July 08, 2022

Potential National/Act NZ (48.5%) coalition leads by 5% points over Labour/Greens (43.5%) in June

Topic: Federal Poll
Finding No: 9014
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Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows support for a potential National/Act NZ coalition down by 1.5% points to 48.5% in June. The two opposition parties are still 5% points ahead of the governing Labour/Greens on 43.5% (up 0.5% points).

Support for National was down by 1% point in June to 39% while support for fellow right-leaning party Act NZ fell by 0.5% points to 9.5%. However, support for the Maori Party increased by 0.5% points to 1.5%.

In contrast there was an increase in support for Labour which increased 2% points to 33.5% while support for the Greens was down by 1.5% points to 10%.

A minority of 6.5% of electors (up 0.5% points) support other minor parties outside Parliament with support for New Zealand First down 1.5% points to 1.5%, The Opportunities Party was up 1% point to 2% and support for the New Conservative Party unchanged at 0.5% in June.

This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile – with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 947 electors during June. Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” Of all electors surveyed only 5%, up 2% points, did not name a party.

New Zealand Government Confidence Rating falls 2.5pts to 87.5 in June

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating fell by 2.5pts in June to 87.5. The indicator is now down a massive 36.5pts from a year ago in June 2021.

In June only 39% (down 1% point) of electors said New Zealand was ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 51.5% (up 1.5% points) who said New Zealand was ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Women continue to favour Labour/Greens while men firmly support National and Act NZ

Support for the Labour/ Greens coalition is strongest amongst young women aged 18-49 at 56.5% compared to only 30.5% support for National/ Act NZ. However, for women aged 50+ support is at 50.5% for National/Act NZ and is still ahead of Labour/Greens on 44.5%.

The smallest Parliamentary Opposition, the Maori Party, attracts the support of 2% of women including 3.5% of women aged 18-49 and 1% of women aged 50+.


There is a stark difference for men with 57% supporting National or Act NZ. In June 51.5% of men aged 18-49 supported National/ Act NZ compared to 39.5% that supported Labour/ Greens. For men aged 50+ there were 63.5% supporting National/ Act NZ compared to only 32.5% supporting Labour/ Greens.


The Maori Party attracts only 1% support from men including 1% support from men aged 18-49 but only 0.5% support of men aged 50+.


Support for the Greens is far higher amongst both younger women and younger men than their older counterparts. Nearly one-in-six women aged 18-49 (14%) and men aged 18-49 (15%) support the Greens compared to only 8% of women aged 50+ and just 2% of men aged 50+. 

Party vote analysis by Gender & Age

Total Women Men
  All 18-49 50+ All 18-49 50+
  % % % % % % %
Labour 33.5 39.5 42.5 36.5 27.5 24.5 30.5
Greens 10 11 14 8 8.5 15 2
Labour/ Greens 43.5 50.5 56.5 44.5 36 39.5 32.5
               
National 39 36 28.5 43.5 42 35.5 49.5
Act NZ 9.5 4.5 2 7 15 16 14
Maori Party 1.5 2 3.5 1 1 1 0.5
National/ Act NZ/ Maori Party 50 42.5 34 51.5 58 52.5 64
 
Others 6.5 7 9.5 4 6 8 3.5
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100
               
Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating
Right Direction 39 41.5 40.5 43 36.5 37.5 34.5
Wrong Direction 51.5 46.5 45 49 57 55 58.5
Government Confidence Rating 87.5 95 95.5 94 79.5 82.5 76
Can’t say 9.5 12 14.5 8 6.5 7.5 7
Total 100 100 100 100 100 100 100

*The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Kiwis who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating dipped again in June to equal record low of 87.5

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating fell for both genders in June and was at 95 for women, down 1pt on a month ago. There was an even larger deterioration among men, down by 4pts to 79.5.
Among women now 45% say ‘New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’, while only 40.5% say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’.
In contrast a clear majority of men, 57% now say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’ while just over a third of men, 36.5%, say New Zealand is ‘heading in the right direction’.
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is highest for women aged 18-49 at 95.5 while for women aged 50+ it is slightly lower at 94. There is a slightly larger difference for men with those aged 18-49 having a Government Confidence Rating of just 82.5 and only 76 for men aged 50+.

Michele Levine, CEO Roy Morgan, says the potential National/Act NZ coalition (48.5%) has retained a clear lead over the governing Labour/Greens government (43.5%) in June – although the lead of 5% points is down from the 7% points lead a month ago:

Block Quote

“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows the lead for a potential National/Act NZ (48.5%) coalition over the governing Labour/Greens government (43.5%) is now at 5% points – the same margin as the start of the year in January 2022.

“Since January 2022 support for National has increased by 4% points to 39% while support for the right-leaning Act NZ is down 4% points to 9.5%. However, the combination of the two right-wing parties has kept its lead throughout the year as the Labour/Greens governing coalition has failed to make any headway.

“The economic conditions have been tough for many so far during 2022 with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increasing interest rates by 1.75% points since October 2021 to 2% in May 2022. The increases in interest rates have been done to counter high levels of inflation which reached a high of 6.9% in the year to March 2022 – the highest inflation for over 30 years since June 1990.

