Roy Morgan Update September 3, 2024: ALP support up, Consumer Confidence & Inflation Expectations

In this week's update, we present the latest data on Primary Voting Intention, Consumer Confidence & Inflation Expectations.

Welcome to the Roy Morgan Weekly Update.

This week there’s been a slight move back to the ALP, after the Albanese Government’s strong stance on putting the CFMEU into administration.

The bigger news is Inflation Expectations fell significantly this week.

This week Inflation Expectations dropped 0.2% points to 4.6% - this is the lowest level for nearly three years since November 2021.

So, the ANZ-Roy Morgan Inflation Expectations indicator shows Australians expect annual inflation to be 4.6% per annum over the next two years.

This result came after last week’s release of the official ABS monthly inflation figure for July which showed a decline in official inflation – down 0.3% to 3.5%.

If this trend continues for another two months inflation will finally be within the Reserve Bank’s target range of 2-3% by September.

The latest Roy Morgan survey shows the ALP on 50.5% (up 1%) just ahead of the Coalition on 49.5% on a two-party preferred basis. Although the major parties have again swapped positions - if a Federal Election were held now, the result would be ‘too close to call’.

Either major party, the ALP or Coalition, would require the support of minor parties and independents to form a minority government.

The result once again highlights the importance of preference flows to determine the overall two-party preferred result.

Primary voting support moved against the Coalition this week, down 3.5% to 36%. However, the party still retains a lead over the ALP on 30.5% (up 1%).

Importantly, over a third of electors, 33.5%, up 2.5%, say they will support minor parties and independents – a higher result than the last election at 31.7%.

The big beneficiary was One Nation, up 2% to 6% while the Greens were unchanged at 13%.

Support for Independents increased 0.5% to 9.5% while support for Other Parties was unchanged at 5%.

Government Confidence (whether people think the country is going in the right or wrong direction) dropped to its lowest in three months – down 5.5 points to only 72.5 – well below the neutral level of 100.

Now a clear majority of 57% of Australians say the country is going in the wrong direction (up 3.5%), while only 29.5% say the country is heading in the right direction.

ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence was virtually unchanged at 83.1 this week and has been very stable since mid-July.

This is the seventh week in a row Consumer Confidence has been above 80 and the measure has averaged 83.1 during this period – the same as its rating this week.

However, despite this recent improvement, looking longer-term Consumer Confidence has now spent a record 83 weeks (since February 2023) below the level of 85.

In New Zealand both key indicators – Government Confidence and Consumer Confidence – increased in August to reach their highest levels for six months.

Roy Morgan Government Confidence increased 7.5 points to 97.5 in August and ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence, the measure of consumer’s economic sentiment, increased 4.3 points to 92.2.

Importantly, there was good news on the economic front in August with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cutting interest rates for the first time since March 2020.

Historically, cutting interest rates is one of the key factors that boosts Government Confidence and Consumer Confidence – and this was confirmed with the results for August.

This move also provided a boost in support for the National-led Government.

The Roy Morgan Poll shows an improvement for both major parties in August at the expense of the smaller parties.

There was a good result for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s National-led Government now with its biggest lead for four months.

Support for National increased 3.5% to 36% while support for the main Opposition Labour increased 2.5% to 26.5% - a gap of 9.5% points between the two major parties.

While support for the major parties is up 6%, an even greater share of electors (37.5%) support one of the minor parties including the Greens, ACT, New Zealand First and the Maori Party.