October 12, 2017

New Zealanders say the DPRK will use a nuclear weapon

Topic: Press Release, Public Opinion, Special Poll
Finding No: 7346
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A special Roy Morgan SMS Survey taken in late September, after the New Zealand Election, shows a majority (58%) of New Zealanders saying it is either ‘Very likely’ (19%) or ‘Fairly likely’ (39%) that North Korea will use a nuclear weapon compared to 42% that say it is ‘Fairly unlikely’ (31%) or ‘Very unlikely’ (11%).

These figures are a reverse of the Australian result surveyed in mid-September which showed 51% of Australians believe it is ‘Fairly/Very unlikely’ North Korea will use a nuclear weapon compared to 49% of Australians that say it is ‘Fairly/Very likely’.

The majority of New Zealanders (78%) want the opposing sides in the North Korean stand-off to reach a peaceful diplomatic solution, a similar result to Australia, and only 22% believe a peaceful diplomatic solution isn’t working and a military one is needed.

This special Roy Morgan SMS Survey was conducted in late September with a cross-section of 1,888 New Zealanders aged 18+.

Questions: “In your opinion how likely is it that North Korea will use a nuclear weapon?” and respondents were then asked “Which of these two options would you support with regards to North Korea and their ongoing nuclear and missile tests. Continue to try to reach a peaceful diplomatic solution or a peaceful diplomatic solution is not working; a military one is needed?”

Analysis by Voting Preference: Q1 – North Korea using a nuclear weapon

Analysing the results by voting preference shows a majority of supporters of the major parties National, Labour and New Zealand First think it likely North Korea will use a nuclear weapon whereas a slight majority of Greens supporters think it is unlikely.

Total
NZ
Electors Labour National NZ First Greens Other Can’t say Non
Electors
Total

Australia

  % % % % % % % % % %
Very likely 19 19 28 15 16 15 12 30 15 16
Fairly likely 39 38 31 45 44 31 35 46 30 33
Total likely 58 57 59 60 60 46 47 76 45 49
Fairly unlikely 31 33 32 31 22 41 36 21 36 33
Very unlikely 11 10 9 9 18 13 17 3 19 18
Total unlikely 42 43 41 40 40 54 53 24 55 51
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Q2 – Peaceful diplomatic solution or Military solution

As expected large majorities of supporters of all parties are in favour of a peaceful diplomatic solution rather than a military solution.

Total

NZ

Electors Labour National NZ First Greens Other Can’t say Non electors Total

Australia

  % % % % % % % % % %
Peaceful 78 78 80 75 74 89 63 85 79 81
Military 22 22 20 25 26 11 37 15 21 19
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Analysis by Gender & Age: Q1 – North Korea using a nuclear weapon

Analysis by gender shows women and men differ on the tense situation with women much more concerned than men when considering the likelihood that North Korea might use nuclear weapons than not whilst it is those aged 35-64 who are most certain North Korea will use a nuclear weapon with older and younger New Zealanders more evenly split on the question.

Total

NZ

Gender Age Total

Australia

Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+
  % % % % % % % % %
Very likely 19 12 25 14 14 23 24 16 16
Fairly likely 39 30 43 38 42 40 38 37 33
Total likely 58 42 68 52 56 63 62 53 49
Fairly unlikely 31 38 29 38 33 28 28 33 33
Very unlikely 11 20 3 10 11 9 10 14 18
Total unlikely 42 58 32 48 44 37 38 47 51
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Q2 – Peaceful diplomatic solution or Military solution

Large majorities of both genders and all ages are in favour of a peaceful diplomatic solution rather than a military solution although it is the youngest New Zealanders, those aged 18-24, who are most pre-disposed to a potential military solution (32%).

Total

NZ

Gender Age Total

Australia

Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+
  % % % % % % % % %
Peaceful 78 74 81 68 82 78 76 82 81
Military 22 26 19 32 18 22 24 18 19
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Analysis by Regions: Q1 – North Korea using a nuclear weapon

Analysing the results by region it is outside New Zealand’s two largest cities that respondents are most convinced North Korea will use a nuclear weapon – highest on the North Island outside Auckland and Wellington, and highest outside Canterbury on the South Island.

Respondents in Auckland and Wellington are split almost right down the middle on the question.

  Region  
  Total

NZ

Auckland Wellington Other

North Island

Canterbury Other

South Island

Total

Australia

  % % % % % % %
Very likely 19 17 15 20 23 20 16
Fairly likely 39 35 35 40 34 39 33
Total likely 58 52 50 60 57 59 49
Fairly unlikely 31 37 37 29 31 32 33
Very unlikely 11 11 13 11 12 9 18
Total unlikely 42 48 50 40 43 41 51
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Q2 – Peaceful diplomatic solution or Military solution

At least three quarters of respondents in each region believe a peaceful diplomatic solution must be pursued compared to less than a quarter of respondents that would prefer a military solution.

  Region  
  Total

NZ

Auckland Wellington Other

North Island

Canterbury Other

South Island

Total

Australia

  % % % % % % %
Peaceful 78 78 87 76 75 77 81
Military 22 22 13 24 25 23 19
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

Block Quote

“A majority of New Zealanders (58%) say North Korea is either ‘Very likely’ (19%) or ‘Fairly likely’ (39%) to use a nuclear weapon – a higher result than for their counterparts across the Tasman in Australia – a total of 49% saying it is either ‘Fairly or Very likely’.

“In addition, over three-quarters of New Zealanders (78%) are in favour of a peaceful diplomatic solution to the stand-off rather than a military solution despite the heated rhetoric being traded primarily by the North Korean government and US President Donald J. Trump. There are concerns that North Korea is set to conduct further missile tests next week (October 18) to mark the start of China’s 19th Communist Party Congress.

“As New Zealand First gets set to choose who will form New Zealand’s next Government we can report that supporters of the major parties National and Labour are in close agreement on the questions with 60% of National supporters and 59% of Labour supporters saying it is likely North Korea will use a nuclear weapon and 75% of National supporters and 80% of Labour supporters wanting a peaceful diplomatic solution to the stand-off rather than a military solution.”

Finding No. 7346 – This special snap SMS Morgan Poll was conducted with a representative cross-section of 951 New Zealanders on September 27/28, 2017. They were asked “In your opinion how likely is it that North Korea will use a nuclear weapon?” and respondents were then asked “Which of these two options would you support with regards to North Korea and their ongoing nuclear and missile tests. Continue to try to reach a peaceful diplomatic solution or a peaceful diplomatic solution is not working; a military one is needed?”

Roy Morgan SMS Polling was extremely accurate at both the last two Federal Elections.

Results analysed by Roy Morgan Helix Personas are available on a subscription basis.

www.HelixPersonas.com.au

For further information:

Contact Office Mobile
Gary Morgan: +61 3 9224 5213 +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: +61 3 9224 5215 +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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