January 2020

Topic: Federal Poll, Press Release
Finding No: 8912
RMR Logo

National/Act NZ (49.5%) now leads Labour/Greens (43%) by 6.5% points

Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows support for National increasing for the fifth month in a row, up 3% points to 38% and now at its highest for over two years since January 2020. Support for National has now increased 11.5% points in only three months since Luxon took over the leadership at the end of November 2021.

Support for a potential National/ Act NZ coalition government is now at 49.5% and clearly ahead of the current Labour/ Greens government of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on 43%.

Although support for National increased for a fifth straight month the increase in February again came at the expense of fellow right-leaning party Act NZ for which support fell 2% points to 11.5% to its lowest since June 2021. Since Luxon took over the leadership of National support for Act NZ has now dropped by 6% points. Support for the Maori Party was down 0.5% points to 2%.

In contrast, support for New Zealand’s Labour/Greens ‘coalition’ government was down 0.5% points to 43% in February – the fifth straight month of declines for the government. Labour support dropped 1% point to only 32% to the lowest since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern took office in late 2017 while support for the Greens increased 0.5% points to 11%.

A small minority of 5.5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament with support for New Zealand First down 0.5% points to 2%, The Opportunities Party down 0.5% points to 1% and support for the New Conservative Party unchanged at 1% in February.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 963 electors during January. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed 5%, down 2% points, did not name a party.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating drops 11.5pts to 95 in February

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dropped by 11.5pts in February to 95 to hit its lowest level since Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern was elected in October 2017.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is now down a massive 54.5pts from a year ago in February 2021 (149.5) and down 30pts from just September 2021 (125). These declines match a softening in support for the Government during this period as New Zealand has remained closed to the world while other countries, including neighbour Australia, have re-opened.

In February, 42.5% (down 6% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 47.5% (up 5.5% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand dropped 16pts to a new record low of 81.7 and is now well below the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 99.2 on Feb. 20-27, 2022 which has most recently been impacted by heavy flooding in Queensland.

Women continue to favour Labour/Greens while men firmly support National and Act NZ

Support for the Labour/ Greens coalition remains strong amongst women. Support for the Labour/ Greens coalition is at 52% for women aged 50+ compared to only 43.5% support for National/ Act NZ. For women aged 18-49 support is at 52% for the Labour/ Greens coalition compared to 44.5% for National/ Act NZ.

The smallest Parliamentary Opposition, the Maori Party, attracts the support of 3.5% of women including 5% of women aged 18-49 and 2% of women aged 50+.

There is a stark difference for men with 58.5% supporting National or Act NZ. In February 57% of men aged 18-49 supported National/ Act NZ compared to only 35.5% that supported Labour/ Greens. For men aged 50+ there were 60% supporting National/ Act NZ compared to 32.5% supporting Labour/ Greens.

The Maori Party attracts only 0.5% support from men including 0.5% support of men aged 18-49 and 1% support from men aged 50+.

Support for the Greens is far higher amongst both younger women and younger men than their older counterparts. One-in-five women aged 18-49 (20%) and almost one-in-six men aged 18-49 (15.5%) support the Greens compared to only 4% of women aged 50+ and just 5% of men aged 50+.

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

  Total Women Men
  All 18-49 50+ All 18-49 50+
  % % % % % % %
Labour 32 40.5 32 48 23.5 20 27.5
Greens 11 11.5 20 4 10.5 15.5 5
Labour/ Greens 43 52 52 52 34 35.5 32.5
               
National 38 31.5 29 34 44.5 39 50
Act NZ 11.5 9 10.5 7.5 14 18 10
Maori Party 2 3.5 5 2 0.5 0.5 1
National/ Act NZ/ Maori Party 51.5 44 44.5 43.5 59 57.5 61
               
Others 5.5 4 3.5 4.5 7 7.5 6
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
               
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
Right Direction 42.5 49 50 47.5 35.5 37.5 32.5
Wrong Direction 47.5 41 40 42.5 54.5 49.5 60
Government Confidence Rating 95 108 110 105 81 88 72.5
Can’t say 10 10 10 10 10 13 7.5
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 108 for Women compared to only 81 for men

The party support trends are confirmed by the latest Roy Morgan Government Confidence figures which are far more positive for women than men.

The overall results for the genders show that nearly half of women, 49%, say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to just over a third of men, 35.5%. In contrast, just over two-fifths of women, 41% say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ compared to over half of men (54%).

Overall, this produces a Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating of 108 for women compared to only 81 for men – a gap of over 25 points.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is highest for women aged 18-49 at 110 while for women aged 50+ it is still clearly in positive territory at 105. There is a larger difference for men with those aged 18-49 having a Government Confidence Rating of 88 and only 72.5 for men aged 50+.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says new Opposition Leader Christopher Luxon’s ‘honeymoon’ has continued for a third month with National now up 11.5% points to 38% since Luxon took over the leadership at the end of November 2021:

Block Quote

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll provides more confirmation that National made the right decision late last year to change leaders and install Christopher Luxon. Support for National is now at 38% – the highest for over two years since January 2020 (40%).

“The two big ‘losers’ from Luxon’s leadership have been Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party, with support down 4% points since November 2021 to 32%, and fellow right-wing party Act NZ, with support down 6% points to 11.5% during the same period. These results show that National has attracted almost equal amounts of support from both formerly right-wing and left-wing voters over the last three months.

