August 02, 2022

Potential National/Act NZ (46%) coalition is just ahead of Labour/ Greens (44.5%) in July, but Maori party holds the balance of power

Topic: Federal Poll
Finding No: 9034
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Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows support tightening between a potential National/ Act NZ (46%) coalition now only 1.5% points ahead of the governing Labour/ Greens (44.5%). The gap is the smallest since Christopher Luxon became National Leader in late November.

Support for a potential National/Act NZ coalition dropped by 2.5% points to 46% in July while Luxon holidayed in Hawaii, despite social media posts claiming he was in New Zealand, while support for Labour/ Greens was up 1% point to 44.5%.

In July support for National fell by 4% points to 35% to its lowest since January 2022 while support for fellow right-leaning party Act NZ was up slightly by 1.5% points to 11%, its highest since February 2022. 

In contrast there were slight increases in support for Labour, up 0.5% points to 34% to its highest level so far this year and a similar increase for the Greens, up 0.5% points to 10.5%.

The drop in support for National appears to have largely benefited the Maori Party for which support increased by 2.5% points to 4% - its highest level of support for over a decade since April 2010.

In addition, a minority of 5.5% of electors (down 1% point) support other minor parties outside Parliament with support for New Zealand First unchanged at 1.5%, The Opportunities Party was up 0.5% points to 2.5% and support for the New Conservative Party was up 0.5% points to 1% in July.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 937 electors during July. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed only 5%, unchanged, did not name a party.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating up 2pts to 89.5 in July

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating increased by 2pts in July to 89.5. The indicator is now down a massive 31.5pts from a year ago in July 2021.

In July only 40.5% (up 1.5% points) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 51% (down 0.5% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

The latest ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for New Zealand was up 1.4pts to 81.9 and is now just below the latest Consumer Confidence figure in Australia of 84.1 on July 25-31, 2022.

Women continue to favour Labour/Greens while men firmly support National and Act NZ

Support for the Labour/ Greens coalition is strongest amongst older women aged 50+ at 53% compared to only 44% support for National/ Act NZ. For women aged 18-49 support more evenly split with 48.5% supporting Labour/ Greens just ahead of the 46.5% supporting National/Act NZ.

The smallest Parliamentary Opposition, the Maori Party, is now attracting the support of 5% of women including 9% of women aged 18-49 and 1% of women aged 50+.

There is a stark difference for men with 51.5% supporting National or Act NZ. In July 49.5% of men aged 18-49 supported National/ Act NZ compared to 37.5% that supported Labour/ Greens. For men aged 50+ there were 55% supporting National/ Act NZ compared to 38.5% supporting Labour/ Greens.

The Maori Party attracts the support of 3.5% of men including 4% support from men aged 18-49 and 2% support from men aged 50+.

Support for the Greens is far higher amongst both younger women and younger men than their older counterparts. Around one-in-six women aged 18-49 (17%) and men aged 18-49 (16.5%) support the Greens compared to only 4.5% of women aged 50+ and just 4% of men aged 50+.

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

 

Total Women Men
  All 18-49 50+ All 18-49 50+
  % % % % % % %
Labour 34 40 31.5 48.5 27.5 21 34.5
Greens 10.5 10.5 17 4.5 10.5 16.5 4
Labour/ Greens 44.5 50.5 48.5 53 38 37.5 38.5
               
National 35 33 30 37 37 34.5 40.5
Act NZ 11 7 7.5 6 14.5 15 14.5
Maori Party 4 5 9 1 3.5 4 2
National/ Act NZ/ Maori Party 50 45 46.5 44 55 53.5 57
 
Others 5.5 4.5 5 3 7 9 4.5
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
               
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
Right Direction 40.5 42 38.5 43 39 38.5 39.5
Wrong Direction 51 48 49.5 49 54.5 54.5 54.5
Government Confidence Rating 89.5 94 89 94 84.5 84 85
Can’t say 8.5 10 12 8 6.5 7 6
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating is clearly higher for women than men in July

The Roy Morgan New Zealand Government Confidence Rating was clearly higher for women than men in July, but the gap did narrow by 6 points on a month ago.

Among women now 48% (up 1.5% points) say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while only 42% (up 0.5% points) say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 94 (down 1pt).

Though down, a clear majority of men, 54.5% (down 2.5% points) now say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while just under two-fifths of men, 39% (up 2.5% points), say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’ – a Government Confidence Rating of 84.5 (up 5pts).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is highest for women aged 50+ at 94 while for women aged 18-49 it is lower at 89. There is little difference for men of different ages with those aged 18-49 having a Government Confidence Rating of 84 and slightly higher for men aged 50+ at 85.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the contest between the Labour/Greens coalition and a potential National/Act NZ coalition has narrowed with neither side in a position to win a majority given the latest results from July:

Block Quote

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows the lead for a potential National/Act NZ (46%) coalition over the governing Labour/Greens government (44.5%) is now at just 1.5% points – the closest the two sides have been since Christopher Luxon took over as National leader at the end of November 2021.

