May 28, 2021

New Zealand Labour-led Government leads Opposition by 17% in May: 56% cf. 39%

Topic: Federal Poll
Finding No: 8719
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Support for New Zealand’s Labour/Greens government was up 1% point to 56% in May. Support for the Labour Party was up 3.5% points to 45% while support for the Greens dropped 2.5% points to 11%.

The governing parties are now 17% points ahead of the Parliamentary opposition National/Act NZ/ Maori Party on 39%, down 2% points since April. Support for National was down 1% point to 28.5% in May, support for Act NZ was unchanged at 9% and Maori Party support dropped by 1% point to 1.5%.

A small minority of 5% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament with support for NZ First up 1% point to 2% and The Opportunities Party (TOP) up 1% point to 1.5% in May.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 932 electors during May. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed there were 4% (down 2% points) who didn’t name a party.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating down slightly to 134 in May

Despite a small decline, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was at a high 134 in May, down 2pts from 136 in April.

In May an unchanged majority of 62.5% of New Zealand electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to just over a quarter, 28.5% (up 2% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The latest monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was also down slightly in May at 114.0, down 1.4pts from April (115.4) and is now just below the corresponding Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 114.2 on May 23/24, 2021.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s face-to-face meeting with Australian PM Scott Morrison this week is a prime opportunity for the two leaders to discuss several important issues:

“This week the Prime Ministers of New Zealand and Australia are meeting in person in Queenstown on the South Island for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic began more than a year ago. The meeting is taking place after an outbreak of the virus in Victoria led to New Zealand shutting its borders to the state indefinitely.

“There is no surprise New Zealand decided to shut its borders to Victoria, but the decision does raise questions about when snap border closures between the two countries because of COVID-19 outbreaks can be consigned to history.

“In late May New Zealand has administered over 550,000 doses of COVID-19 vaccines, and fully vaccinated around 5% of the adult population, while Australia has administered over 4 million COVID-19 vaccines and fully vaccinated around 2% of the country’s adult population.

“As the proportion of the adult population that are vaccinated in the two countries increases there should be no need to enforce border closures once certain vaccination thresholds are met. This will provide certainty to businesses, such as tourism and travel businesses, that are relying on the ‘Trans-Tasman Bubble’ remaining open.

“Another important issue is the relationship with China. China is the largest trading partner of both New Zealand and Australia – although there have been significant trade tensions between China and Australia over the last year.

“New Zealand has largely managed to stay out of the dispute between the two countries but there is likely to be significant pressure from Australian PM Scott Morrison to ‘pick a side’ and support the Australian point-of-view in the dispute. This presents a tricky position for the Labour-led Government which would prefer to see the issues resolved amicably as soon as possible.

“Perhaps the most relevant factor is the political positions of the two leaders. Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows the Labour-led Government has the support of 56% of New Zealand electors and recently won a comprehensive election victory.

“In contrast, Australian PM Scott Morrison is facing an election due in the next 12 months and has a very slim majority with 76 seats out of 151 and the latest Morgan Poll on voting intention shows the ALP 50.5% with a narrow two-party preferred lead over the L-NP on 49.5%.”'

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-21

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – May 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 925.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – May 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 925.

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – May 2021. Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 925.

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 23, 2017 General Election:

PARTY VOTELabourGreen Party*NationalACT NZMaori Party**TOP**NZ FirstOther
ELECTIONS%%%%%%%%
October 12, 1996*28.1910.1033.876.10n/an/a13.358.39
November 27, 199938.745.1630.507.04n/an/a4.2614.30
July 27, 200241.267.0020.937.14n/an/a10.3813.29
September 17, 200541.105.3039.101.512.12n/a5.725.15
November 8, 200833.996.7244.933.652.39n/a4.074.25
November 26, 201127.4811.0647.311.071.43n/a6.595.06
September 20, 2014  25.1310.7047.040.691.32n/a8.666.46
September 23, 201736.896.2744.450.501.182.447.201.07
October 17, 202050.017.8625.587.591.171.512.603.70
ROY MORGAN POLL
January 20204010.54031.50.52.52
February 202040.510.5373.511.551
March 202042.511.5373.50.5131
April 202055730.52.51.50.52.50.5
May 202056.5726.53.51.512.51.5
June 202054.5927511.51.50.5
July 202053.5826.56.50.51.51.52
August 20204811.528.560.512.52
September 202047.59.528.570.51.52.53
NZ Election 2020507.925.67.61.21.52.63.7
November 20204412.525.510.5121.53
December 20204410.528102221.5
January 20214711.525921.522
February 20214513.5297.5111.51.5
March 202145.5122311122.53
April 202141.513.529.592.50.512.5
May 2021451128.591.51.521.5

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties.
**The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.

Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

Labour Party-led Government(Labour, Greens)Parliamentary
Opposition Parties
(National, Act NZ & Maori)
2020
NZ Election, October 17, 2020*57.8734.33
ROY MORGAN NEW ZEALAND POLL
Labour wins the NZ Election and, despite securing a majority of seats in Parliament,
signs a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens – October 31, 2020
November 202056.537
December 202054.540
2021
January 202158.536
February 202158.537.5
March 202157.535
April 20215541
May 20215639


*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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