Support for ‘No’ case now at 46% well ahead of ‘Yes’ case on 37% as early referendum voting starts

The latest Roy Morgan poll shows 46% of Australians (up 2% in a week) now say they will vote ‘No’ to establish an ‘Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice’ compared to only 37% (down 2%) say they would vote ‘Yes’ and a further 17% (unchanged) are ‘Undecided’ on how they would vote.

Respondents around Australia were asked: “Next month’s (Asked on September 25-30, 2023)/This month’s (Asked on October 1, 2023) referendum proposes a law to alter the Constitution to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice. At the referendum to be held on October 14, will you vote yes, no, or are you undecided?”

If ‘Undecided’ respondents are removed the split in favour of the ‘No’ vote is 56% (up 3% in a week) cf. 44% (down 3%). However, past experience with surveys conducted before previous referenda shows that ‘Undecided’ voters are far more likely to end up as a ‘No’ rather than a ‘Yes’ vote meaning the actual figure is likely to be a larger majority in favour of ‘No’ than indicated here.

This special Roy Morgan online survey was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 909 Australian electors aged 18+ from Monday September 25 - Sunday October 1, 2023. Interviewing for this surveying is continuing through until the end of this week.

Next week Roy Morgan will be releasing the full results of this survey, including detailed State-by-State, Gender, Age and Party support breakdowns.

Victoria and Tasmania are only States in which more respondents say they will vote ‘Yes’ to ‘The Voice’

It's worth noting that the road to a successful referendum demands not only a majority of people nationally but also a majority of people in a majority of states (at least four out of six).

The results of this Roy Morgan online survey on ‘The Voice’ show that more people in Victoria and Tasmania say they will vote ‘Yes’ to ‘The Voice’ – the only two States with more in favour, although the result in Tasmania is based on a small sample.

The strongest opposition to ‘The Voice’ is in Queensland in which a clear majority of respondents say they will vote ‘No’ at the referendum.

In the three other mainland States of New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia there are pluralities of 43-49% of voters say they will vote ‘No’ to ‘The Voice’.

The ‘gender gap’ continues with a majority of men opposed and women narrowly in favour

There remains a clear gender split when it comes to support of ‘The Voice’. A slim majority of men say they will vote ‘No’ to ‘The Voice’ while in comparison there are slightly more women who say they will vote ‘Yes’ rather than ‘No’.

For further comment or more information contact:
Michele Levine 0411 129 093 or Gary Morgan 0411 129 094 or email askroymorgan@roymorgan.com.

Australians surveyed were each asked the following question:

• “Next month’s (Asked from September 25 – 30, 2023)/ This month’s (Asked on October 1, 2023) referendum proposes a law to alter the Constitution to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice. At the referendum to be held on October 14, will you vote yes, no, or are you undecided?” ‘Yes’ 37% (down 2% points since late September 2023) cf. ‘No’ 46% (up 2% points) cf. ‘Undecided’ 17% (unchanged).
• Previous question asked in December 2022, April 2023 and May 2023 was: “If a referendum were held today that establishes an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice to Parliament would you vote Yes, No or are you undecided?”

This special Roy Morgan online survey was conducted with an Australia-wide cross-section of 909 Australian electors aged 18+ from Monday September 25 - Sunday October 1, 2023. Interviewing for this surveying is continuing through until the end of this week.

See detailed tables on the results of all four previous surveys on ‘The Voice to Parliament’ conducted in December 2022, April 2023, May 2023 & September 2023.