“The emergence of the Omicron strain in February has also provided a new challenge for the Labour-led Government with New Zealand experiencing a high caseload of COVID-19 for the first time during the pandemic.

“Since the start of February there have been around 200,000 cases of COVID-19 identified in New Zealand and with over 20,000 cases per day identified on several days this week. This high caseload compares to a total of fewer than 20,000 cases in New Zealand throughout the entire course of the pandemic until early February.

“The emergence of the Omicron strain in the last few weeks has had big negative impacts not only on support for the Labour-led Government, but also on two key confidence measures. The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating plunged 11.5pts to 95.0 in February while the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was down 16pts to 81.7 – a new record low the long-running index.

“There is some positive news for the Government this week with New Zealand’s stringent border restrictions starting to ease as part of the long-awaited timetable. From last weekend fully vaccinated New Zealand citizens and residents are now able to return to the country from anywhere in the world without the need to self-isolate or enter quarantine.

“As New Zealand progressively opens up over the next seven months – with borders set to fully re-open by October 2022 – it will be interesting to see whether a re-opened country will lead to a recovery in support for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour-led Government or whether Opposition Leader Christopher Luxon’s star continues to rise.”

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-22

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – February 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 933.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – February 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 933

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – February 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 933

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the October 17, 2020 General Election:

PARTY VOTE Labour Green Party* National ACT NZ Maori Party** TOP** NZ First Other
ELECTIONS % % % % % % % %
                 
October 12, 1996* 28.19 10.10 33.87 6.10 n/a n/a 13.35 8.39
November 27, 1999 38.74 5.16 30.50 7.04 n/a n/a 4.26 14.30
July 27, 2002 41.26 7.00 20.93 7.14 n/a n/a 10.38 13.29
September 17, 2005 41.10 5.30 39.10 1.51 2.12 n/a 5.72 5.15
November 8, 2008 33.99 6.72 44.93 3.65 2.39 n/a 4.07 4.25
November 26, 2011 27.48 11.06 47.31 1.07 1.43 n/a 6.59 5.06
September 20, 2014 25.13 10.70 47.04 0.69 1.32 n/a 8.66 6.46
September 23, 2017 36.89 6.27 44.45 0.50 1.18 2.44 7.20 1.07
October 17, 2020 50.01 7.86 25.58 7.59 1.17 1.51 2.60 3.70
ROY MORGAN POLL                
November 2020 44 12.5 25.5 10.5 1 2 1.5 3
December 2020 44 10.5 28 10 2 2 2 1.5
2021                
January 2021 47 11.5 25 9 2 1.5 2 2
February 2021 45 13.5 29 7.5 1 1 1.5 1.5
March 2021 45.5 12 23 11 1 2 2.5 3
April 2021 41.5 13.5 29.5 9 2.5 0.5 1 2.5
May 2021 45 11 28.5 9 1.5 1.5 2 1.5
June 2021 38.5 12.5 29.5 11.5 2.5 2 1.5 2
July 2021 39.5 10 29 13 2.5 3 2 1
August 2021 39.5 12 25 13 2.5 2 2.5 3.5
September 2021 45.5 9.5 23 16 2 1.5 1.5 1
October 2021 39.5 10.5 26 16 2 1 2.5 2.5
November 2021 36 10.5 26.5 17.5 3 1.5 2.5 2.5
December 2021 35.5 8.5 31.5 18.5 1 1 2 2
2022                
January 2022 33 10.5 35 13.5 2.5 1.5 2.5 1.5
February 2022 32 11 38 11.5 2 1 2 2.5

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties.
**The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (Labour Party Govt.)
  Nov
2017
Dec
2017
Jan
2020
Feb
2020
Mar
2020
Apr
2020
May
2020
Jun
2020
Jul
2020
Aug
2020
Sep
2020
Oct
2020
Nov
2020
Dec
2020
  % % % % % % % % % % % % % %
Right direction 66.5 68 58 59 60.5 77 76 72 71.5 71 70.5 68.5 69.5 71.5
Wrong direction 20 18 29.5 27 25.5 14 17.5 18.5 19 19 19.5 21 20 18
Roy Morgan GCR# 146.5 150 128.5 132 135 163 158.5 153.5 152.5 152 151 147.5 149.5 153.5
Can’t say 13.5 14 12.5 14 14 9 6.5 9.5 9.5 10 10 10.5 10.5 10.5
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (Labour Party Govt.)        
  Jan
2021
Feb
2021
Mar
2021
Apr
2021
May
2021
Jun
2021
Jul
2021
Aug
2021
Sep
2021
Oct
2021
Nov 2021 Dec

2021

Jan
2022
Feb
2022
   
  % % % % % % % % % % % % % %    
Right direction 71.5 69.5 61.5 62.5 62.5 57 55.5 52.5 57 48 46 42.5 48.5 42.5    
Wrong direction 18.5 20 26 26.5 28.5 33 34.5 37.5 32 38.5 44.5 44.5 42 47.5    
Roy Morgan GCR# 153 149.5 135.5 136 134 124 121 115 125 109.5 101.5 98 106.5 95    
Can’t say 10 10.5 12.5 11 9 10 10 10 11 13.5 9.5 13 9.5 10    
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

#Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

The Roy Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and NZ member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

For comments or more information please contact:
Roy Morgan - Enquiries
Office: +61 (03) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

Related Findings

Back to top
Back To Top Arrow