August 08, 2020

PM Jacinda Ardern maintains ‘crushing’ lead over new National leader Judith Collins

Topic: Federal Poll, Press Release, Public Opinion
Finding No: 8489
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In July support for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party was at 53.5% down 1% since June, but still more than double the support for National on 26.5%, down 0.5%, with just over a month to go before the election in mid-September.

If an election were held today Labour could govern without the help of either New Zealand First or the Greens.

Interviewing for this survey in July encompassed the period before and after Judith Collins became the new leader of National in mid-July after former leader Todd Muller’s shock resignation after less than two months in the role.

The early indications are that the new leader has had a negligible impact on support for National although a full month of interviewing in August will provide a clearer picture in the run-up to next month’s election.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a NZ wide cross-section of 899 electors during July. Of all electors surveyed 4% (down 2%) didn’t name a party. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

Support for the Labour/NZ First/Greens governing coalition remains strong at 63% in July

In July 63% of electors supported the Labour/NZ First/Greens governing coalition, down 2% since June. The governing coalition was well ahead of the Parliamentary opposition National/ Act NZ on only 33%, up 1% since June.

  • Support for Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peter’s NZ First was unchanged at only 1.5% in July, and more importantly down a significant 5.7% since their election result of 7.2% in 2017. NZ First are again below the party vote threshold of 5% in July and may be ejected from Parliament altogether at this year’s NZ Election if the voting intention translates into less than 5% of the vote.
  • Greens support was at 8%, down 1% since June, but still up 1.7% since their election result in 2017 and was comfortably above the 5% threshold.
  • Importantly, support for Act NZ continues to increase and was at 6.5% in July, up 1.5% since June and were this level of support repeated at the election it would be Act’s best election result since 2002 when the party scored over 7% of the vote and won 9 seats in Parliament.

A small minority of 4% of electors support other minor parties outside Parliament.

  • Of the parties outside Parliament The Opportunities Party (TOP) was unchanged at 1.5% in July and the Maori Party was at 0.5% (down 0.5%).


New Zealand Government Confidence Rating down, but still near highs at 152.5 in July

Despite a small decline, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating was at a very high 152.5 in July, down 1pt from 153.5 in June.

The majority (71.5%) of New Zealand electors (down 0.5% since June) said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 19% (up 0.5%) that said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The latest monthly ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was also barely changed in July at 104.3, down 0.2pts from June (104.5).

The stability in both indicators follows four months of large changes from March to June that drove Roy Morgan Government Confidence to a record high in April while the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating hit its lowest level since the Global Financial Crisis in the same month at only 84.8.

Michele Levine, CEO, Roy Morgan, says Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is set to be re-elected with an increased majority next month as National turn to yet another new leader in mid-July to try and revive their fortunes:

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“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s adept handling of the COVID-19 pandemic is still paying dividends with the Labour Party set to substantially increase its majority at next month’s election.

“Support for the Jacinda Ardern-led Labour Party was at 53.5% in July and still more than double that of National on 26.5%, now led by new leader Judith Collins. Collins became National’s third leader in 2020 in mid-July and today’s Roy Morgan Poll shows there has been no immediate bounce in support for National after their second change of leader this year.

“Labour’s coalition partners NZ First are in danger of missing out on a return to Parliament as their support has stagnated at only 1.5% for a second straight month. Support for NZ First is down 5.7% on their result at the 2017 NZ Election and may signal the end of the long political career of leader and Deputy Prime Minister Winston Peters. Peters was first elected to the Parliament more than forty years ago before current Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern was born.

“The biggest beneficiaries of the demise of NZ First are set to be Act NZ which has again increased its support in July, up 1.5% to 6.5%. Act NZ are set to achieve their best result at a New Zealand election since 2002 when the party received 7.1% of the vote and won nine seats.

“A strong performance from the right-wing Act NZ at this year’s election will strengthen the hand of David Seymour, and his new deputy leader Brooke van Velden, and place further pressure on National leader Judith Collins to rally support on the centre-right.”

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 23, 2017 General Election:

PARTY VOTE Labour NZ First Green Party* National ACT NZ TOP** Maori Party** Other
ELECTIONS % % % % % % % %
October 12, 1996* 28.19 13.35 10.10 33.87 6.10 n/a n/a 8.39
November 27, 1999 38.74 4.26 5.16 30.50 7.04 n/a n/a 14.30
July 27, 2002 41.26 10.38 7.00 20.93 7.14 n/a n/a 13.29
September 17, 2005 41.10 5.72 5.30 39.10 1.51 n/a 2.12 5.15
November 8, 2008 33.99 4.07 6.72 44.93 3.65 n/a 2.39 4.25
November 26, 2011 27.48 6.59 11.06 47.31 1.07 n/a 1.43 5.06
September 20, 2014 25.13 8.66 10.70 47.04 0.69 n/a 1.32 6.46
September 23, 2017 36.89 7.20 6.27 44.45 0.50 2.44 1.18 1.07
ROY MORGAN POLL
Oct 2-15, 2017 31 6.5 11 46 0.5 2 1.5 1.5
Oct 30-Nov 12, 2017 39.5 5 10 40.5 0.5 2 1.5 1
Nov 27-Dec 10, 2017 37 8 10 40.5 0.5 2.5 0.5 1
Jan 2-28, 2018 42.5 6 9 39 0.5 1.5 1 0.5
2020
January 2020 40 2.5 10.5 40 3 0.5 1.5 2
February 2020 40.5 5 10.5 37 3.5 1.5 1 1
March 2020 42.5 3 11.5 37 3.5 1 0.5 1
April 2020 55 2.5 7 30.5 2.5 0.5 1.5 0.5
May 2020 56.5 2.5 7 26.5 3.5 1 1.5 1.5
June 2020 54.5 1.5 9 27 5 1.5 1 0.5
July 2020 53.5 1.5 8 26.5 6.5 1.5 0.5 2