“The high inflation and increasing interest rates have also had other impacts including significantly cooling the national housing market. Since the interest rate increasing cycle began in late 2021 housing prices in the largest city of Auckland and the national capital of Wellington have both declined by over 10% – with the falls set to continue throughout the rest of the year.

“In addition to the falls in the housing market the New Zealand economy also contracted by 0.2% points in the March quarter 2022 meaning the economy could already be in a technical recession if there is a second consecutive drop in quarterly growth in the just completed June quarter 2022.

“The drop in house prices, and the negative growth so far this year, are having an impact on other key indicators as well. The latest Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating for New Zealand was down 2.5pts to an equal record low of 87.5 in June while the latest ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating fell 1.8pts to 80.5.

“All the economic indicators are pointing in the wrong direction for Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s government which is facing re-election later next year. If this month’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll results are converted into a distribution of seats at next year’s New Zealand Election a National-Act NZ coalition would win 62 seats compared to 56 seats for a Labour-Greens combination.”

New Zealand Party Vote: 2020-22

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – June 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 934.

New Zealand Party Vote: NZ Govt. v Parliamentary Opposition

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – June 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 934.

Roy Morgan NZ Government Confidence Rating vs. ANZ-Roy Morgan NZ Consumer Confidence

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand Single Source. January 2020 – June 2022.
Base: New Zealand electors aged 18+. Average interviews per month = 934.

Two-Party Preferred: Labour Party-led Government vs. Parliamentary Opposition Parties

Labour Party-led Government

(Labour, Greens)

Parliamentary
Opposition Parties
(National, Act NZ & Maori)
NZ Election, October 17, 2020* 57.87 34.33
ROY MORGAN NEW ZEALAND POLL    
Labour wins the NZ Election and, despite securing a majority of seats in Parliament,
signs a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens – October 31, 2020
2021
January 2021 58.5 36
February 2021 58.5 37.5
March 2021 57.5 35
April 2021 55 41
May 2021 56 39
June 2021 51 43.5
July 2021 49.5 44.5
August 2021 51.5 40.5
September 2021 55 41
October 2021 50 44
November 2021 46.5 47
December 2021 44 51
2022
January 2022 43.5 51
February 2022 43 51.5
March 2022 42.5 49
April 2022 44 49
May 2022 43 51
June 2022 43.5 50

*At the 2020 NZ Election the Labour party secured 50.01% of the vote which was enough to govern in their own right but Labour opted to sign a ‘Cooperation Agreement’ with the Greens, who won 7.86% of the vote. There were three Parties elected to Parliament not in Government led by National (25.58%), Act NZ (7.59%) and the Maori Party (1.17%). 

Voting Intention Summary

The following table compares the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the October 17, 2020, General Election:

National-led Governments (& supporting parties) are highlighted in Blue. Labour-led Governments (& supporting parties) are highlighted in Red.

PARTY VOTE Labour Green Party* National ACT NZ Maori Party** TOP** NZ First Other
ELECTIONS % % % % % % % %
October 12, 1996* 28.19 10.10 33.87 6.10 n/a n/a 13.35 8.39
November 27, 1999 38.74 5.16 30.50 7.04 n/a n/a 4.26 14.30
July 27, 2002 41.26 7.00 20.93 7.14 n/a n/a 10.38 13.29
September 17, 2005 41.10 5.30 39.10 1.51 2.12 n/a 5.72 5.15
November 8, 2008 33.99 6.72 44.93 3.65 2.39 n/a 4.07 4.25
November 26, 2011 27.48 11.06 47.31 1.07 1.43 n/a 6.59 5.06
September 20, 2014 25.13 10.70 47.04 0.69 1.32 n/a 8.66 6.46
September 23, 2017 36.89 6.27 44.45 0.50 1.18 2.44 7.20 1.07
October 17, 2020 50.01 7.86 25.58 7.59 1.17 1.51 2.60 3.70
ROY MORGAN POLL
December 2020 44 10.5 28 10 2 2 2 1.5
2021
January 2021 47 11.5 25 9 2 1.5 2 2
February 2021 45 13.5 29 7.5 1 1 1.5 1.5
March 2021 45.5 12 23 11 1 2 2.5 3
April 2021 41.5 13.5 29.5 9 2.5 0.5 1 2.5
May 2021 45 11 28.5 9 1.5 1.5 2 1.5
June 2021 38.5 12.5 29.5 11.5 2.5 2 1.5 2
July 2021 39.5 10 29 13 2.5 3 2 1
August 2021 39.5 12 25 13 2.5 2 2.5 3.5
September 2021 45.5 9.5 23 16 2 1.5 1.5 1
October 2021 39.5 10.5 26 16 2 1 2.5 2.5
November 2021 36 10.5 26.5 17.5 3 1.5 2.5 2.5
December 2021 35.5 8.5 31.5 18.5 1 1 2 2
2022
January 2022 33 10.5 35 13.5 2.5 1.5 2.5 1.5
February 2022 32 11 38 11.5 2 1 2 2.5
March 2022 32 10.5 38 9 2 1.5 4 3
April 2022 33.5 10.5 37.5 10 1.5 2 2.5 2.5
May 2022 31.5 11.5 40 10 1 1 3 2
June 2022 33.5 10 39 9.5 1.5 2 1.5 3

*The 1996 Election was the first New Zealand Election contested via MMP (Mixed Member Proportional). At the 1996 Election the Greens Party contested as part of the “Alliance” political grouping with four other political parties.
**The Maori Party was launched in July 2004. The Opportunities Party (TOP) was launched in November 2016.

