June 25, 2020

Nationwide L-NP (50.5%) holds narrow lead over ALP (49.5%) a week before the Eden-Monaro by-election

Topic: Federal Poll, Press Release
Finding No: 8454
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Support for the L-NP has dropped to 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5% on a two-party preferred basis in mid-June according to telephone and online interviewing conducted over the weekends of June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020 with a representative cross-section of 2,593 Australian electors.

L-NP support is down 2% points from mid-May although the Government has now held the two-party preferred lead for three months since lockdowns were enforced around Australia in late March.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence remains near decade highs at 124

In addition the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has continued at a near record high of 124 in mid-June, down 1pt since mid-May. Government Confidence has now been above 120 since early April – the longest run at such a high level since the last four months of 2010.

Now a majority of 53.5% (down 1% point since mid-May) of Australians say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’, while only 29.5% (unchanged say the country is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Primary Voting Intention

Primary support for the L-NP is now at 42.5% (down 2% points since mid-May) but still well ahead of the ALP on 34.5% (up 1.5%).

Greens support is down 0.5% to 10.5% while support for One Nation is at 4% (up 0.5%). Support for Independents/Others is up 0.5% to 8.5%.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan says:

Block Quote

“The L-NP Government (50.5%) retains a narrow two-party preferred lead over the ALP (49.5%) ahead of next week’s Eden-Monaro by-election.The L-NP’s lead has slipped by 2% points from a month ago even as the COVID-19 pandemic has eased in much of Australia.

“Next week’s by-election is crucial as a win would increase the L-NP’s small majority in the House of Representatives to 78 of 151 seats. An L-NP win at the Eden-Monaro by-election would also be the first time a Government has won a by-election from the Opposition for 100 years since 1920.

“Eden-Monaro has traditionally regarded as a ‘bellwether’ of the broader Australian electorate and was won by the party of Government at every Federal Election from 1972 (won by the ALP and Gough Whitlam) through to 2013 (won by the L-NP and Tony Abbott).

“However, this four decade streak ended in 2016 when popular former ALP Member Mike Kelly won the seat but the L-NP won the Federal Election under former PM Malcolm Turnbull. It is Kelly’s resignation in late April that prompted next week’s by-election.

“Playing on the minds of local electors will be the response of Prime Minister Scott Morrison and the L-NP Government to the twin crises of 2020 – devastating bushfires in the summer and shortly after the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

“Both have had a huge impact on Eden-Monaro with large tracts of forests, and homes, destroyed during the summer and the economic lifeblood of the region – tourism – shut-down because of the dangers posed by the fires and the subsequent shut-down orders enforced across Australia.

“Scott Morrison was widely criticised for his handling of the bushfires but has redeemed himself and his Government in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and this is borne out by the huge surge in the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating.

“Roy Morgan Government Confidence hit a record low of only 80 during the bushfires but staged a remarkable recovery as shutdowns were enforced in late March. Government Confidence has been above 120 since early April and is now at 124 in mid-June. This is the longest run of high Government Confidence above 120 since the height of the mining boom a decade ago in 2010.”

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

Australian Two-Party Preferred Voting Intention

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”.

ElectorsRight DirectionWrong DirectionGovernment Confidence RatingCan’t sayTotal
%%GCR%%
May 16/17 & 23/24, 202054.529.512516100
June 13/14 & 20/21, 202053.529.512417100
Change-1--1pts+1

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Federal Voting Intention

Voting IntentionRight DirectionWrong DirectionGovernment Confidence RatingCan’t sayTotal
%%GCR%%
L-NP
May 16/17 & 23/24, 202073.514.515912100
June 13/14 & 20/21, 202075.513.516211100
Change+2-1+3pts-1
ALP
May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020453810717100
June 13/14 & 20/21, 202043.536.510720100
Change-1.5-1.5-+3
Greens
May 16/17 & 23/24, 202028.55177.520.5100
June 13/14 & 20/21, 202027.556.57116100
Change-1+5.5-6.5pts-4.5
Independents/Others
May 16/17 & 23/24, 202030.54684.523.5100
June 13/14 & 20/21, 202032.546.58621100
Change+2+0.5+1.5pts-2.5
Can’t say*
May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020542213224100
June 13/14 & 20/21, 202044.524.512031100
Change-9.5+2.5-12pts+7

Electors were asked: “If an election for the House of Representatives were held today – which party will receive your first preference? and “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

This Roy Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention and Roy Morgan Government Confidence was conducted via telephone and online interviewing last weekend. Roy Morgan interviewed 2,593 Australian electors aged 18+ on the weekends of June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020. A higher than usual 7% of electors can’t say who they support.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Region

RegionRight DirectionWrong DirectionGovernment Confidence RatingCan’t sayTotal
%%GCR%%
Capital Cities
May 16/17 & 23/24, 202054.529125.516.5100
June 13/14 & 20/21, 202052.530.512217100
Change-2+1.5-3.5pts+0.5
Country Areas
May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020543012416100
June 13/14 & 20/21, 202054.528.512617100
Change+0.5-1.5+2+1

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by State

StateRight DirectionWrong DirectionGovernment Confidence RatingCan’t sayTotal
%%GCR%%
NSW
May 16/17 & 23/24, 202056.528.512815100
June 13/14 & 20/21, 20205433.5120.512.5100
Change-2.5+5-75pts-2.5
Victoria
May 16/17 & 23/24, 20205427.5126.518.5100
June 13/14 & 20/21, 20205130120.519100
Change-3+2.5-6pts+1.5
Queensland
May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020513311816100
June 13/14 & 20/21, 20205226.5125.521.5100
Change+1-6.5+7.5pts+5.5
WA
May 16/17 & 23/24, 20206422.5141.513.5100
June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020642014416100
Change--2.5-2.5pts+2.5
SA
May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020473611117100
June 13/14 & 20/21, 20205530.5124.514.5100
Change+8-5.5-13.5pts-2.5
Tasmania
May 16/17 & 23/24, 20204237.5104.520.5100
June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020453610919100
Change+3-1.5+4.5pts-1.5

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Gender

GenderRight DirectionWrong DirectionGovernment Confidence RatingCan’t sayTotal
%%GCR%%
Women
May 16/17 & 23/24, 202055.526.512918100
June 13/14 & 20/21, 2020532812519100
Change-2.5+1.5-4pts+1
Men
May 16/17 & 23/24, 20205332.5120.514.5100
June 13/14 & 20/21, 20205431.5122.514.5100
Change+1-1+2pts-

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – by Age

AgeRight DirectionWrong DirectionGovernment Confidence RatingCan’t sayTotal
%%GCR%%
18-34
May 16/17 & 23/24, 2020453411121100
June 13/14 & 20/21, 202049.530119.520.5100
Change+4.5-4+8.5pts-0.5
35-49
May 16/17 & 23/24, 202054.529125.516.5100
June 13/14 & 20/21, 202048.531.511720100
Change-6+2.5-8.5pts+3.5
50-64
May 16/17 & 23/24, 202054.530124.515.5100
June 13/14 & 20/21, 202056.531125.512.5100
Change+2+1+1pts-3
65+
May 16/17 & 23/24, 202064.523.514112100
June 13/14 & 20/21, 20206026.5133.513.5100
Change-4.5+3-7.5pts+1.5

For further information:

ContactOfficeMobile
Gary Morgan:+61 3 9224 5213+61 411 129 094
Michele Levine:+61 3 9224 5215+61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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