A Roy Morgan Poll conducted during the first week of the election campaign shows the L-NP gaining 2% points on a two-party preferred basis, but still well behind the ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%.
The first week of the campaign was dominated by Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese’s ‘gaffe’ when the ALP Leader was unable to name the current official ABS unemployment rate and was also unable to name the correct interest rates set by the RBA.
The two-party preferred result of ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45% is the closest for over six months since early November 2021 when the two-party preferred lead was 7% points: ALP 53.5% cf. L-NP 46.5%.
If a Federal Election had been held last weekend the ALP would have won a clear majority.
Analysis by State shows the ALP now leads in five States on a two-party preferred basis but the L-NP has regained the lead in Western Australia after the first week of the campaign.
This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing of 1,382 Australian electors aged 18+ from Monday April 11-17, 2022. There were 6.5% of electors (unchanged) who wouldn’t say who they support.
Primary support up for the L-NP and Greens, but down for ALP, Other Parties and Independents
Primary support for the L-NP increased 3% points to 35.5% and is now ahead of the ALP on 35%, down 1% point. This is the first time for over six months since early November 2021 that the L-NP has been ahead of the ALP on primary voting support.
The Greens were the other party to pick up support in the campaign’s first week, up 1.5% points to 14%. This is the highest level of support for the Greens since the last Federal Election and came after Greens Leader Adam Bandt’s quip to a journalist asking a question about wage growth to ‘Google it, mate’.
Support for One Nation was down 0.5% points to 4.5% while support for Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party was unchanged at 1.5%. Support for Other Parties was down 1% point to 3% while support for Independents was down 2% points to 6.5%.
Voting Intention by State shows the ALP leading in five of the six States; L-NP ahead in WA
Although some of the State samples are relatively small, when there are large swings, such as in WA, they are still a significant measure of sentiment. The large swing to the L-NP in WA also indicates that after the Federal Election was called electors in that State are now re-focusing their attention onto national politics rather than thinking more about State issues in which the ALP is dominant.
Voting analysis by State shows the ALP leading on a two-party preferred basis in five States with the L-NP’s slight edge in Western Australia the only exception after the first week of the election campaign. The L-NP gained ground in NSW, WA and Tasmania this week.
The ALP’s lead in NSW has been cut after Prime Minister Scott Morrison called the Federal Election for late May. The ALP is now on 53.5% (down 1.5% points) compared to the L-NP on 46.5% (up 1.5% points). This result represents a swing of 5.8% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
The situation is unchanged in Victoria with the ALP on 58% well ahead of the L-NP on 42%. This result represents a swing of 4.9% points to the ALP in Victoria since the 2019 Federal Election.
The ALP has increased its narrow advantage in Queensland with the ALP on 51.5% (up 1% point) ahead of the L-NP on 48.5% (down 1% points). This result represents a large swing of 9.9% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
The L-NP has made a big comeback in Western Australia and is now ahead on a two-party preferred basis for the first time since mid-September 2021. The L-NP on 51% (up 14.5% points) now leads the ALP on 49% (down 14.5% points). Despite the L-NP’s narrow lead this represents a swing of 4.6% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
In South Australia, there has been a swing to the ALP this week with support for the ALP on 58% (up 5% points from a week ago) well ahead of the L-NP on 42% (down 5% points). This represents a swing of 7.3% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election. The ALP has a large lead in Tasmania with the ALP 61% cf. L-NP 39%, a swing of 2% points to the ALP since the 2019 Federal Election.
Roy Morgan Government Confidence up 2pts to 86 in the first week of the campaign
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased 2pts to 86 in the first week of the election campaign after Prime Minister Scott Morrison set the date for the election as Saturday May 21, 2022.
Now just over a third of Australians, 35% (down 1% point), say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while a plurality of 49% (down 3% points) say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.
Government Confidence remains below 100 in all six States however, there remains a wide divergence of nearly 25pts between different States. Government Confidence is above average and highest in Western Australia on 97, South Australia on 93 and Victoria on 91.5.
Government Confidence is below average in Queensland on 85.5, New South Wales on 80 and lowest of all in Tasmania on only 73.5 after the unexpected resignation of Tasmanian Premier Peter Gutwein.
Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the L-NP has won the first week of the official election campaign with a 2% point swing to the Government closing the gap between the two major parties although the ALP still leads comfortably: ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%:
“Today’s Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention shows the ALP 55% (down 2% points from a week ago) with a strong lead over the L-NP 45% (up 2% points) on a two-party preferred basis – although this is the closest margin between the two parties since early November 2021.
“There was a swing to the L-NP on the primary vote, up 3% points to 35.5%. This is the L-NP’s best result, and also the first time the party has received more primary support than the ALP, since November 2021. Support for the ALP was down 1% point to 35%.
“The most notable event of the first week of the campaign was Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese’ failure to answer a simple questions about Australia’s official ABS unemployment rate as well as the RBA’s official cash rate – which is at a record low of only 0.1%. Albanese couldn’t recall either figure and his uncertainty led to days of negative media coverage.
“The media commentary around Albanese’s ‘gaffe’ highlighted the fears many Australians have about the ALP’s ability to manage the economy. Australians have consistently regarded the L-NP as better economic managers than the ALP.
“The media tried a similar ‘gotcha’ question on Greens Leader Adam Bandt later in the week regarding the wage price index. Instead of directly answering the question Bandt told the journalist to ‘Google it, mate’ – and this strategy appears to have paid off. Greens support increased 1.5% points to 14% – the highest it has been since the last Federal Election.
“Although the Greens gained in support over the last week there has been considerable media analysis of Adam Bandt’s promises and how they would be funded which wasn’t properly explained when he made the promises. Bandt has since clarified that funding of the promises will be made by taxes increasing substantially on large companies – such as Australia’s mining companies, rather than increasing taxes on individuals.
“Rather than switching to the L-NP it appears some ALP voters frustrated with Albanese’s lack of knowledge concerning interest rates and unemployment decided instead to switch their vote to the Greens. The gains to the L-NP and Greens also came at the expense of ‘Other Parties’ with support dropping 1.5% points to 9% and Independents, down 2% points to 6.5%.
“Other highlights of the first week of the campaign included the concerns about the potential agreement between near-neighbour the Solomon Islands and China with Pacific Minister Zed Seselja making an unusual diplomatic trip to the Solomons during an election campaign. There was also Australia’s purchase of a Norwegian supply vessel for the defence forces and a commitment to build two new navy ships in Western Australia made by Prime Minister Morrison.
“Liberal infighting continued in New South Wales with some moderate Liberals calling for Morrison’s hand-picked candidate for Warringah, Katherine Deves to step aside following past comments on transgender women, however Morrison stood firmly behind Deves and claimed he ‘wouldn’t join the pile on’.
“Tonight is the first leader’s debate between Prime Minister Morrison and Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese to be held at 7pm at the ‘People’s Forum’ in Brisbane hosted by Sky News.”
Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022)
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=2,000. May 2019–April 2022. Base: Australian electors 18+.
Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022) – Female Electors
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=1,000. May 2019–April 2022. Base: Female electors 18+.
Australian Federal Voting Intention: Two-Party Preferred (2019-2022) – Male Electors
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source. Average interviews per fortnight n=1,000. May 2019–April 2022. Base: Male electors 18+.
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Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|Sample Size||Percentage Estimate|
|40% – 60%||25% or 75%||10% or 90%||5% or 95%|