“The reason for the narrowing gap is the fall in support for National in July, down 4% points to 35% and at its lowest level of support since January 2022. The support that National has lost appears to have gone to fellow Parliamentary opposition parties Act NZ, up 1.5% points to 11%, and the Maori Party, up 2.5% points to 4%.

“This is the highest level of support for the Maori Party in well over a decade since April 2010 when John Key was the Prime Minister. Support for the Maori Party is strongest amongst young people with 9% of women aged 18-49 and 4% of men aged 18-49 supporting the party.

“The decision by Opposition leader Christopher Luxon to take a family holiday to Hawaii during mid-July is understandable during the depth of a New Zealand winter. However, for Luxon’s social media to post videos of Luxon claiming to be ‘In Te Puke, the heart of kiwifruit country’ while he was holidaying in Hawaii has been labelled as a ‘debacle’ by media commentators.

“The mishandling of Christopher Luxon’s family holiday and the related social media posts brings to the fore the key issues of trust and distrust in driving support for political leaders.

“Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has built her leadership on being the person New Zealanders can trust to deal with challenges as varied as the COVID-19 pandemic, the Christchurch shooting and various natural disasters to strike the country such as the eruption of the White Island volcano.

“If Christopher Luxon’s missteps in recent weeks result in people distrusting the National Leader and questioning his honesty, or the honesty of the team around him, he will come under renewed scrutiny as an alternative Prime Minister heading towards next year’s election.

“The instability in the Greens leadership has also been in the political spotlight over the last week although the issue has had little impact on their polling results. Long-term Greens co-leader James Shaw was ousted from the position last week after 30% of delegates at the Green Party AGM voted they had no confidence in Shaw’s leadership.

“The result means the co-leadership position is to be voted on again in coming weeks. Shaw has vowed to re-nominate for the position but there are many in the party who regard Chloe Swarbrick as the rising star of the party. If Swarbrick were to put her hand up for the leadership, she would be likely to win the contest with the strong support of the party faithful.”

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-22

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – July 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 934.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – July 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 934.

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – July 2022.Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 934.

Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

Labour Party-led Government

(Labour, Greens)

Parliamentary
Opposition Parties
(National, Act NZ & Maori)
NZ Election, October 17, 2020* 57.87 34.33
ROY MORGAN NEW ZEALAND POLL    
Labour wins the NZ Election and, despite securing a majority of seats in Parliament,
signs a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens – October 31, 2020
2021
January 2021 58.5 36
February 2021 58.5 37.5
March 2021 57.5 35
April 2021 55 41
May 2021 56 39
June 2021 51 43.5
July 2021 49.5 44.5
August 2021 51.5 40.5
September 2021 55 41
October 2021 50 44
November 2021 46.5 47
December 2021 44 51
2022
January 2022 43.5 51
February 2022 43 51.5
March 2022 42.5 49
April 2022 44 49
May 2022 43 51
June 2022 43.5 50
July 2022 44.5 50

*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%).

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the October 17, 2020, General Election:

National-led Governments (& supporting parties) are highlighted in Blue. Labour-led Governments (& supporting parties) are highlighted in Red.

PARTY VOTE Labour Green Party* National ACT NZ Maori Party** TOP** NZ First Other
ELECTIONS % % % % % % % %
October 12, 1996* 28.19 10.10 33.87 6.10 n/a n/a 13.35 8.39
November 27, 1999 38.74 5.16 30.50 7.04 n/a n/a 4.26 14.30
July 27, 2002 41.26 7.00 20.93 7.14 n/a n/a 10.38 13.29
September 17, 2005 41.10 5.30 39.10 1.51 2.12 n/a 5.72 5.15
November 8, 2008 33.99 6.72 44.93 3.65 2.39 n/a 4.07 4.25
November 26, 2011 27.48 11.06 47.31 1.07 1.43 n/a 6.59 5.06
September 20, 2014 25.13 10.70 47.04 0.69 1.32 n/a 8.66 6.46
September 23, 2017 36.89 6.27 44.45 0.50 1.18 2.44 7.20 1.07
October 17, 2020 50.01 7.86 25.58 7.59 1.17 1.51 2.60 3.70
ROY MORGAN POLL
December 2020 44 10.5 28 10 2 2 2 1.5
2021
January 2021 47 11.5 25 9 2 1.5 2 2
February 2021 45 13.5 29 7.5 1 1 1.5 1.5
March 2021 45.5 12 23 11 1 2 2.5 3
April 2021 41.5 13.5 29.5 9 2.5 0.5 1 2.5
May 2021 45 11 28.5 9 1.5 1.5 2 1.5
June 2021 38.5 12.5 29.5 11.5 2.5 2 1.5 2
July 2021 39.5 10 29 13 2.5 3 2 1
August 2021 39.5 12 25 13 2.5 2 2.5 3.5
September 2021 45.5 9.5 23 16 2 1.5 1.5 1
October 2021 39.5 10.5 26 16 2 1 2.5 2.5
November 2021 36 10.5 26.5 17.5 3 1.5 2.5 2.5
December 2021 35.5 8.5 31.5 18.5 1 1 2 2
2022
January 2022 33 10.5 35 13.5 2.5 1.5 2.5 1.5
February 2022 32 11 38 11.5 2 1 2 2.5
March 2022 32 10.5 38 9 2 1.5 4 3
April 2022 33.5 10.5 37.5 10 1.5 2 2.5 2.5
May 2022 31.5 11.5 40 10 1 1 3 2
June 2022 33.5 10 39 9.5 1.5 2 1.5 3
July 2022 34 10.5 35 11 4 2.5 1.5 1.5

