April 27, 2022

L-NP closes gap on ALP for second straight week after the first Leaders’ Debate: ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%

Topic: Federal Poll
Finding No: 8947
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The L-NP gained a small 0.5% points, on a two-party preferred basis, during the second week of the campaign, but are still well behind the ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%, the latest Roy Morgan Poll, finds.

The second week of the campaign was dominated by the first Leaders’ Debate held in Queensland mid-week and then the forced isolation of Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese the very next day after testing positive to COVID-19. Albanese is due to emerge from isolation tomorrow.

Media discussion during the week centred on the Leaders’ Debate followed by the Solomon Islands signed ‘security arrangement’ with China which set off a ‘firestorm’ about the Federal Government’s commitment to protecting Australia’s security from foreign threats.

The two-party preferred result of ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5% is the closest for over six months since early November 2021 when the two-party preferred lead was 7% points: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5%.

If a Federal Election had been held last weekend the ALP would have won a clear majority.

Analysis by State shows the ALP now leads in four States on a two-party preferred basis but the L-NP has regained the lead in Queensland and continues and has increased its lead in Western Australia.

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing of 1,393 Australian electors aged 18+ from Monday April 18-24, 2022. There were 6% of electors (down 0.5% points) who wouldn’t say who they support.

Primary support unchanged for the major parties but down for the Greens, and up for ‘Others’

Primary support for the L-NP was unchanged at 35.5% and remains just ahead of the ALP on 35%, also unchanged from a week ago.

Support for the Greens was down 2% points to 12%, reversing the gains made the previous week after discussion turned to security matters involving the deal between the Solomon Islands and China.

Support for One Nation was unchanged at 4.5% and support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party was unchanged at 1.5%. There was a slight increase in support for Other Parties, up 0.5% points to 3.5% and a larger increase in support for Independents, up 1.5% points to 8%.

Voting Intention by State shows ALP leading in four of six States; L-NP ahead in WA & QLD

Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in four States with the L-NP regaining the lead in Queensland and increasing its margin in Western Australia. This is the first time the L-NP has lead in two States since mid-September 2021.

The ALP has slightly increased its lead in NSW with the ALP now on 55% (up 1.5% points) compared to the L-NP on 45% (down 1.5% points). This result represents a swing of 7.3% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The ALP has also slightly increased its lead in Victoria with the ALP on 60% (up 2% points) well ahead of the L-NP on 40 (down 2% points). This result represents a swing of 6.9% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.

In contrast, the L-NP has regained the lead in Queensland with the L-NP on 54.5% (up 6% points) ahead of the ALP on 45.5% (down 6% points). This result represents a large swing of 3.9% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

The L-NP has increased its lead in Western Australia and is now on 54.5% (up 3.5% points) ahead of the ALP on 45.5% (down 3.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis. Despite the L-NP’s narrow lead this represents a swing of 1.1.% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

In South Australia, there has been a swing to the ALP with support for the ALP on 61.5% (up 3.5% points from a week ago) well ahead of the L-NP on 38.5% (down 3.5% points). This represents a large swing of 10.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The ALP has a large lead in Tasmania with the ALP 64.5% cf. L-NP 35.5%, a swing of 5.5% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence up 6pts to 92 in the second week of the campaign

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 6pts to 92 in the second week of the election campaign with 38.5% (up 3.5% points) of Australians saying the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while 46.5% (down 2.5% points) say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Government Confidence is highest in South Australia at 107 – the only State for which the indicator is in positive territory above 100. However, there are positive signs with Government Confidence rising this week and approaching 100 in both Queensland (98.5) and New South Wales (96).

However, there are several States in which Government Confidence remains well below the neutral level of 100 including in Western Australia (83.5), Victoria (81.5) and Tasmania (76.5).

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the L-NP has continued to gain momentum, gaining a small swing of 0.5% points in the second week of the election campaign but still trails well behind the Opposition on a two-party preferred basis: ALP 54.5% cf. L-NP 45.5%:

Block Quote

“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP 54.5% (down 0.5% points) with a strong lead over the L-NP 45.5% (up 0.5% points) on a two-party preferred basis – although this is the closest margin between the two parties since early November 2021.

“Although the primary votes for both major parties remained unchanged with the L-NP on 35.5% just ahead of the ALP on 35%, there was a loss of support for the Greens, down 2% points to 12%, which led to a loss on two-party preferred support for the ALP. Support for the Independents was up 1.5% points to 8% while support for Other Parties increased 0.5% to 3.5%.

“Last week’s major event was the first Leaders’ Debate between Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese in Queensland. Although the debate was judged to be fairly close, the hand-picked audience in the room narrowly awarded the debate to Albanese: Albanese (40) cf. Morrison (35) with 25 voters undecided.

“The debate was broadcast on subscription channel Sky News and viewed by more than 400,000 – high for Sky but not if shown Australia-wide on free-to-air TV – this week’s Roy Morgan Poll shows the apparent victory of Albanese has had no impact on the overall voting intention results with the ALP losing ground.

“The other big issue to emerge during the past week was the ‘security arrangement’ signed by the Solomon Islands and China which many speculated will lead to the Chinese building military bases in the South Pacific country.

“The two major parties traded blame over who was responsible for allowing this to happen and also which party would be best equipped to deal with the potential threat of a rising and militaristic Chinese ‘threat’. The debate appears to have helped the L-NP gain ground among older voters with two-party preferred support for the L-NP rising amongst voters aged 35+ although there was an increase of support for the ALP among younger voters under 35.

“A look at this week’s results by age showed the ALP strengthening its position amongst 18-35 year olds: ALP 69% (up 2% points) cf. L-NP 31% (down 2% points), however, the L-NP gained support amongst all older age groups.

35-49 year olds: ALP 57.5% (down 2% points) cf. L-NP 42.5% (up 2% points);
50-64 year olds: ALP 47.5% (down 3% points) cf. L-NP 52.5% (up 3% points);
65+ year olds: ALP 43% (down 0.5% points) cf. L-NP 57% (up 0.5% points).

“Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese is set to emerge from COVID-19 isolation protocols tomorrow and re-join the campaign and with just over three weeks to go until election day the chances of Australia’s first ‘Hung Parliament’ in over a decade are increasing as the L-NP cuts into the ALP’s significant advantage.”

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022)

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–April 2022. Base: Australian electors 18+.

Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022) – Female Electors

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=1,000. May 2019–April 2022. Base: Female electors 18+.

Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022) – Male Electors

Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=1,000. May 2019–April 2022. Base: Male electors 18+.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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