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties. **The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.

Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

Labour Party-led Government

(Labour, NZ First, Greens)

Parliamentary
Opposition Parties
(National & Act NZ)
Election, September 23, 2017* 50.36 44.95
ROY MORGAN NEW ZEALAND POLL    
Oct 2-15, 2017 48.5 46.5
NZ First under leader Winston Peters decides to support Labour’s Jacinda Ardern for PM
Oct 30-Nov 12, 2017 54.5 41
Nov 27-Dec 10, 2017 55 41
2020
January 2020 53 43
February 2020 56 40.5
March 2020 57 40.5
April 2020 64.5 33
National elects new leader Todd Muller to replace Simon Bridges – May 22, 2020
May 2020 66 30
June 2020 65 32
July 2020 63 33
National elects new leader Judith Collins to replace Todd Muller – July 14, 2020

*At the 2017 New Zealand Election the National-led Government returned only two parties (National & Act NZ) who received 44.95% of the vote compared to 50.36% that went to the three Parliamentary Opposition Parties: Labour, New Zealand First and the Greens.

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Govt.)
June 8-21,
2015
June 29-July 12,
2015
Aug 3-16,
2015
Aug 31-Sep 13,
2015
Sep 28-Oct 11,
2015
Oct 26- Nov 8,
2015
Nov 23-Dec 6,
2015
% % % % % % %
Right direction 62.5 51 54 58 53 60 59.5
Wrong direction 27 33 34 29.5 31 28.5 31
Roy Morgan GCR# 135.5 118 120 128.5 122 131.5 128.5
Can’t say 10.5 16 12 12.5 16 11.5 9.5
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Govt.)
Jan 4-17,
2016
Feb 1-14,
2016
Feb 29-Mar 13,
2016
Apr 4-17,
2016
May 2-15,
2016
May 30-June 12,
2016
Jul 4-17,
2016
Aug 8-21,
2016
% % % % % % % %
Right direction 59.5 56.5 61 57.5 59 54.5 57.5 58
Wrong direction 28 28.5 29 30.5 29 34 30.5 30.5
Roy Morgan GCR# 131.5 128 132 127 130 120.5 127 127.5
Can’t say 12.5 15 10 12 12 11.5 12 11.5
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Govt.)
Sep 5-18,
2016
Oct 10-23,
2016
Nov 7-20,
2016
Nov 28-Dec 11,
2016
Jan 3-16,
2017
Jan 30-Feb 12,
2017
Feb 27-Mar 12,
2017
April 3-16,
2017
% % % % % % % %
Right direction 52 55.5 65 58.5 63 63.5 61.5 58
Wrong direction 35 29 24 27.5 23 23.5 25.5 29
Roy Morgan GCR# 117 126.5 141 131 140 140 136 129
Can’t say 13 15.5 11 14 14 13 13 13
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (National Party Govt.)
May 1-14,
2017
May 29-Jun 11,
2017
Jun 26-Jul 9,
2017
July 31-Aug 13,
2017
Aug 28-Sep 10,
2017
Oct 2-15,
2017

 

% % % % % %
Right direction 60.5 61.5 63 62.5 62 58.5
Wrong direction 27 27 23.5 23.5 25 27.5
Roy Morgan GCR# 133.5 134.5 139.5 139 137 131

 

Can’t say 12.5 11.5 13.5 14 13 14
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100
NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates (Labour Party Govt.)
Oct 30-Nov 12,
2017
Nov 27-Dec 10,
2017
January
2020
February
2020
March
2020
April
2020
May
2020
June
2020
July
2020
% % % % % % % % %
Right direction 66.5 68 58 59 60.5 77 76 72 71.5
Wrong direction 20 18 29.5 27 25.5 14 17.5 18.5 19
Roy Morgan GCR# 146.5 150 128.5 132 135 163 158.5 153.5 152.5
Can’t say 13.5 14 12.5 14 14 9 6.5 9.5 9.5
TOTAL 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100  100

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Roy Morgan - Enquiries
Office: +61 (03) 9224 5309
askroymorgan@roymorgan.com

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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