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties.
**The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Seat Predictor

The following table compares the projected seats to be won by the various New Zealand political parties based on the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the results from previous MMP Elections:

National-led Governments (& supporting parties) are highlighted in Blue. Labour-led Governments (& supporting parties) are highlighted in Red.

SEAT COUNT Labour Green Party* National ACT NZ Maori Party** NZ First Other
ELECTIONS % % % % % % %
October 12, 1996* 37 0 44 8 0 17 14*
November 27, 1999 49 7 39 9 0 5 11*
July 27, 2002 52 9 27 9 0 13 10*
September 17, 2005 50 6 48 2 4 7 4*
November 8, 2008 43 9 58 5 5 0 2*
November 26, 2011 34 14 59 1 3 8 2*
September 20, 2014 32 14 60 1 2 11 1*
September 23, 2017 46 8 56 1 0 9 0
October 17, 2020 65 10 33 10 2 0 0
ROY MORGAN

SEAT PREDICTOR

2021
January 2021 60 15 32 11 2 0 0
February 2021 56 17 36 10 1 0 0
March 2021 59 16 30 14 1 0 0
April 2021 52 17 37 11 3 0 0
May 2021 57 14 36 11 2 0 0
June 2021 49 16 37 15 3 0 0
July 2021 50 13 37 17 3 0 0
August 2021 51 16 33 17 4 0 0
September 2021 57 12 29 20 2 0 0
October 2021 51 13 33 20 3 0 0
November 2021 46 14 34 22 4 0 0
December 2021 45 11 40 23 1 0 0
2022
January 2022 42 13 45 17 3 0 0
February 2022 41 14 48 15 2 0 0
March 2022 42 14 50 12 2 0 0
April 2022 43 13 49 13 2 0 0
May 2022 40 15 51 13 1 0 0
June 2022 43 13 50 12 2 0 0
July 2022 43 13 45 14 5 0 0

*Other seats won at elections from 1996 - 2014 include: 1996 – 14 seats: Alliance (13 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 1999 – 11 seats: Alliance (10 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 2002 – 10 seats: United Future (8 seats) & Progressive (2 seats); 2005 – 4 seats: United Future (3 seats) & Progressive (1 seat); 2008 – 2 seats: Progressive (1 seat) & United Future (1 seat); 2011 – 2 seats: United Future (1 seat) & Mana Party (1 seat); 2014 – 1 seat: United Future (1 seat).

Fourth National Government (1990 – 1999): 1996 NZ Election: National (44 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (17 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.

Fifth Labour Government (1999-2008): 1999 NZ Election: Labour (49 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with Alliance (10 seats) and the support of the Greens (7 seats) for a total of 66 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2002 NZ Election: Labour (52 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (2 seats) and confidence and supply from United Future (8 seats) for a total of 62 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2005 NZ Election: Labour (50 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (1 seat) and confidence and supply from New Zealand First (7 seats) and United Future (3 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).


Fifth National Government (2008-2017): 2008 NZ Election: National (58 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Act NZ (5 seats), the Maori Party (5 seats) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 69 seats in the 122 seat Parliament (including 2 ‘overhang’ seats). 2011 NZ Election: National (59 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (3 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat). 2014 NZ Election: National (60 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (2 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).

Sixth Labour Government (2017-?): 2017 NZ Election: Labour (46 seats) ‘wins’ the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (9 seats) and the confidence and supply of the Greens (8 seats) for a total of 63 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2020 NZ Election: Labour (65 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the cooperation of the Greens (10 seats) for a total of 75 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

Related Findings

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