Roy Morgan New Zealand Seat Predictor

The following table compares the projected seats to be won by the various New Zealand political parties based on the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the results from previous MMP Elections:

National-led Governments (& supporting parties) are highlighted in Blue. Labour-led Governments (& supporting parties) are highlighted in Red.

SEAT COUNT Labour Green Party* National ACT NZ Maori Party** NZ First Other
ELECTIONS % % % % % % %
October 12, 1996* 37 0 44 8 0 17 14*
November 27, 1999 49 7 39 9 0 5 11*
July 27, 2002 52 9 27 9 0 13 10*
September 17, 2005 50 6 48 2 4 7 4*
November 8, 2008 43 9 58 5 5 0 2*
November 26, 2011 34 14 59 1 3 8 2*
September 20, 2014 32 14 60 1 2 11 1*
September 23, 2017 46 8 56 1 0 9 0
October 17, 2020 65 10 33 10 2 0 0
ROY MORGAN

SEAT PREDICTOR

2021
January 2021 60 15 32 11 2 0 0
February 2021 56 17 36 10 1 0 0
March 2021 59 16 30 14 1 0 0
April 2021 52 17 37 11 3 0 0
May 2021 57 14 36 11 2 0 0
June 2021 49 16 37 15 3 0 0
July 2021 50 13 37 17 3 0 0
August 2021 51 16 33 17 4 0 0
September 2021 57 12 29 20 2 0 0
October 2021 51 13 33 20 3 0 0
November 2021 46 14 34 22 4 0 0
December 2021 45 11 40 23 1 0 0
2022
January 2022 42 13 45 17 3 0 0
February 2022 41 14 48 15 2 0 0
March 2022 42 14 50 12 2 0 0
April 2022 43 13 49 13 2 0 0
May 2022 40 15 51 13 1 0 0
June 2022 43 13 50 12 2 0 0

*Other seats won at elections from 1996 - 2014 include: 1996 – 14 seats: Alliance (13 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 1999 – 11 seats: Alliance (10 seats) & United NZ (1 seat); 2002 – 10 seats: United Future (8 seats) & Progressive (2 seats); 2005 – 4 seats: United Future (3 seats) & Progressive (1 seat); 2008 – 2 seats: Progressive (1 seat) & United Future (1 seat); 2011 – 2 seats: United Future (1 seat) & Mana Party (1 seat); 2014 – 1 seat: United Future (1 seat).

Fourth National Government (1990 – 1999): 1996 NZ Election: National (44 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (17 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.


Fifth Labour Government (1999-2008): 1999 NZ Election: Labour (49 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with Alliance (10 seats) and the support of the Greens (7 seats) for a total of 66 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2002 NZ Election: Labour (52 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (2 seats) and confidence and supply from United Future (8 seats) for a total of 62 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2005 NZ Election: Labour (50 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs in coalition with the Progressive Coalition (1 seat) and confidence and supply from New Zealand First (7 seats) and United Future (3 seats) for a total of 61 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).


Fifth National Government (2008-2017): 2008 NZ Election: National (58 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Act NZ (5 seats), the Maori Party (5 seats) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 69 seats in the 122 seat Parliament (including 2 ‘overhang’ seats). 2011 NZ Election: National (59 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (3 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat). 2014 NZ Election: National (60 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the confidence and supply of Maori Party (2 seats), Act NZ (1 seat) and United Future (1 seat) for a total of 64 seats in the 121 seat Parliament (including 1 ‘overhang’ seat).

Sixth Labour Government (2017-?): 2017 NZ Election: Labour (46 seats) ‘wins’ the NZ Election and governs in coalition with NZ First (9 seats) and the confidence and supply of the Greens (8 seats) for a total of 63 seats in the 120 seat Parliament. 2020 NZ Election: Labour (65 seats) wins the NZ Election and governs with the cooperation of the Greens (10 seats) for a total of 75 seats in the 120 seat Parliament.

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Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. Margin of error gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size Percentage Estimate
40% – 60% 25% or 75% 10% or 90% 5% or 95%
1,000 ±3.0 ±2.7 ±1.9 ±1.3
5,000 ±1.4 ±1.2 ±0.8 ±0.6
7,500 ±1.1 ±1.0 ±0.7 ±0.5
10,000 ±1.0 ±0.9 ±0.6 ±0.4
20,000 ±0.7 ±0.6 ±0.4 ±0.3
50,000 ±0.4 ±0.4 ±0.3 ±0.2

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